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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will a Midjourney Scanner be available for paid public full-body scans in the US by Dec 31, 2027?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-18	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Will Donald Trump Tweet within the next 7 days?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-18	234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-18	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.59	G-IdiomAlign: A Gloss-Pivoted Benchmark for Cross-Lingual Idiom Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Graph Grounded Cross Attention Transformer Neural Network for Structurally Constrained Full Event Sequence Generation in Predictive Process Monitoring	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	NeuralMUSIC: A Hybrid Neural-Subspace Framework for Robot Sound Source Localization	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	TMR-GGNN: Credit Card Fraud Detection based on Time-Aware Multi-Relational Guided Graph Neural Network	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.59	JourneyFormer: Encoding Airbnb Guest Journey with Sequence Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-17	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Hierarchical Attention via Domain Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Pointwise is Pointless? A Multimodal Ablation Study for Precipitation Nowcasting with Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	MOLAR: Learning Multimodal Molecular Representations from Noisy Labels	arxiv 2026-06-16	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	Beyond Scalar Scores: Exploring LLM-based Metrics for Clinical Significance Evaluation in Radiology Reports	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	FAST-LIVGO: A Degeneracy-Robust LiDAR-Inertial-Visual-GNSS Fusion Odometry	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Self-Supervised Mask-Aware Transformers for Fault-Tolerant FBG Force Sensing in Minimally Invasive Surgical Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	The Collins-Soper kernel from a vacuum soft function	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.59	Starmer out by June 22, 2026?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Spread: Haiti (-1.5)(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	FlowEdit: Associative Memory for Lifelong Pronunciation Adaptation in Flow-Matching TTS	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	Interpretable Sperm Morphology Classification via Attention-Guided Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	The Register Gap: A Meaning Intelligence Framework for Nigerian Public Discourse	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Variable-Length Tokenization via Learnable Global Merging for Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-18	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	Triangular Consistency as a Universal Constraint for Learning Optical Flow	arxiv 2026-06-18	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.59	When, Where, and How: Adaptive Binning for Tabular Self-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	FineREX: Fine-Tuned NER-RE for Human Smuggling Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Concept Flow Models: Anchoring Concept-Based Reasoning with Hierarchical Bottlenecks	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	Variational Consensus Monte Carlo for Bayesian Mixture	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Clusters are All You Need: Pre-Training the Tsetlin Machine with Semantic Clusters from Language Models for Interpretability	arxiv 2026-06-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	MMD-SLAM: Structure-Enhanced Multi-Meta Gaussian Distribution-Guided Visual SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Reheating as a variational probe of cosmological observables	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Starmer out by June 26, 2026?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Starmer out by June 26, 2026?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Starmer out by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Leevoid go to the gym on the 21st of June 2026?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-20	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will I stay in masters conditional on Starmer not being out before July?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	With the new peace talks with Iran, will interest rate rates lower in the next eight weeks?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-19	232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	46%
0.59	Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: Egypt (-1.5)(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.59	Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Giancarlo Stanton have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will silver hit $60/ oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-22	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.59	Will Los Angeles AQI exceed 151 at least once between June 27 – July 3, 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-20	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt	Education	37%
0.59	Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	PsyBridge: A Hybrid Intelligent Framework for Multi-Dimensional Mental Health Assessment and Decision Support	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	ScalingAttention: Discovering Intrinsic Sparse Attention Topology for Video Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	DBT-Bleed: Dual-Branch Temporal Modeling with Key-Frame Selection for Surgical Bleeding Detection	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.59	Interpretable Uncertainty Routing Separating Emotion Ambiguity from Distribution Shift in Facial Expression Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	MORL-A2C: Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning Reranker for Optimizing Healthiness in MOPI-HFRS	arxiv 2026-06-22	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Simulation-Free Estimation of Traffic Flows from Sparse Count Data	arxiv 2026-06-22	243_018 Fleet turnover from human-driven to autonomous will take a very long time due to 10+ year avg car life Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.59	A Novel Approach to Temporal QoS Estimation via Extended Kalman Filter-Incorporated Latent Feature Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	PromptDyG: Test-Time Prompt Adaptation on Dynamic Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.59	Distribution-Aware Robust Bilevel Optimization: Quantile-Guided Huber Updates in Two-Timescale Stochastic Approximation	arxiv 2026-06-21	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.59	From Pixels to Concepts: Growing Rich 3D Semantic Scene Graph Forests utilizing Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	BLENDS: Bayesian Learning-Enhanced Deep Smoothing for GNSS-Denied Environments	arxiv 2026-06-21	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.59	FDA ANDA203863: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA NDA201194: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — VISTAPHARM LLC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA ANDA204575: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND IBUPROFEN (HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE) — AUROLIFE PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	By what date will the 21st Century Road to Housing Act become law?	manifold 2026-06-24	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.59	OrbitForge: Text-to-3D Scene Generation via Reconstruction-Anchored Video Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-23	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.59	Privacy-Preserving RAG via Multi-Agent Semantic Rewriting: Achieving Confidentiality Without Compromising Contextual Fidelity	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	SURGELLM: Rethinking Multi-Task Evaluation through Task-Aware Feature Gating with Class-Balanced Normalization	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Low-rank Updates in Slowly Time-varying Graphs for Spatial-Temporal Signal Interpolation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	DREG: A Layer-Wise Jacobian Regularization as a General-Purpose Penalty	arxiv 2026-06-22	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.59	Hessian-augmented Supervised Learning for Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman PDEs	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	Beyond Logprobs: A Multi-Signal Confidence Engine for LLM-Based Document Field Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.59	VieSpeaker: A Large-Scale Vietnamese Speaker Recognition Dataset Beyond Visual Dependency	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Wavelet Matrix Product States for Quantum Fields	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	FDA ANDA077712: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-06-25	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.59	will this market have 50 or more unique traders by july 5(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	A cross-process welding penetration status prediction algorithm based on unsupervised domain adaptation in laser and TIG welding	arxiv 2026-06-24	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Point Cloud Diffusion with Global and Local Reconstruction for Instance-Level 3D Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	ATMA: Length-Invariant Language Modeling via Polar Attention and Gated-Delta Compression Memory	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Are Tabular Foundation Models Robust to Realistic Query Distribution Shifts in Microbiome Data?	arxiv 2026-06-23	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	When Does Synthetic Data Augmentation Improve Score-Based Imbalanced Classification?	