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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.66	BioRefusalAudit: Auditing Biosecurity Refusal Depth Using General and Domain-Fine-Tuned Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.66	Overcoming Forgetting in LLM Fine-Tuning with Evolution Strategies	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.66	Enhancing Multi-Agent Communication through Attention Steering with Context Relevance	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	A Predictive Law for On-Policy Self-Distillation From World Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	HoliTok:A Coutinuous Holistic Tokenization with Robust Dual Capabilities of Speech Generation and Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Selection Hyper-heuristics Can Automatically Adjust the Learning Period to Optimally Solve Pseudo-Boolean Problems	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.66	NaRA: Noise-Aware LoRA for Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning of Diffusion LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	NICE: A Theory-Grounded Diagnostic Benchmark for Social Intelligence of LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	OccamToken: Efficient VLM Inference with Training-Free and Budget-Adaptive Token Pruning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Mind-Omni: A Unified Multi-Task Framework for Brain-Vision-Language Modeling via Discrete Diffusion	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	SoundnessBench: Can Your AI Scientist Really Tell Good Research Ideas from Bad Ones?	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.66	Resolution Diagnostics for Paired LLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.66	Fingerprinting Inference Systems of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.66	AMDP: Asynchronous Multi-Directional Pipeline Parallelism for Large-Scale Models Training	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.66	Neural-Behavioral Representation of Natural Whole-body Movement in Monkeys	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	A Theoretical and Experimental Study of a Novel Adaptive Learning Algorithm	arxiv 2026-05-28	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.66	COMPOSE: Composing Future Theorems from Citations and Formal Structure	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.66	COMPOSE: Composing Future Theorems from Citations and Formal Structure	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.66	HEART-Bench: Do LLM Agents Exhibit Human-like Psychology?	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Minimal Prompt Perturbations Lead to Code Vulnerabilities: Prompt Fragility and Hidden-State Signals in Coding LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.66	On Asymmetric Optimization of Reasoning and Perception in Vision-Language Model Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Towards Human-Like Interactive Speech Recognition With Agentic Correction and Semantic Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	VLAConf: Calibrated Task-Success Confidence for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Distributed Non-Uniform Scaling Control of Multi-Agent Formation with Dynamic Agent Joining	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.66	CA-AC-MPC: CUDA-Accelerated Actor-Critic Model Predictive Control	arxiv 2026-05-27	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.66	Will Bitcoin be higher than right now, exactly 7 days from now?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	2nd largest company end of September 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.66	FDA NDA203049: ARGATROBAN (ARGATROBAN) — HIKMA PHARM CO LTD	fda 2026-05-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Bitcoin $60k in June?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Bitcoin $65K in June?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Bridging the Sim-to-Real Gap in Semiconductor Visual Program Synthesis via Input Binarization	arxiv 2026-06-01	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.66	An Abstract Worlds Semantic Framework for Belief Change Operators	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	Rethinking Evaluation Paradigms in IBP-based Certified Training	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.66	Explainable Data-driven Deep Reinforcement Learning Methods for Optimal Energy Management in Buildings	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	PlanarBench: Evaluating LLM Spatial Reasoning via Planar Graph Drawing	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	AutoMedBench: Towards Medical AutoResearch with Agentic AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning of Large Pretrained Models for Instance Segmentation Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.66	Collaborative Space Object Detection with Multi-Satellite Viewpoints in LEO Constellations	arxiv 2026-06-01	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.66	On the Limits of Token Reduction for Efficient Unified Vision Language Training	arxiv 2026-05-31	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.66	TimeBlocks: Foundational and Continual Time-Series Blockbase -- Extended Version	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Unveiling the Entropy Dynamics of Chain-of-Thought Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	KDH-CAD: Knowledge-data hybrid CAD learning under data scarcity	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	TVIR: Building Deep Research Agents Towards Text--Visual Interleaved Report Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.66	Beyond Isolated Behaviors: Hierarchical User Modeling for LLM Personalization	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.66	CultureForest: Understanding and Evaluating Cultural Norm Grounded Reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	Before and After Temperature: A Distributional View of Creative LLM Generation	arxiv 2026-05-31	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.66	Don't Read Everything: A Curvature-Conditioned Query for Linear Attention	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	BenchEvolver: Frontier Task Synthesis via Solution-Centric Evolution	arxiv 2026-05-31	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.66	Beyond Sinusoids: A Morlet Wavelet Framework for Transformer Positional Encoding	arxiv 2026-05-31	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.66	Unlocking the Black Box of Latent Reasoning: An Interpretability-Guided Approach to Intervention	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Efficient RAG with Intent-Aware Retrieval and Semantics-Preserving Chunking	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Implicit Geographic Inference in LLM Medical Triage: Language-Driven Disparities in Emergency Recommendations	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Child-directed speech facilitates production, not comprehension, in