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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) (CIK 0000769397)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.9	github_release 2025-11-28	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Sadio Mane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	US-Iran deal text released by June 19? [Polymarket](market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-06-16	237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn	AI	41%
0.59	FusionRS: A Large-Scale RGB-Infrared Remote Sensing Dataset for Dual-Modal Vision-Language Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Cascaded Sparse Autoencoders Learn Multi-Level Visual Concepts in Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.59	A comparative and critical study of EEGNet for fNIRS-driven cognitive load classification	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.59	A Comprehensive Survey of Medical Image Segmentation: Challenges, Benchmarks, and Beyond	arxiv 2026-06-15	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	ALCL: An Adaptive Log-Correntropy Loss for Robust Learning under Non-Gaussian Noise	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.59	Task-guided cross-subject latent alignment: a multi-encoder-decoder VAE	arxiv 2026-06-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.59	Filtered Conformal Ellipsoids for Graph-Native Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.59	Scalable Pairwise Kernel Learning with Stochastic Vec Trick	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.59	On the Entropy Formula for Real, Complex, and Quaternionic Deep Linear Networks	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.59	QK-Normed MLA: QK normalization without full key caching	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.59	Data-driven Control with Real-time Uncertainty Compensation for Multi-Fuel Engines	arxiv 2026-06-15	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.59	Closing the Approximation Gap in Simulation-free Latent SDEs	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	TMASC: Transmasculine Attitude and Speech Corpus	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	ROMPAR: Morphological Completion and Demographic Unlearning for Romanian-Accented Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	A Large-Scale Multi-Dimensional Empirical Study of LLMs for Conversation Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.59	A Large-Scale Multi-Dimensional Empirical Study of LLMs for Conversation Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	ttda704 at SemEval-2026 Task 6: Structured Chain-of-Thought Prompting for Political Evasion Detection	arxiv 2026-06-14	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	ttda704 at SemEval-2026 Task 6: Structured Chain-of-Thought Prompting for Political Evasion Detection	arxiv 2026-06-14	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Self-gravitating electromagnetic waves in the dark bubble model	arxiv 2026-06-15	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Ultraviolet Structure of Real-time Gravitational Wave Linear Response in a Resonant Scalar Field	arxiv 2026-06-15	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	FDA ANDA209738: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Spread: Ghana (-2.5)(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-06-16	237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis	AI	59%
0.59	SkillMoV: Mixture-of-View Routing with Prototype-Conditioned Gating for Unified Multi-View Proficiency Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Feynman Kac Reweighted Schrödinger Bridge Matching for Surface-Based Tau PET Harmonization	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	NoiseTilt: Noise-Tilted Reverse Kernels for Diffusion Reward Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Blind Recovery of Latent Domains via Unsupervised Symmetry Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	A fairness-aware extension of Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis for ranking	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Tight $L_\infty$ Sample Complexity for Low-Degree and Sparse Boolean Polynomials	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Not Truly Multilingual: Script Consistency as a Missing Dimension in VLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Not Truly Multilingual: Script Consistency as a Missing Dimension in VLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	PyPeakRankR: Reproducible Peak-Level Feature Extraction for Regulatory Element Ranking	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.59	Universal structure in the interactions of massless fields on the lightcone	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Are neutrinos Majorana? Fixed-target and high-energy astrophysical searches decide	arxiv 2026-06-15	232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Will Bryan Reynolds lead the MLB in doubles for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Maikel Garcia lead the MLB in doubles for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.59	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	247_039 Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right Dave Blundin	Crypto	54%
0.59	Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) (CIK 0000769397)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	Bloom Energy Corp (BE) (CIK 0001664703)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.59	ThinkDeception: A Progressive Reinforcement Learning Framework for Interpretable Multimodal Deception Detection	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.59	Neural Phase Correlation	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Online Distributional Prediction via Latent Cluster Geometry Under Drift and Corruption	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Contextualizing Biological Language Models across Modalities via Logit-Space Contrastive Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Concept Modulation Models: A Unified Framework for Identifiability and Extrapolation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	A High-accuracy Event-based Underwater SLAM System	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Universal entanglement probes of topological order and locally-achiral manifolds	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	pytorch/pytorch v2.12.1	github_release 2026-06-18	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will DELL close above $470 this week?