Validations Queue
49,835 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 8 of 12, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
Pending (total)
49,835
Reviewed
13
Filtered
1,175
page 8 / 12
Showing on page
100
Filters
URL params control source + min-similarity threshold
Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before July 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Vietnam's real GDP grow by at least 12% in 2026(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.67 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.3%?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 235_003 First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 40% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-02 | CMQ_003 By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence. Sam Altman | AI | 23% | ||
| 0.67 | Will I get an AI lab offer?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.67 | Bitcoin $83k in May?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.67 | Will Apple stop selling the $599 MacBook Neo SKU before the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.67 | Will TSLA close below $400 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | 30T market cap company before 2030?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.67 | Longevity escape velocity before 2030?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | FUT_007 Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort transitions from high-velocity capital creators/consumers to capital-draining healthcare-dependent retirees; Gen X + Millennials lack numerical mass to rep... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 41% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.67 | Will the US unemployment rate be >=6.4% in April 2028?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 40% | ||
| 0.67 | Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-02 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 242_021 Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 48% | ||
| 0.67 | Will I make USAMO in 2027(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.67 | If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade Peter Diamandis | AI | 36% | |
| 0.67 | If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_ASI_FAST_2031 ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI | asi_recursive_self_improvement | 10% | |
| 0.67 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.67 | Will research-level math become a sport akin to chess before 2035?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | |
| 0.67 | Will research-level math become a sport akin to chess before 2035?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil | AI | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will Sam Altman file a case against anthropic in next 3 months?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Polymarket IPO on December 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.67 | Will DeepSeek release a model named DeepSeek-R2 by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before July 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.67 | US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.67 | Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack | Space | 43% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Apple announce the M5 Mac mini during the WWDC Keynote?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.67 | Will Apple announce the M5 Mac mini during the WWDC Keynote?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.67 | Will there be a data center on the moon Europa by EOY 2066?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 232_049 Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 19% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang | Capital Markets | 86% | ||
| 0.67 | Bitcoin $69K in May?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.67 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-02 | ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.67 | Will I lose my current job by the end of 2026?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.67 | Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | 232_035 Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-16 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.67 | S&P 500 hits 8000 in 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.67 | 30T market cap company before 2030?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.67 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.3%?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.67 | Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.67 | Tesla reaches $400 before $300?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 31% | |
| 0.67 | Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | |
| 0.67 | will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.67 | will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.67 | Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.67 | US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | |
| 0.67 | 30T market cap company before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 56% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 46% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-05 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.67 | Will SPY close down on the day of the SpaceX IPO?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 237_011 AI agents will have voices in the near future. Alex Finn | AI | 43% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-03 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.67 | Will I make USAMO in 2027(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 37% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-08 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% |