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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	FDA ANDA209036: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ABHAI LLC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Do Encoders Suffice? A Systematic Comparison of Encoder and Decoder Safety Judges for LLM Adversarial Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Do Encoders Suffice? A Systematic Comparison of Encoder and Decoder Safety Judges for LLM Adversarial Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	Spam and Sentiment Detection in Arabic Tweets Using MARBERT Model	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	C3-Bench: A Context-Aware Change Captioning Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Lightweight PCGAE-Net: Parallel CrossGate Attention and Bottleneck AutoEncoder for Efficient 5G Channel Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	TheoremGraph: Bridging Formal and Informal Mathematics	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	AeroCast: Probabilistic 3D Trajectory Prediction for Non-Cooperative Aerial Obstacles via Transformer-MDN Architecture	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Yuvion VL: A Multimodal Foundation Model for Adversarial Content and AI Safety	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Erased, but Not Gone: Output Forgetting Is Not True Forgetting	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	DFMU: Data-Frugal Machine Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Geometry-Anchored Transport Framework for Exemplar-Free Class-Incremental Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Variational Inference via Entropic Transport Descent	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Extreme Meta-Classification for Large-Scale Zero-Shot Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	MJEPA: A Simple and Scalable Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture for Audio-Visual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	What's in an Earth Embedding? An Explainability Analysis of Location Encoders	arxiv 2026-06-23	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.61	A Single Stepsize Suffices for Unprojected Linear TD(0): Simultaneous Robust and Fast Rates via Polyak--Ruppert Averaging	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	CKM-Driven Communication-Aware UAV Intelligent Trajectory Optimization for Urban Inspection	arxiv 2026-06-23	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	LLM Performance on a Real, Double-Marked GCSE Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-23	241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt	Education	51%
0.61	Dustin: Draft-Augmented Sparse Verification for Efficient Long-Context Generation with Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Digital Twin-Driven Adaptive Sim-to-Real Alignment via Reinforcement Learning for Vibration-Based Bearing Health Monitoring Under Data Scarcity	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	When Certainty Is an Artifact: Keyword Lexicon Blindness and the (Mis)Measurement of Rhetorical Stance	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	MedGuards: Multi-Agent System for Reliable Medical Error Detection and Correction	arxiv 2026-06-24	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Probing in the Wild: A Case Study of Self-Supervised Speech Representations on Mandarin Sub-dialects with Unsupervised Articulatory Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-24	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	ForceBand: Learning Forceful Manipulation with sEMG	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	A Sensorised Lattice Footplate for a Semi-Active Prosthetic Foot	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	TacVerse: A Multi-Sensor Dataset and Benchmark for Cross-Sensor Vision-Based Tactile Perception	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	StairMaster: Learning to Conquer Risky Hollow Stairs for Agile Quadrupedal Robots	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Stage-Aware and Roughness-Constrained Diffusion Policy for Multi-Stage Robotic Polishing	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	GRAFT: Graph-Based Affordance Transfer via Part Correspondence	arxiv 2026-06-23	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	RigPI: Dynamic Parameter Identification of Rigid Body via VLM-Seeded Differentiable Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Toward Low-Latency Vision-Language Models with Doubly-Correct Predictions in Egocentric Visual Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	SurveilNav: Collaborative Object Goal Navigation with Robot and Surveillance System	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	FDA ANDA211690: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — SANALUZ	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.61	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	37%
0.61	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-04-29	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.61	Will "Protecting Cognitive Integrity: Our internal ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-26	AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk	AI	13%
0.61	What will be the total prize in the third Manifold Prize Drawing?	manifold 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-23	CMQ_045 Agentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, potentially driving total global server CPU market well beyond $100B. Morgan Stanley	Semis	43%
0.61	Will Build a Bear outperform the SP500 for the year of 2027?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-23	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	202604300928049995	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.61	usa wyniki gigantow big tech pobily oczekiwania lecz wzbudzily niepokoje o skale wydatkow na ai,288224.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_006 Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom Eric Schmidt	AI	79%
0.61	google gives openai 20 billion reasons to worry 2000752324	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_006 OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction. Sam Altman	AI/Finance	64%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	big us tech stocks swing 214147047.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	232_035 Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.61	big us tech stocks swing 214147047.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	meta stock drops company ramps 233826186.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	us lawmakers warn china top space rival race moon intensifies	gdelt 2026-04-30	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	nyt connections today answers hints 30 april 2026	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.61	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.61	Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.61	Red vs. Blue button except prediction market	manifold 2026-04-30	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.61	Red vs. Blue button except prediction market	manifold 2026-04-30	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Will US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-04-30	235_022 US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. Peter Diamandis	Energy	53%