BabyLMs	arxiv 2026-05-31	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.66	Decoding in Order-Agnostic Language Models: Chain-Rule Deviation and Uniform Spreading	arxiv 2026-05-31	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.66	Lost in Delusion: Examining LLM Safety Under User Delusions and Distress	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	230_022 Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. Elon Musk	Robotics	31%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	TempoVLA: Learning Speed-Controllable Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	RedKnot: Efficient Long-Context LLM Serving with Head-Aware KV Reuse and SegPagedAttention	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Causal Scaffolding for Physical Reasoning: A Benchmark for Causally-Informed Physical World Understanding in VLMs	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Learning Geometric Representations from Videos for Spatial Intelligent Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	From Risk Classification to Action Plan Remediation: A Guardrail Feedback Driven Framework for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.66	When AI Says It Feels	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	Safety Paradox: How Enhanced Safety Awareness Leaves LLMs Vulnerable to Posterior Attack	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.66	SoCRATES: Towards Reliable Automated Evaluation of Proactive LLM Mediation across Domains and Socio-cognitive Variations	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.66	Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Action Conditional Guarantee	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.66	Tangram: Unlocking Non-Uniform KV Cache for Efficient Multi-turn LLM Serving	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	CASS-RTL: Correctness-Aware Subspace Steering for RTL Generation with LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	CASS-RTL: Correctness-Aware Subspace Steering for RTL Generation with LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	CLaaS: Continual learning as a service for sample efficient online learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.66	LEVANTE-bench: Multi-Scale Comparison of VLMs to Children Using Cognitive Tasks (or, "Is Your VLM Smarter Than a 5th Grader?")	arxiv 2026-06-03	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.66	Towards Unified and Data-Efficient Prognostics and Health Management with Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.66	Agentic Monte Carlo: Simulating Reinforcement Learning for Black-Box Agents	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Decomposing Factual Sycophancy in Language Models: How Size and Instruction Tuning Shape Robustness	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.66	Asuka-Bench: Benchmarking Code Agents on Underspecified User Intent and Multi-Round Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Can LLMs Be Constrained to the Past? Improving Knowledge Cutoff through Recall-Based Prompting	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	PlanBench-V: A Spatial Planning Map Benchmark for Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	DAR: Deontic Reasoning with Agentic Harnesses	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	M$^3$Eval: Multi-Modal Memory Evaluation through Cognitively-Grounded Video Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	CYGNET: Cypher Gate for Neural Execution Triage and Cost Containment	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.66	Towards Realistic 3D Sonar Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.66	FlowPRO: Reward-Free Reinforced Fine-Tuning of Flow-Matching VLAs via Proximalized Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	X4Val: Learning Neural Surrogates for Variance-Reduced Policy Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	BPDA-GMM: Bayesian Probabilistic Data Association via Gaussian Mixture Models for Semantic SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Will someone break the Usain Bolt World Record in the 100 Meter Dash at Enhanced Games before 2032?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-06-05	248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8?(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	CULTURESCORE: Evaluating Cultural Faithfulness in Video Generation Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.66	On the Geometry of On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-05	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.66	Bootstrap Theory of Representational Emergence: Explanatory Insufficiency as a Driver of Representation Learning and World Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.66	Towards Tight Bounds for Streaming Attention	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.66	Towards Tight Bounds for Streaming Attention	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.66	M$^3$Exam: Benchmarking Multimodal Memory for Realistic User-Agent Interactions	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	LLM-Guided Evolution for Medical Decision Pipelines	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	MADE: Beyond Scoring via a Multilingual Agentic Diagnosing Engine for Fine-Grained Evaluation Insights	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	On orbital stabilization of a circular motion primitive for a dynamic extension of the Dubins car model	arxiv 2026-06-05	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.66	Rapid co-design of Buoyancy-assisted robots for Challenging Locomotion using Gaussian Evolutionary Specialists	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Spline Policy: A Structured Representation for Robot Policies	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will I (Mitpro) reach Expert in Codeforces again before July 1st(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-08	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.66	Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.66	Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) (CIK 0001375365)	edgar_8k 2026-06-09	SEM_018 SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses. SMIC (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	47%
0.66	An Agency-Transferring Model-Free Policy Enhancement Technique	arxiv 2026-06-08	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.66	Difference-Aware Retrieval Policies for Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	SecureClaw: Clawing Back Control of LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.66	WeaveBench: A Long-Horizon, Real-World Benchmark for Computer-Use Agents with Hybrid Interfaces	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Beyond Humans: Multispecies Animal Face Recognition Using Transfer Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.66	Self-Paced Curriculum Reinforcement Learning for Autonomous Superbike Racing in Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.66	REFLECT: Intervention-Supported Error Attribution for Silent Failures in LLM Agent Traces	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Report on CHIIR 2026 Workshop on Generative AI and Academic Search (GAI&AS)	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%
