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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	FDA ANDA216081: GADOBUTROL (GADOBUTROL) — HENGRUI PHARMA	fda 2026-05-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	facebookresearch/HolisticTraceAnalysis v0.5.0	github_release 2025-05-28	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	Spread: Pistons (-4.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.61	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? [Polymarket](market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-05-13	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.61	Trajectory-Agnostic Asteroid Detection in TESS with Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang	Space	33%
0.61	MetaColloc: Optimization-Free PDE Solving via Meta-Learned Basis Functions	arxiv 2026-05-12	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	MetaColloc: Optimization-Free PDE Solving via Meta-Learned Basis Functions	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Manifold Sampling via Entropy Maximization	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Probing Non-Equilibrium Grain Boundary Dynamics with XPCS and Domain-Adaptive Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.61	Crash Assessment via Mesh-Based Graph Neural Networks and Physics-Aware Attention	arxiv 2026-05-12	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	From Token to Token Pair: Efficient Prompt Compression for Large Language Models in Clinical Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	U-STS-LLM A Unified Spatio-Temporal Steered Large Language Model for Traffic Prediction and Imputation	arxiv 2026-05-12	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	Unlocking Compositional Generalization in Continual Few-Shot Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Dual-Temporal LSTM with Hybrid Attention for Airline Passenger Load Factor Forecasting: Integrating Intra-Flight and Inter-Flight Booking Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	A Controlled Counterexample to Strong Proxy-Based Explanations of OOD Performance: in a Fixed Pretraining-and-Probing Setup	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Controllable User Simulation	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	Will Trump Leave China on May 15?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 153(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-14	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 153(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-14	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	Will the global refined copper market record a deficit of 500,000+ tonnes for full-year 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-14	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	67%
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-14	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.61	How many people will be regularised in Spain in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-12	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will "Maybe I was too harsh on deep learning theory..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-11	247_012 The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	High-Rate Quantized Matrix Multiplication II	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.61	MILM: Large Language Models for Multimodal Irregular Time Series with Informative Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Polyhedral Instability Governs Regret in Online Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.61	Efficient Sensor Fusion for Gesture Recognition on Resource-Constrained Devices	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Efficient Sensor Fusion for Gesture Recognition on Resource-Constrained Devices	arxiv 2026-05-13	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	On the Limits of Latent Reuse in Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	MPINeuralODE: Multiple-Initial-Condition Physics-Informed Neural ODEs for Globally Consistent Dynamical System Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	IndicMedDialog: A Parallel Multi-Turn Medical Dialogue Dataset for Accessible Healthcare in Indic Languages	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Proximal-Based Generative Modeling for Bayesian Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-13	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	GAGPO: Generalized Advantage Grouped Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Coupling-Informed Transport Maps for Bayesian Filtering in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	LoREnc: Low-Rank Encryption for Securing Foundation Models and LoRA Adapters	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	FDA ANDA218558: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	How much additional mana will be printed by the 2x trader bonuses in 7 days? (total trader bonuses divided by 2)	manifold 2026-05-15	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.61	Will the Iran / US war resume before May 22nd?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-14	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.61	Sidus Space Inc. (SIDU) (CIK 0001879726)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.61	Logging Policy Design for Off-Policy Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Separating Intrinsic Ambiguity from Estimation Uncertainty in Deep Generative Models for Linear Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Second-Order Actor-Critic Methods for Discounted MDPs via Policy Hessian Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	PROCESS-2: A Benchmark Speech Corpus for Early Cognitive Impairment Detection	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	AIMing for Standardised Explainability Evaluation in GNNs: A Framework and Case Study on Graph Kernel Networks	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	ToMAToMP: Robust and Multi-Parameter Topological Clustering	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	ReMIA: a Powerful and Efficient Alternative to Membership Inference Attacks against Synthetic Data Generators	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.61	Mining