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49,835 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 7 of 51, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.70	Towards Healthy Evolution: Exploring the Role and Mechanisms of Human-Agent Interaction in Self-Evolving Systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Optimizing the Cost-Quality Tradeoff of Agentic Theorem Provers in Lean	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	What Is My Robot Thinking? Design Considerations for Transparent and Trustworthy Shared Autonomy	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	meta beats estimates but soaring ai spending rattles investors 1091449.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.70	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.98.0	github_release 2026-05-04	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.70	Contextual Multi-Objective Optimization: Rethinking Objectives in Frontier AI Systems	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	AfriVox-v2: A Domain-Verticalized Benchmark for In-the-Wild African Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	When Correct Isn't Usable: Improving Structured Output Reliability in Small Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Recursive Agent Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Visual Fingerprints for LLM Generation Comparison	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Novelty-based Tree-of-Thought Search for LLM Reasoning and Planning	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Federation of Experts: Communication Efficient Distributed Inference for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Understanding diffusion models requires rethinking (again) generalization	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.70	AssistDLO: Assistive Teleoperation for Deformable Linear Object Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Which prediction markets IPO in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-11	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.70	MEME: Multi-entity & Evolving Memory Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	Do Enterprise Systems Need Learned World Models? The Importance of Context to Infer Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.70	Do Enterprise Systems Need Learned World Models? The Importance of Context to Infer Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Multi-Narrow Transformation as a Single-Model Ensemble: Boundary Conditions, Mechanisms, and Failure Modes	arxiv 2026-05-12	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.70	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.70	Distinguishing performance gains from learning when using generative AI	arxiv 2026-05-13	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.70	A Hierarchical Language Model with Predictable Scaling Laws and Provable Benefits of Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	Characterizing Universal Object Representations Across Vision Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.70	MARLIN: Multi-Agent Game-Theoretic Reinforcement Learning for Sustainable LLM Inference in Cloud Datacenters	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.70	Controlling Logical Collapse in LLMs via Algebraic Ontology Projection over F2	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Position: Behavioural Assurance Cannot Verify the Safety Claims Governance Now Demands	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.70	Slower Generalization, Faster Memorization: A Sweet Spot in Algorithmic Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	An Amortized Efficiency Threshold for Comparing Neural and Heuristic Solvers in Combinatorial Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.70	Lang2MLIP: End-to-End Language-to-Machine Learning Interatomic Potential Development with Autonomous Agentic Workflows	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Position: Weight Space Should Be a First-Class Generative AI Modality	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	The Expressive Power of Low Precision Softmax Transformers with (Summarized) Chain-of-Thought	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Temporal Stability and Few-Shot Prompting in Math Task Assessment	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.70	Enhancing Multi-Agent Communication through Attention Steering with Context Relevance	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	How Reliable Are AI Attackers Against a Fixed Vulnerable Target? A 400-Run Empirical Study of LLM Penetration Testing Consistency	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.70	Agora: Toward Autonomous Bug Detection in Production-Level Consensus Protocols with LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.70	OmniMatBench: A Human-Calibrated Multimodal Reasoning Benchmark Across 19 Materials Science Subfields	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	COMPOSE: Composing Future Theorems from Citations and Formal Structure	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will my YouTube Channel have more than 15 subscribers at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-02	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.70	Multi-Agent Computer Use	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	How many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun)	manifold 2026-06-02	SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	74%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Towards World Models in Biomedical Research	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.70	LLMCodec: Adapting Video Codecs for Efficient Weight Compression of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Human Oversight and Overload: Two Hidden and Costly Burdens of AI-Assisted Software Engineering	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.70	Safe Embodied AI for Long-horizon Tasks: A Cross-layer Analysis of Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Less is MoE: Trimming Experts in Domain-Specialist Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Think Fast: Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk	AI	17%