0.66	Knowledge Graphs and Reasoning LLMs for Finding Simple Yet Effective Transcriptomic Perturbation Predictors	arxiv 2026-06-07	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.66	RAILS: Verification-Native Clearing For Agentic Commerce	arxiv 2026-06-07	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.66	When Do Local Score Models Extrapolate Across Size? A Diagnostic Theory and Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.66	Code Is More Than Text: Uncertainty Estimation for Code Generation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Intention Driven Identification of In-Possession Match Phases in Association Football through Temporal Graph Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.66	Aperon Technical Report: Hierarchical No-Pointer Tangent-Local Search for High-Dimensional Approximate Nearest Neighbors	arxiv 2026-06-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.66	Agentic Search for Counterfactual Recourse under Fixed LLM Budgets	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Quantum Global Variational Learning for Quantum Error Correction	arxiv 2026-06-07	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.66	Multi-Hop Knowledge Composition is Bound by Pretraining Exposure	arxiv 2026-06-08	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.66	More Yap Less Meaning: Uncovering Self-Improvement Behavior in SLMs	arxiv 2026-06-07	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.66	Impacts of Histories and Models on LLM Grading: A Study in Advanced Software Engineering Courses	arxiv 2026-06-07	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.66	Safe Polytope-in-Polytope Motion Planning and Control with Control Barrier Functions	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	ReGIL: Retrieval-Guided Imitation Learning from a Single Demonstration	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	FDA ANDA218096: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-06-03	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	The Role of Feedback Alignment in Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	PhantomBench: Benchmarking the Non-existential Threat of Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	RoboNaldo: Accurate, Stable and Powerful Humanoid Soccer Shooting via Motion-Guided Curriculum Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	RoboNaldo: Accurate, Stable and Powerful Humanoid Soccer Shooting via Motion-Guided Curriculum Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	Unifying Local Communications and Local Updates for LLM Pretraining	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	From Perception to Action: Can UI Interventions Foster Sustainable LLM Chatbot	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_019 Physical intervention (literally unplugging data centers) may be required once AI agents begin communicating in proprietary, non-human-decipherable languages. Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	16%
0.66	AutoPDE: Reliable Agentic PDE Solving via Explicitly Represented Solver Strategies	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Effective Reinforcement Learning for Agentic Search by Recycling Zero-Variance Queries During Training	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Infini Memory: Maintainable Topic Documents for Long-Term LLM Agent Memory	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Beyond Static Evaluation: Co-Evolutionary Mechanisms for LLM-Driven Strategy Evolution in Adversarial Games	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.66	A Source Domain is All You Need: Source-Only Cross-OS Transfer Learning for APT Anomaly Detection via Semantic Alignment and Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.66	Training LLMs to Enforce Multi-Level Instruction Hierarchies via Gravity-Weighted Direct Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.66	Language-Driven Cost Optimization for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	Language-Driven Cost Optimization for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-09	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.66	Pushing the Performance Limits in Autonomous Racing: Continuous Stability-Aware Adaptive Velocity Planning in Formula Student Driverless	arxiv 2026-06-09	244_004 Race car driving will persist as a sport Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	50%
0.66	AgenticNav: Zero-Shot Vision-and-Language Navigation as a Tool-Calling Harness	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	GuideWalk: Learning Unified Autonomous Navigation and Locomotion for Humanoid Robots across Versatile Terrains	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	Robotic Nonprehensile Object Transportation with a Hanging Tray	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_040 When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millimeter' of every other task because it's all just data. Dave Blundin	Robotics	43%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	By when will Amazon Prime Air (drone delivery) be available in every state?	manifold 2026-06-11	240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	24%
0.66	HERO: Hindsight-Enhanced Reflection from Environment Observations for Agentic Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	When Roleplaying, Do Models Believe What They Say?	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Small Experiments, Cheaper Decisions: A Case Study in Staged Promotion for Micro-Pretraining	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.66	RoboNaldo: Accurate, Stable and Powerful Humanoid Soccer Shooting via Motion-Guided Curriculum Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	RoboNaldo: Accurate, Stable and Powerful Humanoid Soccer Shooting via Motion-Guided Curriculum Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	IAPO: Input Attribution-Aware Policy Optimization for Tool Use in Small Multimodal Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Mahalanobis-Guided Latent OOD Detection for Hybrid ES-DRL Control in Time-Varying Systems	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	The Periodic Table of LLM Reasoning: A Structured Survey of Reasoning Paradigms, Methods, and Failure Modes	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	MPPI-based Informative Trajectory Planning for Search and Capture of Drifting Targets with ASVs	arxiv 2026-06-10	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) (CIK 0001375365)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	SEM_018 SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses. SMIC (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	47%
