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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 21, 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in May 2026?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | If the Googlebook is launched, will it still be available a year later?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 153(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_015 Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip 🎉(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_044 Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Chainlink go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.60 | Claude 5 released by End of September 2026?(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brent crude futures close above $110 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-18 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.60 | Will a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Will TSLA close below $400 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-27 | S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026 | macro_recession | 20% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-26 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Sydney Metro exceed 70,000,000 trips taken in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-03 | CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis) | Robotics | 41% | ||
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.60 | Will I comment on this market? [Creator won't bet](market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-04 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.60 | Will I get into any MATS tracks in the Autumn 2026 cohort?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.60 | Will May 2026 headline CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will AMM 2026 release scores next week?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.60 | Do you like 42% odds?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | Will there be more than 150 goals scored in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-10 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 235_021 Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years. Zipline | Auto/Transport | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Free Lottery (cosmic microwave background)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.60 | Will June 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-27 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | Will the Great Pyramid of Giza Big Void be explored in 2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-26 | CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis | Space | 56% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Monero trade below $300 during May?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester?(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 234_020 AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-03 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.60 | Limitless Markets US approved as a DCM by the CFTC in 2026?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.60 | Will my friend Aryan make ARML tb(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026 | macro_recession | 20% | ||
| 0.60 | Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-07 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Apple stop selling the $599 MacBook Neo SKU before the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 42% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-12 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Duolingo launch a public Toki Pona course by the end of 2027?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.60 | Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | Andy Burnham PM before 1 November 2026?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 22nd, 2026?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | Will I comment on this market?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 230_037 Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. Dave Blundin | Consumer | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Hummingbird connectome by EOY2032(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 17% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-01 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.60 | Starmer out before August?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Sydney Metro exceed 70,000,000 trips taken in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030 | robotaxi_deployment | 30% | |
| 0.60 | Will I comment on this market? [Creator won't bet](market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 230_037 Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. Dave Blundin | Consumer | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will I increase the number of pull ups I can do by 50%+ by 25th June?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.60 | Star在月底会达到0.01美金吗？(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.60 | Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% |