0.70	Auditing Training Data in Domain-adapted LLMs: LoRA-MINT	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-20	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.70	Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-04-25	IND_020 Massive 'rerating' of Biotech industry — by 2026, generative biology achieves its 'De Novo' moment where an AI-designed drug candidate triggers multi-billion-dollar partnerships; AI expands Total Addressable Market (TAM) of gene editing by 100x, moving... Morgan Stanley	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.70	Will SpaceX IPO before Bitcoin hits $100K again?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-04-23	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.70	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.70	Humanoid robot walking around me within three years?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-04-30	236_021 Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) Elon Musk	Robotics	24%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	☀️What will happen in June 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]	manifold 2026-05-01	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.70	Bitcoin $67K in May?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Price of WTI by evening of May 31, 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.70	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.93.0	github_release 2026-04-09	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.70	A Benchmark for Interactive World Models with a Unified Action Generation Framework	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Brainrot: Deskilling and Addiction are Overlooked AI Risks	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.70	What Happens Inside Agent Memory? Circuit Analysis from Emergence to Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.70	RLDX-1 Technical Report	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	HAAS: A Policy-Aware Framework for Adaptive Task Allocation Between Humans and Artificial Intelligence Systems	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	AI-Generated Smells: An Analysis of Code and Architecture in LLM and Agent-Driven Development	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.70	Position: the Stochastic Parrot in the Coal Mine. Model Collapse is a Threat to Low-Resource Communities	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.70	When AI Meets Science: Research Diversity, Interdisciplinarity, Visibility, and Retractions across Disciplines in a Global Surge	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.70	Rethinking RL for LLM Reasoning: It's Sparse Policy Selection, Not Capability Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.70	VLA-GSE: Boosting Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning in VLA with Generalized and Specialized Experts	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB) (CIK 0001819994)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	SPC_004 Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenue $602M (+38% YoY), market cap nearing $49B by early 2026 — as a key beneficiary of the SpaceX-ecosystem repricing wave. Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	83%
0.70	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Not Just RLHF: Why Alignment Alone Won't Fix Multi-Agent Sycophancy	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Position: Behavioural Assurance Cannot Verify the Safety Claims Governance Now Demands	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.70	An Interpretable Latency Model for Speculative Decoding in LLM Serving	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-15	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 19?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.70	Modelling Customer Trajectories with Reinforcement Learning for Practical Retail Insights	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.70	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.103.0	github_release 2026-05-19	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.70	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.70	Meta-Cognitive Memory Policy Optimization for Long-Horizon LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	Battery-Sim-Agent: Leveraging LLM-Agent for Inverse Battery Parameter Estimation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Open Problem: Separating Geometric and Algorithmic Compression via Cayley-Table Completion	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	LLM-Guided Future Hypotheses for Horizon-Aware Exploration in Multi-Step Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-01	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.70	Iteris: Agentic Research Loops for Computational Mathematics	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Agent Operating Systems (AOS): Integrating Agentic Control Planes into, and Beyond, Traditional Operating Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Agent Memory: Characterization and System Implications of Stateful Long-Horizon Workloads	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.70	Humans' ALMANAC: A Human Collaboration Dataset of Action-Level Mental Model Annotations for Agent Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	CogManip: Benchmarking Manipulative Behavior in Multi-Turn Interactions with Large Language Model	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	Human Oversight and Overload: Two Hidden and Costly Burdens of AI-Assisted Software Engineering	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_027 Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a '20-80 human split' — AI handles 80% of cognitive labor, humans handle 20%, driving recursive self-improvement timelines toward the Singularity; fundamental inversion from hum... Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.70	Individual Gain, Collective Loss: Metacognitive Adaptation in AI-Assisted Creativity	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB) (CIK 0001819994)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	SPC_004 Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenue $602M (+38% YoY), market cap nearing $49B by early 2026 — as a key beneficiary of the SpaceX-ecosystem repricing wave. Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	83%
0.70	An Abstract Architecture for Explainable Autonomy in Hazardous Environments	arxiv 2026-06-05	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.70	Think Fast: Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.70	The Three-Ring Architecture: Governing Agents in the Era of On-Platform Organisations	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_027 Autonomous AI agents cannot function efficiently on legacy slow-moving fiat banking rails — therefore AI systems will inevitably adopt Bitcoin and scalable cryptographic networks as their native digital capital, operating independently across borders a... Michael Saylor	Crypto	25%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-04-29	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.70	Humanoid robot walking around me within a year?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-26	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.70	METR - Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks	codex_research_pack 2025-03-19	COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI	36%
0.70	OECD - Exploring Possible AI Trajectories Through 2030	codex_research_pack 2026-04-26	COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI	36%
0.70	NVIDIA - Rubin Platform, Open Models, Autonomous Driving at CES	codex_research_pack 2026-01-06	COD_AI_001 Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026 Codex Research Pack	Technology	51%
0.70	NVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontier	codex_research_pack 2026-03-16	COD_AI_001 Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026 Codex Research Pack	Technology	51%
0.70	NVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontier	codex_research_pack 2026-03-16	COD_AI_002 At least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by Q1 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI/Compute	40%