0.66	MaxProof: Scaling Mathematical Proof with Generative-Verifier RL and Population-Level Test-Time Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.66	Can I Buy Your KV Cache?	arxiv 2026-06-11	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	44%
0.66	ERTS: Adversarial Robustness Testing of Ethical AI via Semantic Perturbation in a Bounded Consequence Space	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_025 Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous systems will generate unintended consequences forcing complete reevaluation of human purpose, economics, justice — as AI solves material scarcity + physical labor constraints, h... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	The Theory of Mind Utility: Formal Specification of a Mentalizing Mechanism	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.66	Evoflux: Inference-Time Evolution of Executable Tool Workflows for Compact Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_002 Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enterprise reality involves significant operational friction — the 'integration schlep' — characterized by legacy software incompatibilities, rigid corporate bureaucracies, and per... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Macro/Economy	85%
0.66	Keep Policy Gradient in Charge: Sibling-Guided Credit Distillation for Long-Horizon Tool-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.66	Emerging Flexible Designs for Geospatial Multimodal Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.66	Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Chemotherapy Pharmacokinetics: Benchmarking the Clinical Estimator and Exposing Parameter Identifiability	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.66	EvoArena: Tracking Memory Evolution for Robust LLM Agents in Dynamic Environments	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.66	SICI: A Semantic-Pragmatic Complexity Index Reveals Regime Shifts in LLM Stance Detection	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Improving Robotic Generalist Policies via Flow Reversal Steering	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	Effects of Social Interactions in Self-Organising Railway Traffic Management	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.66	G-MAPP: GPU-accelerated Multi-Agent Planning and Perception for Reactive Motion Generation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will a non-Anthropic company make a Mythos-class model generally available worldwide in 2026?(market prob: 86%)	manifold 2026-06-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.66	Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-06-13	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.65	Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.65	Title:Will a Kessler Syndrome cascade begin in Low Earth Orbit before 2046?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-04-24	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.65	Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-04-24	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.65		gdelt 2026-04-30	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.65	10729150	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 1?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 2?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 2?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 1?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	37%
0.65	US Average Gas Price on May 3 2026?	manifold 2026-05-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-13	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-13	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will I make USAMO in 2027(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-04	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.65	openai/openai-python v2.15.0	github_release 2026-01-09	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.87.0	github_release 2026-03-31	246_047 Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. Peter Diamandis	AI	76%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.80.0	github_release 2026-02-17	246_047 Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. Peter Diamandis	AI	76%
0.65	huggingface/transformers v5.2.0	github_release 2026-02-16	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Steer Like the LLM: Activation Steering that Mimics Prompting	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	QKVShare: Quantized KV-Cache Handoff for Multi-Agent On-Device LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	RoboAlign-R1: Distilled Multimodal Reward Alignment for Robot Video World Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Self-Improvement for Fast, High-Quality Plan Generation	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.65	A Skill-Based AI Agentic Pipeline for Library of Congress Subject Indexing	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	FinSTaR: Towards Financial Reasoning with Time Series Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	RLDX-1 Technical Report	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Enhancing Agent Safety Judgment: Controlled Benchmark Rewriting and Analogical Reasoning for Deceptive Out-of-Distribution Scenarios	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.65	Programmatic Context Augmentation for LLM-based Symbolic Regression	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	AI and Open-data Driven Scalable Solar Power Profiling	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.65	Deciphering Shortcut Learning from an Evolutionary Game Theory Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Information Plane Analysis of Binary Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.65	A Comparison of Traditional Machine Learning Algorithms and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models for Email Sentiment Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Synthetic Users, Real Differences: an Evaluation Framework for User Simulation in Multi-Turn Conversations	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	Perturbation Dose Responses in Recursive LLM Loops: Raw Switching, Stochastic Floors, and Persistent Escape under Append, Replace, and Dialog Updates	arxiv 2026-05-04	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.65	Sharpness-Aware Pretraining Mitigates Catastrophic Forgetting	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	FDA BLA761349: COSENTYX (SECUKINUMAB) — NOVARTIS PHARMS CORP	fda 2026-04-17	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.65	BAMI: Training-Free Bias Mitigation in GUI Grounding	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Verifier-Backed Hard Problem Generation for Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Can RL Teach Long-Horizon Reasoning to LLMs? Expressiveness Is Key	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	SkillOS: Learning Skill Curation for Self-Evolving Agents	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Data Language Models: A New Foundation Model Class for Tabular Data	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Back to the Beginning of Heuristic Design: Bridging Code and Knowledge with LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.65	From Coordinate Matching to Structural Alignment: Rethinking Prototype Alignment in Heterogeneous Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Criticality and Saturation in Orthogonal Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Efficient Serving for Dynamic Agent Workflows with Prediction-based KV-Cache Management	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_046 Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes of DRAM demand by 2027 — up to 77% of global supply. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	63%