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-19	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.59	Will a country do a bombing live stream by EOY 2030?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-19	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-18	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.59	Toward Calibrated Mixture-of-Experts Under Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	SL-S4Wave: Self-Supervised Learning of Physiological Waveforms with Structured State Space Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Cross-Dataset, Age, and Gender Generalization: A Comprehensive Analysis of Fine-Tuning Strategies for Low-Resource Children's ASR	arxiv 2026-06-18	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.59	Denoising Implicit Feedback for Cold-start Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.59	RIVET: Robust Idempotent Voice Attribute Editing	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Which Pairs to Compare for LLM Post-Training?	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Which Pairs to Compare for LLM Post-Training?	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	A BART-based approach with hierarchical strategy for Vietnamese abstractive multi-document summarization	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Exploring Feature Extraction Technique Parameters for Acoustic Gunshot Classification	arxiv 2026-06-17	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.59	Data Bias Mitigation under Coverage Constraints & The Price of Fairness	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.59	Quantum-classical physics-informed Kolmogorov-Arnold networks for PDEs	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.59	Adversarial Bandit Optimization with Globally Bounded Perturbations to Convex Losses	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.59	Segment-Level Mandarin Chinese Speech-Based Cognitive Impairment Detection via an Autoencoder with Contrastive Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	REDACT: A Systematically Controlled Multilingual Benchmark for Personal Information Detection	arxiv 2026-06-18	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.59	LaViSA: A Language and Vision Structural Ambiguity Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	MMD-SLAM: Structure-Enhanced Multi-Meta Gaussian Distribution-Guided Visual SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-18	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.59	A High-accuracy Event-based Underwater SLAM System	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Cosmological history after higher dimensional inflation	arxiv 2026-06-18	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.59	Shadow Completion in Celestial OPEs	arxiv 2026-06-18	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.59	Generating Function of single-centered Black Hole Index in CHL Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Leevoid go to the gym on the 21st of June 2026?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-20	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.59	Will TADC: The Last Act reach 50M YouTube views by July 15, 2026?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-20	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.59	France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-01-05	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.59	Spread: Senegal (-1.5)(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	2026/2027 UEFA Champions League winner [independent]	manifold 2026-06-22	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Paris Basketball vs. Monaco(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	On what days will I be productive?	manifold 2026-06-23	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-23	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-23	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	Cross-Architectural Mixture-of-Experts with Adaptive Soft Routing for Plant Leaf Disease Classification	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	BEV-Denoise: Learning Intrinsic Noise for Accurate Bird's-Eye-View Semantic Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Foundation Models for Epileptogenic Zone Identification in Drug-Resistant Epilepsy	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Deep Learning-Based Sign Language Recognition from Videos and Cross-Lingual Translation to Indian Vernaculars	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Differential Spectral Damping Gap Adaptive Regularization for Ill-Conditioned Kernel Methods	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Ultra-Peripheral Collisions as a Nuclear-Structure Interferometer with Interpretable Multitask Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-22	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	IndicGuard: A Multilingual Safety Guard Model and Dataset for Indic Languages	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.59	Self-Stigma Is Not a Monolith, but Generic Empathy Is: Persona-Conditioned LLM Support for People Who Use Drugs	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	Machine Translation and Post-Editing: Comparative Evaluation of Different MT Systems and Post-Editor Groups in Specialised Translation	arxiv 2026-06-22	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	A Reduced Order Model for Emergent Mechanics in Woven Systems	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Affine quantization of the dynamical Reissner--Nordström region	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	NLO Angular Impulse and Leading Singularities to all orders in spin for Kerr Black Holes	arxiv 2026-06-22	230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.59	Statistical Physics of Planar Carroll Systems	arxiv 2026-06-22	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.59	Statistical Physics of Planar Carroll Systems	arxiv 2026-06-22	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	FDA ANDA203823: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — LANNETT CO INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA204979: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ANI PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Will Cole Young win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.59	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Will Natasha Howard have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	Will Kenya get a chess international master within 1year?