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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Iran leadership change by April 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-09 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 229_037 With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. Peter Diamandis | Energy | 21% | |
| 0.56 | Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Magic(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: GTZ Esports vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-13.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | |
| 0.56 | Flyers vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: LYON vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Flyers vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | ||
| 0.56 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-02-20 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.56 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Sinja Kraus(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Vit Kopriva(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-03-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.56 | Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 234_039 Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city Dave Blundin | Real Estate | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 217.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Thunder vs. Lakers(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-11-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: HOTU vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-12 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Atlanta Dream vs. Dallas Wings(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-01-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | New York Yankees vs. New York Mets(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | New York Yankees vs. New York Mets(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.56 | New York Yankees vs. New York Mets(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-07 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-07 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Will Alberta join the US? (market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-06 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Spurs vs. Thunder(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 234_009 Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably Alex Wissner-Gross | Defense | 39% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Harry Wendelken(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Spurs vs. Thunder(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | |
| 0.56 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Jakob Glesnes win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-06 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will David Njoku play for Denver Broncos in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | |
| 0.56 | New York Yankees vs. Athletics(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk | Robotics | 18% | |
| 0.56 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.56 | Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Union Bordeaux Begles win?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk | Robotics | 18% | |
| 0.56 | T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-31 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.56 | Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5)(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Perugia: Francesco Forti vs Jelle Sels(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Knicks vs. Spurs(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-02-11 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | La Laguna Tenerife vs. Real Madrid(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will England win?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will New Zealand win?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Reyer Venezia vs. Virtus Bologna(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.56 | Reyer Venezia vs. Virtus Bologna(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-8.5)(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran Play in the World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Reyer Venezia vs. Virtus Bologna(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.56 | Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Santiago De La Fuente(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will George Pickens play for Buffalo Bills in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | 234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 38% | |
| 0.56 | ITF Decatur: Ena Koike vs Ana Grubor(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% |