0.65	No Triangulation Without Representation: Generalization in Topological Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	FedFrozen: Two-Stage Federated Optimization via Attention Kernel Freezing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Neural-Actuarial Longevity Forecasting: Anchoring LSTMs for Explainable Risk Management	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_007 Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort transitions from high-velocity capital creators/consumers to capital-draining healthcare-dependent retirees; Gen X + Millennials lack numerical mass to rep... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	41%
0.65	Layer Collapse in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	MANTRA: Synthesizing SMT-Validated Compliance Benchmarks for Tool-Using LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Understanding diffusion models requires rethinking (again) generalization	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.65	Requests of a Feather Must Flock Together: Batch Size vs. Prefix Homogeneity in LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Architecture Shape Governs QNN Trainability: Jacobian Null Space Growth and Parameter Efficiency	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	STALE: Can LLM Agents Know When Their Memories Are No Longer Valid?	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.65	Navigating by Old Maps: The Pitfalls of Static Mechanistic Localization in LLM Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Navigating by Old Maps: The Pitfalls of Static Mechanistic Localization in LLM Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	More Aligned, Less Diverse? Analyzing the Grammar and Lexicon of Two Generations of LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Maximal Controlled Invariant-MPC: Enhancing Feasibility and Reducing Conservatism through Terminal CBF Constraint in Safety-Critical Control	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	Creative Robot Tool Use by Counterfactual Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-06	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.65	When Life Gives You BC, Make Q-functions: Extracting Q-values from Behavior Cloning for On-Robot Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	From Language to Logic: A Theoretical Architecture for VLM-Grounded Safe Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	FDA BLA761183: TZIELD (TEPLIZUMAB-MZWV) — PROVENTION BIO INC	fda 2026-04-20	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	230_022 Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. Elon Musk	Robotics	31%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.65	What will be the best score (almost resolved) on ProgramBench at the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	facebookresearch/HolisticTraceAnalysis v0.6.0	github_release 2026-04-21	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $89,000 on May 13?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	When will the Jai programming language be public?	manifold 2026-05-10	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.65	Routers Learn the Geometry of Their Experts: Geometric Coupling in Sparse Mixture-of-Experts	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Neural-Schwarz Tiling for Geometry-Universal PDE Solving at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Intrinsic Vicarious Conditioning for Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Efficient and Adaptive Human Activity Recognition via LLM Backbones	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Multi-Narrow Transformation as a Single-Model Ensemble: Boundary Conditions, Mechanisms, and Failure Modes	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.65	How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?	manifold 2026-05-13	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.65	Learning Local Constraints for Reinforcement-Learned Content Generators	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Uncertainty-Aware Prediction of Lung Tumor Growth from Sparse Longitudinal CT Data via Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Shortcut Mitigation via Spurious-Positive Samples	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	AcquisitionSynthesis: Targeted Data Generation using Acquisition Functions	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	On Hallucinations in Inverse Problems: Fundamental Limits and Provable Assessment Methods	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	What will the price of Bitcoin hit by May 30th UTC?	manifold 2026-05-15	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.65	Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-05-14	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.65	An Interpretable Latency Model for Speculative Decoding in LLM Serving	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Compositional Sparsity as an Inductive Bias for Neural Architecture Design	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Multi-Dimensional Model Integrity and Responsibility Assessment Index and Scoring Framework	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	Multi-Dimensional Model Integrity and Responsibility Assessment Index and Scoring Framework	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	FrontierSmith: Synthesizing Open-Ended Coding Problems at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Analog RF Computing: A New Paradigm for Energy-Efficient Edge AI Over MU-MIMO Systems	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Minimal-Intervention KV Retention: A Design-Space Study and a Diversity-Penalty Survivor	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	LLMs Know When They Know, but Do Not Act on It: A Metacognitive Harness for Test-time Scaling	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	GPT 5.6 release date?	manifold 2026-05-16	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.65	How many companies with a $5T+ market cap at end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-16	235_044 AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-18	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.65	Predictable