Validations Queue

92,897 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 234 of 432, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

Pending (total)

92,897

Reviewed

Filtered

86,229

page 234 / 432

Showing on page

200

Filters

URL params control source + min-similarity threshold

Source

All (92897)arxiv (44382)codex_research_pack (134)edgar_8k (3246)fda (4290)gdelt (1218)github_release (3097)manifold (9411)polymarket (27119)

Page size

50 100 200 500

Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

Threshold:Source:Action:

Source0 selected · 0 visible

Bulk action

Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	PHANTOM: A Large-Scale Dataset of Multimodal Adversarial Attacks for Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.61	PHANTOM: A Large-Scale Dataset of Multimodal Adversarial Attacks for Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Structural Kolmogorov-Arnold Convolutions: Learnable Function on the Values or the Filter Shape as Parameter-Efficient Alternative to Per-Edge Convolutional KANs	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Structural Kolmogorov-Arnold Convolutions: Learnable Function on the Values or the Filter Shape as Parameter-Efficient Alternative to Per-Edge Convolutional KANs	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Towards Federated Long-Tailed Graph Learning: An Energy-Guided Dual Decoupling Approach	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.61	Zero-Shot Test-Time Canonicalization using Out-of-Distribution Scoring	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Faithful by Construction: Claim-Anchored Attribution for Multi-Document Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	Model selection with proper scoring rules on data sets of time series	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	A Physics-Informed Fourier-Wavelet Transformer for Multiscale Computational Fluid Dynamics Surrogate Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-23	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	An Agnostic Machine Learning Model of Photosynthetic Habitability	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.61	BehaviorBench: Benchmarking Foundation Models for Behavioral Science Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	BehaviorBench: Benchmarking Foundation Models for Behavioral Science Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	RoPE-Aware Bit Allocation for KV-Cache Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	KLip-PPO: A per-sample KL perspective on PPO-Clip	arxiv 2026-06-22	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Federated Survival Analysis in Healthcare: A Multi-Model Evaluation on Cross-Institutional Heterogeneous Breast Cancer Data	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	PETRA: Transforming Web Text for Petroleum-Engineering Domain Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Layer-wise Probing of wav2vec 2.0 and Whisper for Consonant Cluster Reduction in African American English	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	ObsGraph: Hierarchical Observation Representation for Embodied Reasoning and Exploration	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Scalar diquarks in the QCD vacuum	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	FDA ANDA202214: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — TRIS PHARMA INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	68%
0.61	Spread: United States (-2.5)(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Spread: Japan (-2.5)(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Learning Action Priors for Cross-embodiment Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-24	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	Enhancing Brain MRI Anomaly Detection and Reasoning with ROI Rethink and Synthetic Data	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Enhancing Brain MRI Anomaly Detection and Reasoning with ROI Rethink and Synthetic Data	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Color Matters: Trigger Color Affects Success in Federated Backdoor Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Lightweight PCGAE-Net: Parallel CrossGate Attention and Bottleneck AutoEncoder for Efficient 5G Channel Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-24	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Supervised Post-training of Speech Foundation Models for Robust Adaptation in Speech Deepfake Detection	arxiv 2026-06-24	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.61	Physics Question Scene Graph: Fine-grained Evaluation of Physical Plausibility in Text-to-Video Generation	arxiv 2026-06-24	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.61	Benchmarking the Alignment of Data-Quality Metrics, Human Judgment and Land-Cover Segmentation Performance for Earth Observation	arxiv 2026-06-23	238_022 From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	Adapt Only When It Pays: Budgeted Decision-Loss Priority for Delayed Online Time-Series Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-23	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	LLM-ACES: Closed-Loop Discovery of Dynamical Systems with LLM-Guided Adaptive Search	arxiv 2026-06-23	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Yuvion VL: A Multimodal Foundation Model for Adversarial Content and AI Safety	arxiv 2026-06-23	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.61	When Multi-Sensor Fusion Fails to Generalize: Cattle Posture Classification Under Animal-Level and Temporal Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Variational Autoencoder Layer	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Re-mixing Embeddings for Patient Augmentation in Data Scarce Multiple Instance Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	248_028 Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Gaussian Mean Field Variational Inference can Overestimate Predictive Variance	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Distill on a Diet: Efficient Knowledge Distillation via Learnable Data Pruning	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Blasto-Net: An Explainable Multi-Task Learning for Blastocyst Segmentation, Grading, and Implantation Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Semantic Allocation in Ordered Bottlenecks: Predictive Residual Inference for Visual Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Multi-Stream Temporal Fusion for Financial Fraud Detection	arxiv 2026-06-23	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	Solving Markov Decision Processes with Future Information via MPC	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Learning Diachronic Representations of Ancient Greek Letterforms	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	ConSolv: Solvent-Conditional Machine Learning Implicit Solvent Potential	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Don't Go Breaking My LLM: The Impact of Pruning Attention Layers on Explanation Faithfulness and Confidence Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-23	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	MedGuards: Multi-Agent System for Reliable Medical Error Detection and Correction	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Story Operators: Decomposing the Original $\to$ Sequel Transformation in Embedding Space	arxiv 2026-06-24	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	Efficient and Trainable Language Model Test-Time Scaling via Local Branch Routing	arxiv 2026-06-24	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.61	Automatic Generation of Highlights for Academic Paper Via Prompt-based Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	The cognitive, affective, and behavioral expression of self-stigma among people who use drugs in online substance use communities	arxiv 2026-06-23	246_033 Insecurity of human-authored code will be recognized before insecurity of human drivers is legally. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	TacVerse: A Multi-Sensor Dataset and Benchmark for Cross-Sensor Vision-Based Tactile Perception	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Calousel: Extrinsic Calibration of Non-overlapping Multi-camera Systems from Pure Rotation	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	AISPO: Enhancing Depth Reliability for Robotic Manipulation of Non-Lambertian Objects via Affine-Invariant Shape Prior	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Resonant false vacuum decay in two dimensions on a 4000-qubit quantum annealer	arxiv 2026-06-24	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	A Solar-System Window for Hidden Stellar Companions	arxiv 2026-06-23	246_019 Interstellar travel will use solar sail powered by terowatt lasers carrying uploaded humans. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.61	FDA ANDA205057: TAPENTADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TAPENTADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Spread: Belgium (-2.5)(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Spread: Belgium (-1.5)(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Spain leading at halftime?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Spread: Spain (-3.5)(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Understanding Domain-Aware Distribution Alignment in Budgeted Entity Matching	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	CARVE: Content-Aware Recurrent with Value Efficiency for Chunk-Parallel Linear Attention	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Vulnerability of Natural Language Classifiers to Evolutionary Generated Adversarial Text	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	On-board Remote-Sensing Foundation Models for Unsupervised Change Detection of Disaster Events	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Risk-Aware Selective Multimodal Driver Monitoring with Driver-State World Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Risk-Aware Selective Multimodal Driver Monitoring with Driver-State World Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-25	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Context-Aware Synthesis of Optimization Pipelines for Warehouse Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Context-Aware Synthesis of Optimization Pipelines for Warehouse Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Discovering Millions of Interpretable Features with Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-25	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.61	PMDformer: Patch-Mean Decoupling Information Transformer for Long-term Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-25	240_019 Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.61	3D Spatial Pattern Matching	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	TEMPO-Diffusion: Temporally Exposed Malicious Poisoning of Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.61	When are likely answers right? On Sequence Probability and Correctness in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Ribbon: Scalable Approximation and Robust Uncertainty Quantification	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	DroidBreaker: Practical and Functional Problem-Space Attacks on Machine-Learning Android Malware Detectors	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	DualEval: Joint Model-Item Calibration for Unified LLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	High-Probability PL-SGD with Markovian Noise: Optimal Mixing and Tail Dependence	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Comparing BERT Sentence-Pair Classification and Few-Shot LLM Prompting for Detecting Threat and Solution Framing in German Climate News	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	ProfileFoundry: A Synthetic Person-Object Substrate for Privacy, Memory, and Tool-Use Evaluation in LLM Agent	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.61	ProfileFoundry: A Synthetic Person-Object Substrate for Privacy, Memory, and Tool-Use Evaluation in LLM Agent	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_015 The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen resumes generated by other bot agents, completely removing the human connection required to accurately assess contextual experience — bot-on-bot recursive... Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	86%
0.61	RelAfford6D: Relational 6D Affordance Graphs for Constraint-Driven Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.61	UAV-MapFusion: RTK-Aligned Uncertainty-Aware Coarse-to-Fine Multi-Session UAV Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	FDA ANDA217449: BALOXAVIR MARBOXIL (BALOXAVIR MARBOXIL) — NORWICH	fda 2026-06-17	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA040838: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — PHARM ASSOC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	facebookresearch/SONAR v0.4.0	github_release 2025-03-17	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.61	Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.61	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.61	Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.61	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	237_012 Over the next 12 months OpenClaw technology will be digested into corporations, causing destruction (layoffs) but also growth. Alex Finn	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.61	Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2025-07-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.61	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-28	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	this market will resolve to yes if it closes with a greater than 50% chance of resolving to yes(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-04-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will the wild population of North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) become Extinct by 2100?