Subscenario Refactoring Opportunities in Behaviour-Driven Software Test Suites: ML Classifiers and LLM-Judge Baselines	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.61	RxEval: A Prescription-Level Benchmark for Evaluating LLM Medication Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-14	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Large Dimensional Kernel Ridge Regression: Extending to Product Kernels	arxiv 2026-05-14	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.61	Enjoy Your Layer Normalization with the Computational Efficiency of RMSNorm	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Dynamic Latent Routing	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	To See is Not to Learn: Protecting Multimodal Data from Unauthorized Fine-Tuning of Large Vision-Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-14	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.61	ForcingDAS: Unified and Robust Data Assimilation via Diffusion Forcing	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Stochastic Matching via Local Sparsification	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	FDA NDA219531: SDAMLO (AMLODIPINE BESYLATE) — BRILLIAN PHARMA	fda 2026-05-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA063181: MINOCYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MINOCYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — WATSON LABS TEVA	fda 2026-05-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA BLA761381: OPDIVO QVANTIG (NIVOLUMAB) — BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-05-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Harris English win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	FDA ANDA212428: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — CHARTWELL RX	fda 2026-05-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will there be 100+ HackerNews stories posted in 24h?(market prob: 98%)	manifold 2026-05-17	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will SPY close above $750 on Monday, May 18, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will SPY close below $720 on Friday, May 29, 2026?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-17	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.61	LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Ebola pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-19	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.61	Robots reliably do my laundry by?	manifold 2026-05-19	239_023 AI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcy Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	41%
0.61	Will more than 25,000 games be released on Steam this year?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-19	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.61	Will more than 25,000 games be released on Steam this year?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-19	248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.61	Will BTC-USD close below $90,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-18	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	Vision-OPD: Learning to See Fine Details for Multimodal LLMs via On-Policy Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-18	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	GAMMA: Global Bit Allocation for Mixed-Precision Models under Arbitrary Budgets	arxiv 2026-05-18	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	When Fireflies Cluster; Enhancing Automatic Clustering via Centroid-Guided Firefly Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Beyond Square Roots: Explicit Memory-Efficient Factorization for Multi-Epoch Private Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Geometric Dictionary Learning of Dynamical Systems with Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	pyforce-1.0.0: Python Framework for data-driven model Order Reduction of multi-physiCs problEms	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Multi-site PPG: An In-the-Wild Physiological Dataset from Emerging Multi-site Wearables	arxiv 2026-05-18	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2025-09-22	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.61	What will (top 1% 2026 AMC 12A) + 10 * (top 5% 2027 AIME I) be?	manifold 2026-05-28	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	$10m prize for 100m record claimed in 2027(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-28	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.61	Will Kalshi be operational and legal in the US on January 1, 2030?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-27	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-26	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-25	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.61	HPO: Hysteretic Policy Optimization for Stable and Efficient Training under Sparse-Reward Regime	arxiv 2026-05-28	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Conformal Certification of Reasoning Trace Prefixes	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Domain-Specific Data Synthesis for LLMs via Minimal Sufficient Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	RAISE: RAG Design as an Architecture Search Problem	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Test Time Training for Supervised Causal Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	LaRA: Layer-wise Representation Analysis for Detecting Data Contamination in RL Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	HARP: Hadamard-Preconditioned Adaptive Rotation Processor for Extreme LLM Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	NaRA: Noise-Aware LoRA for Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning of Diffusion LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Personalized Turn-Level User Conversation Satisfaction Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Faithful Embeddings of Irregular and Asynchronous Data for Online Log-NCDEs	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Fisher-Preserving Guidance: Training-Free Manifold Constraints for Safe Diffusion Control	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Open World Autoencoding Drift Detection with Novel Class Recognition in Tabular Non-stationary Data Streams	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	MoSSP: A Momentum-Based Single-Loop Stochastic Penalty Method for Nonconvex Constrained DC-Regularized Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	Learning to Perturb Hidden Representations for Generalizable Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Gradient Perturbation: Learning to Perturb Gradients for Adaptive Training	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Attention as In-Context Empirical Bayes: A Two-Stage View via Particle Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	Learning to Feel Materials from Multisensory Tactile Data via Interpretable Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis)	Robotics	41%