Confabulations: Factual Recall by LLMs Scales with Model Size and Topic Frequency	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	AMARIS: A Memory-Augmented Rubric Improvement System for Rubric-Based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	When Outcome Looks Right But Discipline Fails: Trace-Based Evaluation Under Hidden Competitor State	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	Beyond Square Roots: Explicit Memory-Efficient Factorization for Multi-Epoch Private Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Proximal basin hopping: global optimization with guarantees	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Privacy Preserving Reinforcement Learning with One-Sided Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-18	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.65	Concise and Logically Consistent Conformal Sets for Neuro-Symbolic Concept-Based Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Symmetry-Compatible Principle for Optimizer Design: Embeddings, LM Heads, SwiGLU MLPs, and MoE Routers	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	DCFold: Efficient Protein Structure Generation with Single Forward Pass	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.65	CoX-MoE: Coalesced Expert Execution for High-Throughput MoE Inference with AMX-Enabled CPU-GPU Co-Execution	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.65	HydroAgent: Closing the Gap Between Frontier LLMs and Human Experts in Hydrologic Model Calibration via Simulator-Grounded RL	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-24	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.65	Trump goes to space in 2028? [Polymarket](market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-28	237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis	AI	59%
0.65	Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.65	Will "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-26	AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk	AI	17%
0.65	On which dates will you get a 20 mana trader bonus for a 1000 mana market?	manifold 2026-05-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.65	What will be the first one-person company to reach a $1 billion valuation?	manifold 2026-05-25	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.65	Do Proactive Agents Really Need an LLM to Decide When to Wake and What to Anchor?	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	Label Over Logic? How Source Cues Bias Human Fallacy Judgments More Than LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Towards Verifiable Multimodal Deep Research: A Multi-Agent Harness for Interleaved Report Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	From Prompts to Context: An Ontology-Driven Framework for Human-Generative AI Collaboration	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Entity-Collision: A Stratified Protocol for Attributing Retrieval Lift in Agent Memory	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Source-Grounded Semantic Reinforcement Learning for Low-Resource Target-Language Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	TriSearch: Learning to Optimize Triangulations via Bistellar Flips	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Mean-Field Diffuser: Scaling Offline MARL to Thousands of Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	When Do Graph Foundation Models Transfer? A Data-Centric Theory	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Kernel Renormalization in Bayesian Deep Neural Networks: the Equivalent Wishart Ansatz in the Proportional Regime	arxiv 2026-05-28	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.65	AMDP: Asynchronous Multi-Directional Pipeline Parallelism for Large-Scale Models Training	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	PEARL: Training Socratic Tutors with Pedagogically Aligned Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Recovering Policy-Induced Errors: Benchmarking and Trajectory Synthesis for Robust GUI Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	When RL Suppresses Its Own Vocabulary: Recovering Reasoning Diversity in Puzzle-to-Math Transfer	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	When RL Suppresses Its Own Vocabulary: Recovering Reasoning Diversity in Puzzle-to-Math Transfer	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Replicable Simulation-Based Robot Validation through Provenance	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.65	EXACT-MPPI: Exact Signed-Distance Navigation for Arbitrary-Footprint Robots from Point Clouds via Path Integral Control	arxiv 2026-05-28	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.65	Decentralized LLM-Driven Coordination of Acoustic Robots for Contactless Object Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	How many unique viewers will this market end with?	manifold 2026-05-30	245_004 EY estimates the extinct-species educational/consumer market at $1.7 trillion annually EY (Ernst & Young)	Consumer	43%
0.65	Will Bitcoin be higher than right now, exactly 7 days from now?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-29	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Largest company end of August 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.65	Largest company end of July 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.65	Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-06-01	240_058 OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.65	FDA ANDA220437: TIVOZANIB (TIVOZANIB) — SANDOZ INC	fda 2026-05-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.65	Will Vietnam's real GDP grow by at least 12% in 2026(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-02	AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	13%
0.65	Bitcoin $78K in June?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Not All Errors Are Equal: A Systematic Study of Error Propagation in Large Language Model Inference	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	AgentPLM: Agentic Protein Language Models with Reasoning-Augmented Decoding for Protein Sequence Design	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	From Capability Models to Automated Planning: An AAS-Native Approach for Automatic PDDL Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	Learning When Not to Act: Mitigating Tool Abuse in Agentic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Learning When Not to Act: Mitigating Tool Abuse in Agentic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	A Primer in Post-Training Reasoning Data: What We Know About How It Works	arxiv 2026-06-01	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.65	Explainable Data-driven Deep Reinforcement Learning Methods for Optimal Energy Management in Buildings	arxiv 2026-06-01	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.65	OpenWebRL: Demystifying Online Multi-turn Reinforcement Learning for Visual Web Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Why Do Time Series Models Need Long Context Windows?	