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-04-24	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.61	anduril palantir spacex cambiando forma estados unidos 20260430020434 nt.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	meta stock drops company ramps 233826186.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)	—	22%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	why investors didnt give meta a pass on increased spending despite a great quarter.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	984371 robot dogs elon musk jeff bezos heads viral	gdelt 2026-04-30	230_022 Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. Elon Musk	Robotics	31%
0.61	984371 robot dogs elon musk jeff bezos heads viral	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_038 Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humans Jason Calacanis	Labor/Jobs	35%
0.61	LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Xi Jinping out by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.61	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.61	Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Will Kamala announce a run in 2028(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-04-30	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.61	Will the Green Party or Labour next have a leadership election, after 30th April 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-29	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.61	LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.61	Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-04-19	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.61	Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-01	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?	manifold 2026-05-02	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.61	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.61	Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-03	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	US Average Gas Price on May 4 2026?	manifold 2026-05-03	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.61	Manifold Meta-Futarchy 2026	manifold 2026-05-02	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-02	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.61	Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-29	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.61	Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.61	Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-04	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.61	Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.61	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-05	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-05	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.61	FDA NDA206628: DEXMEDETOMIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (DEXMEDETOMIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HQ SPCLT PHARMA	fda 2026-05-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA218738: GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE (GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE) — TEVA PHARMS INC	fda 2026-04-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA073484: VALPROIC ACID (VALPROIC ACID) — BIONPHARMA	fda 2026-04-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA220225: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.31.0	github_release 2026-04-08	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.8.1	github_release 2025-11-17	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.7.2	github_release 2025-11-10	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.2	github_release 2022-06-13	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.1.0	github_release 2021-11-02	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.1.0	github_release 2021-11-02	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.0.1	github_release 2021-09-30	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.5.3	github_release 2026-04-09	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.5.2	github_release 2026-04-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.5.2	github_release 2026-04-09	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v4.56.1	github_release 2025-09-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.21.0	github_release 2026-03-06	CMQ_030 In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	34%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.21.0	github_release 2026-03-06	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.15.0-rc0	github_release 2023-10-25	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v2.8.0	github_release 2025-08-06	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61	Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.61	US Strategic Petroleum Reserve - lowest value in 2026	manifold 2026-05-06	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will "[Linkpost] Interpreting Language Model Parameters" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will "[Linkpost] Interpreting Language Model Parameters" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Will this market appear on a mug?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-06	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.61	SERE: Structural Example Retrieval for Enhancing LLMs in Event Causality Identification	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	AdapShot: Adaptive Many-Shot In-Context Learning with Semantic-Aware KV Cache Reuse	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	CuraView: A Multi-Agent Framework for Medical Hallucination Detection with GraphRAG-Enhanced Knowledge Verification	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.61	GeoDecider: A Coarse-to-Fine Agentic Workflow for Explainable Lithology Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	FreeTimeGS++: Secrets of Dynamic Gaussian Splatting and Their Principles	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Partially Observed Structural Causal Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Ortho-Hydra: Orthogonalized Experts for DiT LoRA	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	OptiLookUp: An Optical ROM-Based Loop up Table Engine for Photonic Accelerators	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Computing Thiele Rules on Interval Elections and their Generalizations	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%