Validations Queue

64,690 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 25 of 75, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.63manifold
2026-04-25
230_021
Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.
Peter Diamandis
Robotics36%
0.63manifold
2026-04-23
AUT_007
2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll...
Chamath Palihapitiya
Macro/Economy13%
0.63
Bitcoin $65K in May?(market prob: 9%)
manifold
2026-05-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63
Bitcoin $84K in May?(market prob: 75%)
manifold
2026-05-01
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.63
Bitcoin $80K in May?(market prob: 89%)
manifold
2026-05-01
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.63manifold
2026-05-01
238_047
US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar
Emad Mostaque
Energy45%
0.63manifold
2026-05-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2028
First $1T+ IPO in 2028
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63manifold
2026-05-02
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.63manifold
2026-05-03
238_047
US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar
Emad Mostaque
Energy45%
0.63manifold
2026-05-05
FUT_002
Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali...
Superforecaster Community
AI40%
0.63manifold
2026-05-05
246_007
SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks35%
0.63manifold
2026-05-05
229_008
By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).
Brett Adcock
Biotech/Longevity44%
0.63manifold
2026-05-05
234_051
Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking
Alex Wissner-Gross
Consumer38%
0.63manifold
2026-05-07
235_042
OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.63manifold
2026-05-07
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.63manifold
2026-05-07
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.63manifold
2026-05-08
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.63manifold
2026-05-04
INF_048
Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets.
IEA
Energy48%
0.63manifold
2026-05-10
235_028
Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years.
Peter Diamandis
Biotech/Longevity56%
0.63manifold
2026-05-09
235_043
Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification.
Salim Ismail
Defense36%
0.63manifold
2026-05-12
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63manifold
2026-05-12
239_002
AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest
Elon Musk
AI44%
0.63manifold
2026-05-12
FUT_022
Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking...
Peter Zeihan
Macro/Economy72%
0.63manifold
2026-05-16
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63manifold
2026-05-16
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63manifold
2026-05-16
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.63manifold
2026-05-18
INF_027
AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC.
Demis Hassabis
Biotech/Longevity38%
0.63manifold
2026-05-18
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.63manifold
2026-05-18
237_011
AI agents will have voices in the near future.
Alex Finn
AI43%
0.63manifold
2026-05-19
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.63manifold
2026-05-28
242_055
Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks34%
0.63manifold
2026-05-26
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.63manifold
2026-05-25
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.63manifold
2026-05-25
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63
Will I bet on this market?(market prob: 32%)
manifold
2026-05-30
244_033
Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail
Dara Khosrowshahi
Markets/Stocks51%
0.63manifold
2026-05-30
242_037
China will land on the moon before end of 2030
China (government)
Space46%
0.63
Bitcoin $60k in June?(market prob: 99%)
manifold
2026-06-02
247_040
AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin
Alex Wissner-Gross
Crypto26%
0.63manifold
2026-06-02
242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy34%
0.63
Bitcoin $78K in June?(market prob: 4%)
manifold
2026-06-02
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.63manifold
2026-05-31
246_002
SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks46%
0.63manifold
2026-06-03
238_017
Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026)
Dara Khosrowshahi
Labor/Jobs51%
0.63
Elon Musk's Death(market prob: 1%)
manifold
2026-06-03
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.63manifold
2026-06-05
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.63manifold
2026-06-05
S_RECESSION_2026
NBER recession declared 2026
macro_recession20%
0.63manifold
2026-06-05
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.63manifold
2026-06-07
229_020
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Brett Adcock
Robotics20%
0.63manifold
2026-06-07
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.63manifold
2026-06-07
CMQ_015
Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI50%
0.63manifold
2026-06-07
AUT_007
2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll...
Chamath Palihapitiya
Macro/Economy13%
0.63manifold
2026-06-10
SEM_041
At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).
Brett Adcock
Robotics42%
0.63manifold
2026-06-10
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.63manifold
2026-06-11
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.63manifold
2026-06-08
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.62manifold
2026-04-29
FUT_022
Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking...
Peter Zeihan
Macro/Economy72%
0.62manifold
2026-04-29
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.62manifold
2026-04-28
229_028
Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.
Brett Adcock
Robotics69%
0.62manifold
2026-04-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.62manifold
2026-04-25
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.62manifold
2026-04-25
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.62manifold
2026-04-24
230_034
Abundance will be achieved by 2035.
Peter Diamandis
Macro/Economy50%
0.62manifold
2026-04-24
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.62manifold
2026-05-01
AUT_024
H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int...
Morgan Stanley
AI49%
0.62manifold
2026-05-01
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.62manifold
2026-05-01
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.62manifold
2026-05-03
TK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25%
0.62manifold
2026-05-04
SEM_032
15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI/Mathematics15%
0.62manifold
2026-05-04
247_007
Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027
Peter Diamandis
AI50%
0.62manifold
2026-05-04
CYB_003
Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI...
Alex Finn
AI55%
0.62manifold
2026-05-05
230_040
AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly.
Peter Diamandis
AI50%
0.62manifold
2026-05-07
235_006
By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.62manifold
2026-05-08
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.62manifold
2026-05-07
238_071
Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.62manifold
2026-05-09
232_012
US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets.
Ben Horowitz
Geopolitics44%
0.62manifold
2026-05-11
SEM_009
The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+).
Mark Cuban
Economy30%
0.62manifold
2026-05-13
SEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.
Kevin Weil
AI/Agents74%
0.62manifold
2026-05-13
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.62manifold
2026-05-12
CMQ_004
AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027.
Dario Amodei
AI28%
0.62manifold
2026-05-15
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.62manifold
2026-05-15
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.62manifold
2026-05-17
243_002
Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport75%
0.62manifold
2026-05-16
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.62
New fish species (market prob: 69%)
manifold
2026-05-19
COD_BIO_005
Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.62manifold
2026-05-18
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.62manifold
2026-05-29
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.62manifold
2026-05-26
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.62manifold
2026-05-26
239_002
AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest
Elon Musk
AI44%
0.62manifold
2026-05-24
FUT_006
Organizations must practice 'creative destruction on purpose' 2026-2031: deliberately dismantle legacy operations before lateral multi-domain convergence renders them obsolete. Traditional technology hype cycle rejected; future no longer arrives one tr...
Amy Webb
Macro/Economy50%
0.62manifold
2026-06-01
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.62manifold
2026-06-02
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.62manifold
2026-06-02
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.62manifold
2026-06-02
SEM_013
Every nation needs to build advanced chip manufacturing capability — sovereign semiconductor production is existential.
Jensen Huang
Policy/Semis73%
0.62
Elon Musk's Death(market prob: 1%)
manifold
2026-06-03
246_008
Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks62%
0.62manifold
2026-06-04
231_019
Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Other39%
0.62manifold
2026-06-05
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.62manifold
2026-06-06
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.62manifold
2026-06-06
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.62manifold
2026-06-07
238_040
Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.62manifold
2026-06-06
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.62manifold
2026-06-07
COD_TECH_001
A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps
Codex Research Pack
Semis50%
0.62manifold
2026-06-08
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%