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	VET: A Framework for Analyzing AI Discourse	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.65	Dynamic Trust-Aware Sparse Communication Topology for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Consensus	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	STaR-KV: Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Re-weighting for KV Cache Compression in GUI Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	A Local Perturbation Theory for Cross-Domain Interference and Recovery in Multi-Domain RL	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	Why Are DMD Students Lazy? Understanding the Copying Behavior in Few-Step Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-01	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	TimeBlocks: Foundational and Continual Time-Series Blockbase -- Extended Version	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Quantifying the Energy Floor: Direct Measurement and Replay Buffer Bias in SAC-Based HVAC Control on sbsim	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.65	IMWM: Intuition Models Complement World Models for Latent Planning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Learning from Saturated Data: Signals Beyond Correctness for LLM Training	arxiv 2026-05-31	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Don't Ask the LLM to Track Freshness: A Deterministic Recipe for Memory Conflict Resolution	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Don't Ask the LLM to Track Freshness: A Deterministic Recipe for Memory Conflict Resolution	arxiv 2026-05-31	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.65	Benchmarking Local LLMs for Natural-Language-to-SQL Querying in Biopharmaceutical Manufacturing: An Empirical Benchmark on Consumer-Grade Hardware	arxiv 2026-05-31	FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb	AI	62%
0.65	MiCU: End-to-End Smart Home Command Understanding with Large Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.65	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Learning to replenish: A hybrid deep reinforcement learning for dynamic inventory management in the pharmaceutical supply chains	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.65	WorldFly: A World-Model-Based Vision-Language-Action Model for UAV Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	LatentSkill: From In-Context Textual Skills to In-Weight Latent Skills for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Metamorphic Testing with the Rashomon Set: Explanation Faithfulness in Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	ATT-CR: Adaptive Triangular Transformer for Cloud Removal	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	CollabBench: Benchmarking and Unleashing Collaborative Ability of LLMs with Diverse Players via Proactive Engagement	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	TinyML-Driven Cybersecurity for Autonomous Spacecraft: Latency-Accuracy Analysis for SPARTA RF and Cyber Threat Detection	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	DRIFT: A Residual Flow Adapter for Decoding Continuous Outputs in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Let It Be Simple: One-Step Action Generation for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	PerceptUI: LLM Agents as Human-Aligned Synthetic Users for UI/UX Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Fix the Mind, Not the Move: Interpretable AI Assistance via Knowledge-Gap Localization	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Conformal Risk Sharing: Certified Cost Allocation with Participation Guarantees	arxiv 2026-06-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	CLaaS: Continual learning as a service for sample efficient online learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Towards Unified and Data-Efficient Prognostics and Health Management with Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	Agentic Monte Carlo: Simulating Reinforcement Learning for Black-Box Agents	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Bootstrapping Semantic Layer from Execution for Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	CHASE: Adversarial Red-Blue Teaming for Improving LLM Safety using Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	LoRi: Low-Rank Distillation for Implicit Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Probing Outcome-Level Resemblance and Mechanism-Level Alignment in LLM Risk Decisions: Evidence from the St. Petersburg Game	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	BEATS: Bootstrapping E-commerce Attribute Taxonomies for Search through Iterative Human-AI Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	Multilingual Long-Form Speech Instruction Following: KIT's Submission to IWSLT 2026	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Accelerating and Scaling MPC-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Humanoid Locomotion and Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Learning from Demonstrations over Riemannian Manifolds using Neural ODEs: An Extended Abstract	arxiv 2026-06-03	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	Generalization of World Models under Environmental Variability for Vision-based Quadrotor Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Beyond Post-hoc Explanation: Toward Glassbox AI via Probabilistic Mediation	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Bootstrap Theory of Representational Emergence: Explanatory Insufficiency as a Driver of Representation Learning and World Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Geodesics of Dynamic Graphs for Regime Change Detection	arxiv 2026-06-05	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	SWE-Explore: Benchmarking How Coding Agents Explore Repositories	arxiv 2026-06-05	234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Shield-Loco: Shielding Locomotion Policies with Predictive Safety Filtering	arxiv 2026-06-05	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	ActionMap: Robot Policy Learning via Voxel Action Heatmap	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	FDA ANDA209633: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — BRECKENRIDGE	fda 2026-06-03	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.65	An Agency-Transferring Model-Free Policy Enhancement Technique	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	AHA-WAM:Asynchronous Horizon-Adaptive World-Action Modeling with Observation-Guided Context Routing	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Multi-Turn Evaluation of Deep Research Agents Under Process-Level Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Proxy Reward Internalization and Mechanistic Exploitation: A Learned Precursor to Reward Hacking and Its Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	PRISM: Recovering Instruction Sets from Language Model Activations	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	