0.61	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-07-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Spread: Pistons (-4.5)(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Bitcoin $84K in May?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Google I/O 2026 Prop Bets!	manifold 2026-05-01	246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.61	Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.61	Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Ganymede by EOY 2046?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-05-02	232_047 Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. Elon Musk	Space	30%
0.61	How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?	manifold 2026-05-02	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.61	What award will I get at the 2026 AMM?	manifold 2026-05-03	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.61	Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.61	Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 76%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.61	Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	@100Anonymous vs @Jack1 Masters May 2026	manifold 2026-05-04	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	Spread: Pistons (-2.5)(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-05-05	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	FDA ANDA209956: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — TEVA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-04-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA205071: MILNACIPRAN HYDROCHLORIDE (MILNACIPRAN HYDROCHLORIDE) — BRECKENRIDGE	fda 2026-04-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA NDA219293: DANZITEN (NILOTINIB TARTRATE) — AZURITY	fda 2026-04-14	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA205571: CARBAMAZEPINE (CARBAMAZEPINE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-04-29	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.11.0	github_release 2025-12-11	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.8.0	github_release 2025-11-13	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.3.1	github_release 2023-01-12	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.3	github_release 2022-08-25	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.1	github_release 2022-06-13	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.1.2	github_release 2022-01-28	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.0.1	github_release 2021-09-30	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.4.0	github_release 2026-03-27	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.21.0-rc1	github_release 2026-03-02	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.21.0-rc0	github_release 2026-02-09	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v1.11.0	github_release 2022-03-10	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61	will [redacted] occur as of saturday(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-06	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.61	US Strategic Petroleum Reserve - lowest value in 2026	manifold 2026-05-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	HeadQ: Model-Visible Distortion and Score-Space Correction for KV-Cache Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.61	APEX: Large-scale Multi-task Aesthetic-Informed Popularity Prediction for AI-Generated Music	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	ReasonAudio: A Benchmark for Evaluating Reasoning Beyond Matching in Text-Audio Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	Neuron-Anchored Rule Extraction for Large Language Models via Contrastive Hierarchical Ablation	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	When Audio-Language Models Fail to Leverage Multimodal Context for Dysarthric Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.61	Enhanced 3D Brain Tumor Segmentation Using Assorted Precision Training	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Nora: Normalized Orthogonal Row Alignment for Scalable Matrix Optimizer	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Uni-OPD: Unifying On-Policy Distillation with a Dual-Perspective Recipe	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Bandits attack function optimization	arxiv 2026-05-05	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Bandits attack function optimization	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	FIBER: A Differentially Private Optimizer with Filter-Aware Innovation Bias Correction	arxiv 2026-05-05	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Two Calls, Two Moments, and the Vote-Accuracy Curve of Repeated LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-05-05	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	Distributed Learning with Adversarial Gradient Perturbations	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Moral Sensitivity in LLMs: A Tiered Evaluation of Contextual Bias via Behavioral Profiling and Mechanistic Interpretability	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Moral Sensitivity in LLMs: A Tiered Evaluation of Contextual Bias via Behavioral Profiling and Mechanistic Interpretability	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.61	Adaptive Negative Scheduling for Graph Contrastive Learning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	A Closed-Form Persistence-Landmark Pipeline for Certified Point-Cloud and Graph Classification	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Adaptive Interpolation-Synthesis for Motion In-Betweening on Keyframe-Based Animation	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Random-Effects Algorithm for Random Objects in Metric Spaces	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	CARD: Coarse-to-fine Autoregressive Modeling with Radix-based Decomposition for Transferable Free Energy Estimation	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	TRACED: In vivo imaging of extracellular intrinsic diffusivity, tortuosity, cell size distribution and cell density in human glioma patients	arxiv 2026-05-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	TRACED: In vivo imaging of extracellular intrinsic diffusivity, tortuosity, cell size distribution and cell density in human glioma patients	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.61	Evaluating Tabular Representation Learning for Network Intrusion Detection	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	Benchmarking Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning of Large Language Models for Low-Resource Tajik Text Generation with the Tajik Web Corpus	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	A Comparison of Traditional Machine