Validations Queue
75,032 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 60 of 83, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
Pending (total)
75,032
Reviewed
13
Filtered
8,221
page 60 / 83
Showing on page
100
Filters
URL params control source + min-similarity threshold
Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. Ray Kurzweil | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 246_027 AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future). Sam Altman | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | Will SPY close above $739.17 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | Will there be a physical protest at YouTube headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will I successfully refer someone for Ṁ1,000?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 245_025 Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 80% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 247_022 Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-24 | CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in June 2026?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 239_006 AI will solve everything including longevity Elon Musk | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic | AI | 80% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | will we (husband + me) move back to our hometown within 3 years?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 236_018 UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 years Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Stuttgart 21 open in 2031?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-11 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Will someone manigram me 500 mana?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque | Media/Ads | 35% | |
| 0.58 | Will I win any prize in the next prize drawing (Drawing #30)(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will I win any prize in the next prize drawing (Drawing #30)(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock be on the Democratic ticket in 2028?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Win by betting "yes"(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Will 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | Sub-1:59 marathon before LA Olympics?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-26 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 231_014 Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Trump visits China by EOF June?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Will there be another Crank movie released by the end of 2030?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Will there be another Crank movie released by the end of 2030?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | Will MIT accept anyone from their 2026 waitlist?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Rudy Giuliani die in 2026?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-05 | AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk | AI | 13% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will my friend go on a date by the end of May?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I use Hermes Agent for more than a week?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will the top HN story have 500+ points when this resolves?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 24% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 245_021 Engineered all-male screworms released via gene drive will cause species die-off over time Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 22nd, 2026?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.58 | Top team score for ARML 2026 greater than 235?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-30 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-30 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Will a wild card team win the MLB World Series in 2026?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt | Education | 51% | |
| 0.58 | 1 in 6 Adults are NEET in 2031 (UK)(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I receive a score on the TSTST high enough to qualify for the TST(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Do you like 46% odds?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Skeletor is gonna reference the meme “until we meet again”?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Skeletor is gonna reference the meme “until we meet again”?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% |