TheoremBench: Evaluating LLMs on Theorem Proving in Formal Mathematics	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Culturally-Adapted Red-Teaming Across East and Southeast Asian Contexts: A Methodological and Comparative Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Hybridizing Equilibrium Propagation with Ising Machines for Efficient Energy-Based Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.65	ATM: Action-Consistency Transfer Matrix for Diagnosing and Improving Latent World Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	AI-Augmented Closed-Loop Quality Engineering: A Reference Architecture for Continuous Software Quality Intelligence	arxiv 2026-06-07	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.65	iOSWorld: A Benchmark for Personally Intelligent Phone Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.65	Rank Intervals for Leaderboards: A Hierarchical Framework for Model Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Tyan-WP: A Wind Power Foundation Model for Ultra-Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Tyan-WP: A Wind Power Foundation Model for Ultra-Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-07	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.65	Convolutional Sparse Coding via the Locally Competitive Algorithm on Loihi 2	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Self-Harness: Harnesses That Improve Themselves	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Detecting Differences Is Not Understanding Structure: Large Language Models Fail at Graph Isomorphism	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	What Should a Skill Remember? Quality-Cost Trade-offs in Cost-Aware Skill Rewriting for Language Model Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.65	More Yap Less Meaning: Uncovering Self-Improvement Behavior in SLMs	arxiv 2026-06-07	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.65	KPGrasp: Scalable Keypoint Flow Matching for Dexterous Grasp Generation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	When Video Misreads: Closed-Loop Distillation of Reading Heuristics for Exploratory Manipulation Trace QA	arxiv 2026-06-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Finite-n Estimate of Dedekind Numbers by Layer-Ratio Monte Carlo	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.65	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-01-06	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Accelerating NeurASP with vectorization and caching	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Divide and Cooperate: Role-Decomposed Multi-Agent LLM Training with Cross-Agent Learning Signals	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Assessing Automated Prompt Injection Attacks in Agentic Environments	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.65	Decoupling Thought from Speech: Knowledge-Grounded Counterfactual Reasoning for Resilient Multi-Agent Argumentation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	Towards Critical Branching Mechanism in Recurrent Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	ReflectiChain: Epistemic Grounding in LLM-Driven World Models for Supply Chain Resilience	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Regimes: An Auditable, Held-Out-Gated Improvement Loop Demonstrated on LongMemEval with ActiveGraph	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_002 Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enterprise reality involves significant operational friction — the 'integration schlep' — characterized by legacy software incompatibilities, rigid corporate bureaucracies, and per... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Macro/Economy	85%
0.65	$τ$-Rec: A Verifiable Benchmark for Agentic Recommender Systems	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	The Order Matters: Sequential Fine-Tuning of LLaMA for Coherent Automated Essay Scoring	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Learning Entropy and Spatial Adaptation Dynamics of Multilayer Perceptrons for Structural Point Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	GHOST: Hierarchical Sub-Goal Policies for Generalizing Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	KCSAT-ML: Probing Reasoning Models with Nationwide-Cohort Human Difficulty	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	AgniNav: Configuration-Driven Cross-Embodiment Local Planning for Robot Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Gradient based Bilevel for Inverse Optimal Control, a Riemannian approach	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Gradient based Bilevel for Inverse Optimal Control, a Riemannian approach	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	Pushing the Performance Limits in Autonomous Racing: Continuous Stability-Aware Adaptive Velocity Planning in Formula Student Driverless	arxiv 2026-06-09	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	By when will Amazon Prime Air (drone delivery) be available in every state?	manifold 2026-06-11	243_029 Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban markets Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	48%
0.65	IntElicit: Eliciting and Assessing Contextualized Creativity via Dialogue Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	Time-Series Foundation Model Embeddings for Remaining Useful Life Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	DuoBench: A Reproducible Benchmark for Bimanual Manipulation in Simulation and the Real World	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	DuoBench: A Reproducible Benchmark for Bimanual Manipulation in Simulation and the Real World	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	StatefulDiscovery: Evidence-Calibrated Claim Formation in Open-Ended Scientific Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Automated Creativity Evaluation of Language Models Across Open-Ended Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	LUCID: Learning Embodiment-Agnostic Intent Models from Unstructured Human Videos for Scalable Dexterous Robot Skill Acquisition	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Physics-Distilled Neural Network enabled by Large Language Models for Manufacturing Process-Property Predictive Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Counterexample Guided Learning in the Large using Reasoning Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Reassessing High-Performing LLMs on Polish Medical Exams: True Competence or Bias-Driven Performance?	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.65	AerialClaw: An Open-Source Framework for LLM-Driven Autonomous Aerial Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.65	Will there be a drone emoji before 2032?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-12	243_030 Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots Dara Khosrowshahi	Robotics	31%
0.65	Reward Modeling for Multi-Agent Orchestration	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%