Learning Algorithms and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models for Email Sentiment Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	A multilingual hallucination benchmark: MultiWikiQHalluA	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	Reliability-Oriented Multilingual Orthopedic Diagnosis: A Domain-Adaptive Modeling and a Conceptual Validation Framework	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	LiDAR Teach, Radar Repeat: Robust Cross-Modal Navigation in Degenerate and Varying Environments	arxiv 2026-05-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Parking Assistance for Trailer-Truck Transport Vehicles Using Sensor Fusion and Motion Planning	arxiv 2026-05-04	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.61	Orchestrating Spatial Semantics via a Zone-Graph Paradigm for Intricate Indoor Scene Generation	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Higher-Order Flexible Configurations of Planar Parallel Manipulators Constructed by Averaging	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Parameterized Families of Toric Code Phase: $em$-duality family and higher-order anyon pumping	arxiv 2026-05-05	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	FDA ANDA210111: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — BRECKENRIDGE	fda 2026-04-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Spread: Thunder (-14.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	What award will I get at the 2026 AMM?	manifold 2026-05-07	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will anyone get me to post 🌀 in the comments on this market [Convince the Machine #9](market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-06	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.61	Will SPY be above 720.65 on market close May 8th?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	SCOUT: Active Information Foraging for Long-Text Understanding with Decoupled Epistemic States	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	SCOUT: Active Information Foraging for Long-Text Understanding with Decoupled Epistemic States	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Hierarchical Visual Agent: Managing Contexts in Joint Image-Text Space for Advanced Chart Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	facebookresearch/balance 0.9.0	github_release 2023-05-22	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.61	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.32	github_release 2025-08-13	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28.post2	github_release 2024-10-22	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.61	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28.post1	github_release 2024-09-13	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.61	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28.post1	github_release 2024-09-13	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-08	234_040 Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in America Elon Musk	Real Estate	32%
0.61	Concept-Based Abductive and Contrastive Explanations for Behaviors of Vision Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	On the Security of Research Artifacts	arxiv 2026-05-07	231_017 A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Patch-Effect Graph Kernels for LLM Interpretability	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	ORTHOBO: Orthogonal Bayesian Hyperparameter Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Mind the Gap? A Distributional Comparison of Real and Synthetic Priors for Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Band Together: Untargeted Adversarial Training with Multimodal Coordination against Evasion-based Promotion Attacks	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Joint Consistency: A Unified Test-Time Aggregation Framework via Energy Minimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Towards Annotation-Free Validation of MLLMs: A Vision-Language Logical Consistency Metric	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	CrossCult-KIBench: A Benchmark for Cross-Cultural Knowledge Insertion in MLLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Quantizing With Randomized Hadamard Transforms: Efficient Heuristic Now Proven	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	PREFER: Personalized Review Summarization with Online Preference Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.61	How Many Iterations to Jailbreak? Dynamic Budget Allocation for Multi-Turn LLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	On the Safety of Graph Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	SNAPO: Smooth Neural Adjoint Policy Optimization for Optimal Control via Differentiable Simulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.61	The Role of Node Features in Graph Pooling	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Playing the network backward: A Game Theoretic Attribution Framework	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Who and What? Using Linguistic Features and Annotator Characteristics to Analyze Annotation Variation	arxiv 2026-05-07	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.61	RVPO: Risk-Sensitive Alignment via Variance Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	FinRAG-12B: A Production-Validated Recipe for Grounded Question Answering in Banking	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Career-Aware Resume Tailoring via Multi-Source Retrieval-Augmented Generation with Provenance Tracking: A Case Study	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Contact-Free Grasp Stability Prediction with In-Hand Time-of-Flight Sensors	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.61	Dr-PoGO: Direct Radar Pose-Graph Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	ReflectDrive-2: Reinforcement-Learning-Aligned Self-Editing for Discrete Diffusion Driving	arxiv 2026-05-06	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Autonomous Laparoscope Control through Unified Mechanics-Based Representation of Multimodal Intraoperative Information	arxiv 2026-05-06	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	FDA ANDA202420: CALCIUM ACETATE (CALCIUM ACETATE) — CHARTWELL MOLECULAR	fda 2026-05-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will I use Hermes Agent for more than a week?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-09	241_013 Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects Eric Schmidt	AI	45%
0.61	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61	Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	price of silver at the end of may?	manifold 2026-05-11	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	facebookresearch/spdl v0.2.0	github_release 2026-01-07	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.61	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.61	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 21, 2026?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-05-12	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%