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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | Will I exercise every single day next week?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I receive my manifold markets t-shirt?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester?(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I stick to my lecture protocol and preparation next week?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 230_041 Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Evan Li’s text to his EX gain a response(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (GRB 170817A)(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 231_052 Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever. Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey | Crypto | 28% | ||
| 0.56 | Trailer for Star Fox movie or tv show before 2029?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | This Market will Resolve at number of Traders%(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 22% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 237_026 The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. Peter Diamandis | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-29 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | Will a wild card team win the MLB World Series in 2026?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will New Glenn 7x2 ever fly again?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | SPC_013 As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... Jared Isaacman | Space | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-28 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-27 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | Will UFC Freedom 250 End Early due to a Disruption/Safety Concern?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Daniel Negreanu win a World Series of Poker Bracelet in 2026(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | New elected president of Iran before EOM May 2027?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Solana close below $76 at any day in June?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader meet in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will Portugal win the VM in football(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will Portugal win the VM in football(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (cosmic microwave background)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (cosmic microwave background)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin | Consumer | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Elliott Lehrer and Caroline Ellison go on a date in June?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.56 | Will greyhound racing be banned in the US by the end of 2027?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Cosmic Microwave Background)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Cosmic Microwave Background)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will anything be done about the market spam and referral fraud?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | Will 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Lionel Messi get another hat trick at the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-19 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Slovakia win the ice hockey world championship 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 236_014 Publicly traded companies will fire white collar workers very quickly Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Do you like 4% odds?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 237_014 Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. Unnamed friend (accountant manager) | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 234_047 Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_004 Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | |
| 0.56 | Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 234_047 Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | Do you like 96% odds?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 237_014 Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. Unnamed friend (accountant manager) | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% |