0.61	3DVLA: Enhancing Vision-Language-Action Models via 3D Spatial and Instance Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	FDA ANDA211026: MACITENTAN (MACITENTAN) — SEASONS BIOTECH	fda 2026-05-19	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	How many unique viewers will this market end with?	manifold 2026-05-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	FDA ANDA216988: CLONAZEPAM (CLONAZEPAM) — RUBICON RESEARCH	fda 2026-05-21	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will my YouTube Channel have more than 15 subscribers at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-02	232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.61	Will Sydney Metro exceed 70,000,000 trips taken in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-30	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	Will ETH be more or less volatile than BTC this week?	manifold 2026-05-29	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Mitigating Perceptual Judgment Bias in Multimodal LLM-as-a-Judge via Perceptual Perturbation and Reward Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	FOAM: Frequency and Operator Error-Based Adaptive Damping Method for Reducing Staleness-Oriented Error for Shampoo	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.61	FOAM: Frequency and Operator Error-Based Adaptive Damping Method for Reducing Staleness-Oriented Error for Shampoo	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Quantitative Movement Testing: Measuring Patient Movements from a Single Smartphone Video	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Cross-modal linkage risk in clinical vision-language models	arxiv 2026-06-01	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Who Annotates in NLP? A Large-scale Assessment of Human Annotation Reporting between 2018 and 2025	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	Topological texture analysis of microscopy images of dynamic casein gelation and its relation to rheological properties	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	STaR-KV: Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Re-weighting for KV Cache Compression in GUI Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.61	EvoBrain: Continual Learning of EEG Foundation Models Across Heterogeneous BCI Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	Fair Finetuning Mitigates Distribution Inference Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-01	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	EvoPool: Evolutionary Programmatic Annotation for Label-Efficient Specialized Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	S-SPPO: Semantic-Calibrated Self-Play Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	ProtoAda: Prototype-Guided Adaptive Adapter Expansion and Geometric Consolidation for Multimodal Continual Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Measurement Geometry and Design for Trustworthy Generative Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	When Tabular Foundation Models Transfer Across Modalities: A Systematic Evaluation Across 95 Datasets, 7 Modalities, and Two Regimes	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	Site4Drug: Predicting Drug-Binding Target Sites with an AI Agent	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	A Note on Stability for Orthogonalized Matrix Momentum with Client Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Uncertainty-Calibrated Diffusion for Reliable 3D Molecular Graph Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_055 Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing) Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	RobustModelMaker: Coupling Bootstrap Stability Selection with Leakage-Safe Nested Cross-Validation for Scientific Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Flexible Online Representation Learning Based on Similarity Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Flexible Online Representation Learning Based on Similarity Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Near-Optimal Pure Machine Unlearning for Smooth Strongly Convex Losses	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	CEAR: Certified Ensemble Adversarial Robustness in DNNs	arxiv 2026-05-31	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	DECK: A Consistency x Confidence Taxonomy of LLM Hallucinations	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	CARTE: A Benchmark for Mapping Language Model Knowledge Across France	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_034 The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approximately 5 years — driven by sub-$1,000 offline tablets and AI tutors capable of lifting historically lagging demographics (e.g. New Mexico, Sub-Saharan Africa) into top-tier performanc... Joe Liemandt	Education	22%