0.70	NVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontier	codex_research_pack 2026-03-16	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.70	European Commission - AI Act	codex_research_pack 2026-04-28	COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack	Geopolitics	40%
0.70	European Commission - Guidelines for providers of general-purpose AI models	codex_research_pack 2026-04-28	COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack	Geopolitics	40%
0.70	Figure - Ramping Figure 03 Production	codex_research_pack 2026-04-29	COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	24%
0.70	Figure - Ramping Figure 03 Production	codex_research_pack 2026-04-29	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.70	Figure - BotQ: A High-Volume Manufacturing Facility for Humanoid Robots	codex_research_pack 2025-03-16	COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	24%
0.70	1X - NEO Factory in Hayward with Consumer Shipments Planned for 2026	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	31%
0.70	1X - NEO Factory in Hayward with Consumer Shipments Planned for 2026	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.70	1X - NEO's Starting to Learn On Its Own	codex_research_pack 2026-01-12	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	31%
0.70	Agility Robotics - RoboFab and company milestones	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.70	NASA - Charts More Reliable Course for America's Return to Lunar Surface	codex_research_pack 2026-03-01	COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack	Space	44%
0.70	NASA - Charts More Reliable Course for America's Return to Lunar Surface	codex_research_pack 2026-03-01	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.70	NASA OIG - NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts	codex_research_pack 2026-03-01	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.70	NASA OIG - NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts	codex_research_pack 2026-03-01	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	35%
0.70	NASA - Europa Clipper Mission Timeline	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	48%
0.70	NASA - Dragonfly development and launch schedule	codex_research_pack 2025-09-08	COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack	Space	33%
0.70	NASA - ESCAPADE begins journey to Mars on New Glenn	codex_research_pack 2025-11-13	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.70	Vast - Haven-1 targeted to launch May 2026	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_SPC_006 Vast Haven-1 reaches orbit by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	52%
0.70	FDA - Framework for AI Models Used for Drug and Biological Product Submissions	codex_research_pack 2025-01-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.70	Isomorphic Labs - $600M funding to advance therapeutic programs into the clinic	codex_research_pack 2025-03-31	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.70	Colossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipeline	codex_research_pack 2025-03-04	COD_BIO_003 Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	20%
0.70	Colossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipeline	codex_research_pack 2025-03-04	COD_BIO_004 Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	12%
0.70	Colossal - Dire Wolf project	codex_research_pack 2025-04-07	COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.70	Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_003 Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	20%
0.70	Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_004 Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	12%
0.70	Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.70	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.70	Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.70	From Intent to Execution: Composing Agentic Workflows with Agent Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Say the Mission, Execute the Swarm: Agent-Enhanced LLM Reasoning in the Web-of-Drones	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Cryptographic Registry Provenance: Structural Defense Against Dependency Confusion in AI Package Ecosystems	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.70	When Agents Handle Secrets: A Survey of Confidential Computing for Agentic AI	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.70	AcademiClaw: When Students Set Challenges for AI Agents	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Rethinking Local Learning: A Cheaper and Faster Recipe for LLM Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Improving the Efficiency of Language Agent Teams with Adaptive Task Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Intentmaking and Sensemaking: Human Interaction with AI-Guided Mathematical Discovery	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	ReActor: Reinforcement Learning for Physics-Aware Motion Retargeting	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Priming, Path-dependence, and Plasticity: Understanding the molding of user-LLM interaction and its implications from (many) chat logs in the wild	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.70	ReaComp: Compiling LLM Reasoning into Symbolic Solvers for Efficient Program Synthesis	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Rethinking Local Learning: A Cheaper and Faster Recipe for LLM Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	CKT-WAM: Parameter-Efficient Context Knowledge Transfer Between World Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	MEME: Multi-entity & Evolving Memory Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	Probing Non-Equilibrium Grain Boundary Dynamics with XPCS and Domain-Adaptive Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Fast MoE Inference via Predictive Prefetching and Expert Replication	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	An Agentic AI Framework with Large Language Models and Chain-of-Thought for UAV-Assisted Logistics Scheduling with Mobile Edge Computing	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Concurrency without Model Changes: Future-based Asynchronous Function Calling for LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Of these potential 2028 candidates for president, who will be the first 3 to officially run?	manifold 2026-05-17	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-05-18	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.70	Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.70	Position: Weight Space Should Be a First-Class Generative AI Modality	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Learning to Choose: An Empowerment-Guided Multi-Agent System with semantic communication for Adaptive Method Selection	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.70	AgentDoG 1.5: A Lightweight and Scalable Alignment Framework for AI Agent Safety and Security	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.70	On the Optimizer Dependence of Neural Scaling Laws	arxiv 2026-05-28	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.70	Compute Allocation in Evolutionary Search: From Depth-Breadth to Multi-Armed Bandits	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%