arxiv 2026-06-24	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Deep Neural Networks with Ordinal Loss for Medical Applications	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	TRACER: Training-Free Closed-Loop Structured Inference for Traffic Accident Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.59	TRACER: Training-Free Closed-Loop Structured Inference for Traffic Accident Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	The Tatoxa System for Text Detoxification in Low-Resource Languages: The Case of Tatar	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Three Buddhist Vocabularies: Computational Stylometry of the English Pali Canon across Sutta, Vinaya, and Abhidhamma	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Hybrid-IR: Dual-Path Hybrid Retrieval with Iterative Reasoning for Complex Medical Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	FDA ANDA210644: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ABHAI LLC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA ANDA213906: LEVORPHANOL TARTRATE (LEVORPHANOL TARTRATE) — SUN PHARM INDS INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Will Iraq reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spain leading at halftime?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will GTA VI be delayed again?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-26	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.59	What will my 2027 AIME I score be?	manifold 2026-06-26	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.59	ReaORE: Reasoning-Guided Progressive Open Relation Extraction Empowered by Large Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	XMSE-Aware Adaptive Empirical Bayes Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	Tractography-Driven Synthetic Data Generation for Fiber Bundle Segmentation in Tracer Histology	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	Escaping Iterative Parameter-Space Noise: Differentially Private Learning with a Hypernetwork	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.59	Batch-Invariant Spectral Intelligence for Robust and Explainable Insect Authentication	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.59	Learning Probabilistic Filters with Strictly Proper Scoring Rules	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	A probabilistic framework for online test-time adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-24	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	UAV-MapFusion: RTK-Aligned Uncertainty-Aware Coarse-to-Fine Multi-Session UAV Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-25	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.59	Dirichlet, Neumann, Mixed and self-dual holography: (self-dual) Yang--Mills theory II	arxiv 2026-06-24	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Will Iran reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.59	DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	What will be the sum of my AP scores releasing this July?	manifold 2026-06-27	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	How many traders will this market get? (closes in 24h)	manifold 2026-06-27	231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	Will X happen at the Pride Match (Iran v Egypt, Seattle June 26)	manifold 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will all 5 Anti-Social Press cryptogram books be published on Amazon by the end October 31, 2026?(market prob: 93%)	manifold 2026-06-25	237_021 Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. Alex Finn	Crypto	40%
0.59	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Spread: Argentina (-2.5)(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Spread: England (-3.5)(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in August 2026?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-06-29	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Soylent is acquired by an Anthropic employee by EOY 2027(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-29	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.59	Canadiens vs. Lightning(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.59	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2025-09-14	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-03-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30?(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-04-29	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.59	Will ManiFold Hire a GTM manager until 30 May 2026(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-04-29	243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	41%
0.59	Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Android's age verification system before 2027?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-29	240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.59	Will I solve an Erdos problem?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-04-27	238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	61%
0.59	Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-27	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.59	What will I get at IMO 2026?	manifold 2026-04-27	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will the Great Pyramid of Giza Big Void be explored in 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-27	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.59	Will I promote to Platinum this season?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-26	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.59	Which team will win Marble League 2026?	manifold 2026-04-26	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Donald Trump bomb Iran again in 2026?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-04-25	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.59	If there is an EAGxNordics 2027, where will it take place in?	manifold 2026-04-25	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.59	How much will Manifund's Falcon Fund raise by May 15?	manifold 2026-04-25	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.59	UEFA Champions League 2025/26 final [Genuine Prediction](market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-24	SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. Kevin Weil	AI/Agents	74%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-23	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.59	The next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-04-23	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Isurus (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #4 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	article fb24d74d 3ace 55ce b303 fac8efa3735e.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	article	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	new details released about settlement in spacex lawsuit against state coastal commission	gdelt 2026-04-30	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	firstsun capital bancorp q1 2026 123000543.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure	—	12%
0.59	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-19	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	XQC plays RLcraft again before June?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-01	237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn	AI	41%
0.59	XQC plays RLcraft again before June?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-01	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-01	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	Will US average gas price reach $4.500 in May 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-01	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.59	Will MNX hire a backend developer before Manifest?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-04-30	231_053 Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what seasoned engineers do. Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	50%