0.61	FreqLite: A Lightweight Frequency-Decomposed Linear Model with Adaptive Reversible Normalization for Robust Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-31	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	LongAttnComp: Cross-Family Context Compression for Long-Context Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Connecting the Dots: Benchmarking Reflective Memory in Long-Horizon Dialogue	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	TECCI: Tricky Edits of Collected and Curated Images	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Towards Lightweight Reliability: Using Soft Prompts for Hallucination Mitigation in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-30	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.6	github_release 2020-09-18	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Will CDT RealOruro win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-03	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.61	FDA ANDA220143: ANDA220143 ((unspecified)) — HETERO LABS LIMITED	fda 2026-05-22	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.61	Best METR 80% Time Horizon before October 2026	manifold 2026-06-04	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.61	FDA ANDA081099: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — BARR	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	ToolChoiceConfusion: Causal Minimal Tool Filtering for Reliable LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	CLEAR: Cognition and Latent Evaluation for Adaptive Routing in End-to-End Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Where does Absolute Position come from in decoder-only Transformers?	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	TLA-Prover: Verifiable TLA+ Specification Synthesis via Preference-Optimized Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Learning Visual Spatial Planning from Symbolic State via Modality-Gap-Aware Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Better Literary Translation: A Multi-Aspect Data Generation and LLM Training Approach	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	QCFuse: Query-Aware Cache Fusion via Compressed View for Efficient RAG Serving	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Consistency Training Along the Transformer Stack	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Performance Evaluation of GraphCast for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting over Brazil	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	Reactive Flux Matching: Mechanism Discovery and Adaptive Sampling of Rare Events	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Trust-Aware Predictive Emissions Monitoring for Gas Turbine Fleets with Limited Labelled Data	arxiv 2026-06-04	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	Learning solution operators of PDEs with sparse approximation methods	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks for Counterfactual Outcome Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Domain-Adapted Small Language Models with Hybrid Post-Processing: Achieving Cost-Efficient, Low-Latency Multi-Label Structured Prediction via LoRA Fine-Tuning on Scarce Data	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	T-SAR-JEPA: Self-Supervised Temporal Anomaly Detection in SAR Amplitude Stacks via Latent Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	StableRCA: Robust Graph-Agnostic Mechanism-Level Root Cause Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Mitigating the Curse of Dimensionality in Uniform Convergence of Deep Neural Networks via Smooth Activations	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	GOTabPFN: From Feature Ordering to Compact Tokenization for Tabular Foundation Models on High-Dimensional Data	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	GOTabPFN: From Feature Ordering to Compact Tokenization for Tabular Foundation Models on High-Dimensional Data	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.61	Learning-Augmented Online Minimization with Dual Predictions	arxiv 2026-06-03	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	ProSPy: A Profiling-Driven SQL-Python Agentic Framework for Enterprise Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Can LLMs Be Constrained to the Past? Improving Knowledge Cutoff through Recall-Based Prompting	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Can LLMs Be Constrained to the Past? Improving Knowledge Cutoff through Recall-Based Prompting	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	ReasoningFlow: Discourse Structures for Understanding LLM Reasoning Traces	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_027 Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a '20-80 human split' — AI handles 80% of cognitive labor, humans handle 20%, driving recursive self-improvement timelines toward the Singularity; fundamental inversion from hum... Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.61	Boosting Self-Consistency with Ranking	arxiv 2026-06-03	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	CRAFT: Cost-aware Refinement And Front-aware Tuning of Prompts	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Waypoints Matter: A Systematic Study for Sampling-Based Trajectory Planning	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.61	RadiusFPS: Efficient Farthest Point Sampling on CPUs and GPUs via Spherical Voxel Pruning	arxiv 2026-06-04	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	A Novel Method with Encoder-Decoder for Cross-Sensor Adaptation in Surface Shape Sensing with Sparse Strain Sensors	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	WAM-Nav: Asymmetric Latent World-Action Modeling for Unified Visual Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Understanding deconfined quantum critical points from crystalline categorical Landau paradigm	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Dirichlet walls and the end of time	arxiv 2026-06-03	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.61	FDA NDA018569: FUROSEMIDE (FUROSEMIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-02	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	At the end of the next 30 days, starting from today (June 7 2026), how many blocks will be broken on mysterybox.art ?	manifold 2026-06-06	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.61	Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-07	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.61	Sparse Subspace-to-Expert Sharing for Task-Agnostic Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	PaperFlow: Profiling, Recommending, and Adapting Across Daily Paper Streams	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Mitosis Detection in the Wild: Multi-Tumor and Context-Aware Generalization in the MIDOG 2025 Challenge	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%