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	FLUX3D: High-Fidelity 3D Gaussian Generation with Diffusion-Aligned Sparse Representation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	IV-CoT: Implicit Visual Chain-of-Thought for Structure-Aware Text-to-Image Generation	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	IV-CoT: Implicit Visual Chain-of-Thought for Structure-Aware Text-to-Image Generation	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	Privacy-Preserving RAG via Multi-Agent Semantic Rewriting: Achieving Confidentiality Without Compromising Contextual Fidelity	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.59	Breaking Shortcut Learning for Cross-Trial EEG-Guided Target Speech Extraction via Two-Stage Training	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_023 Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stakes presentations using 'Dara AI' — a synthetic, agentic clone of the CEO that pressure-tests narratives and logic before human executive meetings. Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	95%
0.59	Predicting Poets' Origins from Verse: A Computational Analysis of Regional Linguistic Fingerprints in the Complete Tang Poems	arxiv 2026-06-23	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	RE4: Transformation-aware Imitation of Object Interactions Using Manipulation Modes	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	A Time-Reparameterized Cumulative Intensity Extrapolation Sampler for Discrete Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.59	RoPE-Aware Bit Allocation for KV-Cache Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-23	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Stochastic Expectation Maximization for Robust State-Space Radio Interferometric Imaging	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	DREAM: Dense Retrieval Embeddings via Autoregressive Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Prague Dependency Treebank -- Consolidated 2.0: Enriching a Complex Annotation Scheme	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Zeta-regularization and natural boundaries: Sums and products of integers and primes	arxiv 2026-06-23	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.59	Excitability of Gaussian states with VEVs	arxiv 2026-06-22	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	FDA ANDA208305: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — SUN PHARM INDUSTRIES	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Expresso-AI: Explainable Video-Based Deep Learning Models for Depression Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Heterogeneous and Adept Snapshot Distillation for 3D Semantic Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Efficient Analytic Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Modal Regression	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	A Framework for Directed Hypergraph Signal Processing via tensor t-SVD	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	A Framework for Directed Hypergraph Signal Processing via tensor t-SVD	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Learning Diachronic Representations of Ancient Greek Letterforms	arxiv 2026-06-23	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.59	ConSolv: Solvent-Conditional Machine Learning Implicit Solvent Potential	arxiv 2026-06-23	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Fault of Our Stars: Behavioral Drivers of Rating-Sentiment Incongruence	arxiv 2026-06-24	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.59	Fully Differentiable Neural Forced Alignment via Soft Dynamic Programming	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Towards Structuring an Arabic-English Machine-Readable Dictionary Using Parsing Expression Grammars	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.59	FDA ANDA209624: BOSUTINIB (BOSUTINIB MONOHYDRATE) — MSN	fda 2026-06-12	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Iran full airspace closure by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Will a commenter post a link to a video showing Micah Lasher doing a magic trick?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-25	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.59	A Latent ODE Approach to Spatiotemporal Modeling of Cine Cardiac MRI	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Explainable Ensemble-Based Machine Learning Models for Detecting the Presence of Cirrhosis in Hepatitis C Patients	arxiv 2026-06-25	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	A Multi-Fidelity Convolutional Autoencoder-Transfer Learning Framework for Guided-Wave-Based Damage Diagnosis Using Large Simulated and Limited Experimental Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Transformer-Based Classification of Bacterial Raman Spectra with LOOCV	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.59	Finding Stationary Points by Comparisons	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.59	Scoring Is Not Enough: Addressing Gaps in Utility-fairness Trade-offs for Ranking	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	EMA-FS: Accelerating GBDT Training via Gain-Informed Feature Screening	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	FlameVQA: A Physically-Grounded UAV Wildfire VQA Benchmark with Radiometric Thermal Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Ordinal Neural Collapse as a Representation Prior for Visual Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.59	FDA ANDA077454: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND IBUPROFEN (HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE) — ANI PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA077454: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND IBUPROFEN (HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE) — ANI PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.59	Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	FDA ANDA040545: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA040910: OXYCODONE AND ASPIRIN (ASPIRIN) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.59	Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	20%