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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 | Do you like 46% odds?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg | Labor/Jobs | 22% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Softbank Group Corp. (9984.t) close at over 8000 on Jun11?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 230_025 The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. Peter Diamandis | AI | 52% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_042 On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Claude Mythos be released by the end of June 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.59 | Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will any 2026 World Cup team advance through group stage with 0 wins?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.59 | Free Lottery (expansion of universe)(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.59 | US in control of Chagos Islands by end of 2028?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | Donald Trump praise Allah again before 2027?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-11 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | ||
| 0.59 | Free Lottery (cosmic microwave background)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | |
| 0.59 | Will the UzChess Cup (Masters division) go to tiebreaks?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.59 | Free Lottery (Cosmic Microwave Background)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 33% | ||
| 0.59 | Will a current moderator lose their role before end of month?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | |
| 0.59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I solve an Erdos problem?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-25 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | |
| 0.59 | Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-29 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-27 | COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 48% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.59 | Will the face of Jose Luis Ricon be minted on a physical coin by 2222(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033 | humanoid_deployment | 10% | ||
| 0.59 | will i qualify for arml tiebreaker 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.59 | Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_056 Helion will supply OpenAI with 5 gigawatts of fusion electricity by 2030 (roughly 100 Helion 50-MW reactors, equivalent to ~73% of Grand Coulee Dam) — a 100x step-up from Helion's existing Microsoft commitment. Sam Altman | Energy | 46% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_018 SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses. SMIC (All-In Podcast analysis) | Semis | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.59 | Will New York City temperature go up in the next 24h?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-05 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.59 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30? [Polymarket](market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-07 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | ||
| 0.59 | Will North Korea conduct a major military provocation(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-10 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | Will SF Prop A, June 2026, pass?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 9¾(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-13 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | This Market will Resolve at number of Traders%(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_031 Wealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workers Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 51% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-17 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-18 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-18 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | ||
| 0.59 | Will SPY close below $720 on Friday, May 29, 2026?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.59 | Will Brent crude futures close above $110 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Will Brent crude futures close above $110 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-18 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 44% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-18 | IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 23% | ||
| 0.59 | Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | 1 in 6 Adults are NEET in 2031 (UK)(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 44% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 241_009 Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AI Eric Schmidt | Labor/Jobs | 51% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 248_049 Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-24 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Rick Wang qualify for USNCO nationals 2027?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | Will NSSB get delayed by more than 30 minutes?(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_015 Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-31 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | Free Lottery (tidal disruption event)(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 10% | |
| 0.59 | How cheap will fully farm-raised eel get? / 完全養殖ウナギ、いくらまで安くなる？(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.59 | Will Softbank Group Corp. (9984.t) close at over 8000 on Jun11?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | |
| 0.59 | Will I increase the number of pull ups I can do by 50%+ by 25th June?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Ukraine militarily recapture Sumy Oblast by the end of the war?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.59 | Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | Free Lottery (expansion of universe)(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-10 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I meet a trader on this market at Manifest 2026?(market prob: 88%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | Free Lottery (Big Bang nucleosynthesis )(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% |