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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	SUSY meets pseudo-Hermiticity	arxiv 2026-06-17	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	SUSY meets pseudo-Hermiticity	arxiv 2026-06-17	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Will Max Clark win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.57	Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-19	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.57	Do you like 62% odds?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-18	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.57	Do you like 62% odds?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-18	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.57	Structuring and Tokenizing Distributed User Interest Context for Generative Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	Exploring Feature Extraction Technique Parameters for Acoustic Gunshot Classification	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	The Token Is a Group Element: On Lie-Algebra Attention over Matrix Lie Groups	arxiv 2026-06-18	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	ReNikud: Audio-Supervised Hebrew Grapheme-to-Phoneme Conversion	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.57	Evolving Dark Energy Is Vacuum Energy After All	arxiv 2026-06-18	230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Reheating as a variational probe of cosmological observables	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	14%
0.57	Partial-wave unitarity and long-range interactions	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	FDA BLA761149: ENSPRYNG (SATRALIZUMAB) — GENENTECH	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2025-12-19	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.57	Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	FDA BLA761262: SKYRIZI (RISANKIZUMAB-RZAA) — ABBVIE INC	fda 2026-06-26	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA NDA021130: ZYVOX (LINEZOLID) — PFIZER	fda 2026-06-09	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.57	Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.57	Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	How many psets does x do?	manifold 2026-06-21	242_046 Custom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvements Dave Blundin	AI	43%
0.57	Free Lottery (dark matter & banana)(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-21	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.57	Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.57	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will silver hit $60/ oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) (CIK 0001507605)	edgar_8k 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Nneka Ogwumike have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	US military draft authorized in 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-03-12	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.57	Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will I get the Manifold Hat (Merch) By EOY?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-06-19	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	SCRUB-FL: Sanitizing and Cleansing Representations via Unlearning of Backdoors	arxiv 2026-06-21	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.57	Deep Learning-Based Sign Language Recognition from Videos and Cross-Lingual Translation to Indian Vernaculars	arxiv 2026-06-21	AI_034 The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approximately 5 years — driven by sub-$1,000 offline tablets and AI tutors capable of lifting historically lagging demographics (e.g. New Mexico, Sub-Saharan Africa) into top-tier performanc... Joe Liemandt	Education	22%
0.57	Robust Diffusion Models via Divergence-Induced Weighted Denoising	arxiv 2026-06-21	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Kiwano: A Cutting-Edge Open-Source Toolkit for Speaker Verification	arxiv 2026-06-21	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	ROMEVA: Geometry-Preserving Vocabulary Expansion for Roman Urdu Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	NLO Angular Impulse and Leading Singularities to all orders in spin for Kerr Black Holes	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Spacetime torsion fixes the mass and spin of gravitationally produced dark matter	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.57	Dynamics of ($Z_N$) Domain Walls in SU(N) Gauge Theories	arxiv 2026-06-21	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	FDA ANDA088744: MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA ANDA204234: DOXYCYCLINE (DOXYCYCLINE) — LUPIN	fda 2026-06-12	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.57	Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-30	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.57	Will the ICC issue an arrest warrant against a sitting world leader before 2030?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-24	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Will control of the House and Senate be called by midnight (PT) on election night in the 2026 US Midterms?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-24	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.57	Mind the Heads: Topological Representation Alignment for Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Deciphering Fingerprints of 3D Molecular Surfaces for Accurate Epitope Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	AutoSpecNER: A Fine-Grained Named Entity Recognition Dataset for Vehicle Specification Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.57	Black Hole Ringdown Nonlinearities in the Large-D Limit	arxiv 2026-06-22	248_005 V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. Video Narration (SpaceX)	Space	79%
0.57	FDA ANDA205629: HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — OSMOTICA PHARM US	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA ANDA205634: MORPHINE SULFATE (MORPHINE SULFATE) — SUN PHARM INDUSTRIES	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	FDA ANDA040826: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — SUN PHARM INDS LTD	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will McCartney Kessler be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.57	Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	QUANTUM CORP /DE/ (QMCO) (CIK 0000709283)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE) (CIK 0001720424)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.57	HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE) (CIK 0001720424)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.57	HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE) (CIK 0001720424)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.57	HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE) (CIK 0001720424)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.57	MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) (CIK 0001507605)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Gitlab Inc. (GTLB) (CIK 0001653482)	edgar_8k 2026-06-24	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	50%
0.57	Fuzzy Quantification over OWL Ontologies and Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Curvature-Guided Mixing for MLLM Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Tracing Target Answers in Poisoned Retrieval Corpora via Token Influence Attribution	arxiv 2026-06-24	231_017 A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	BitNet Text Embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.57	Quantum thermodynamics of ergotopy for a relativistic battery as a witness to Unruh-Hawking thermality in curved (A)dS spacetimes	arxiv 2026-06-24	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.57	FDA ANDA075929: BUTALBITAL, ACETAMINOPHEN, CAFFEINE AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — PHARMOBEDIENT	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA091443: OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — TEVA	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA ANDA091443: OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — TEVA	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA040446: MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — SUN PHARM INDS INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA ANDA215584: MORPHINE SULFATE (MORPHINE SULFATE) — INGENUS PHARMS NJ	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	Will Arnold Allen fight Alexander Volkanovski next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	241_028 US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	48%
0.57	Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Spread: Uruguay (-2.5)(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Iran full airspace closure by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.57	June 26th World Cup prop bets	manifold 2026-06-26	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will there be another earthquake rating 7.0 or above in Japan within the next 7 days?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-26	240_004 A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	36%
0.57	How many seats will our model's most-likely Senate map be wrong on?	manifold 2026-06-26	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	21%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? [Polymarket](market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-25	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.57	SamaVaani: Auditing and Debiasing Multilingual Clinical ASR for Indian Languages	arxiv 2026-06-25	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Computational Analysis of Heart Rate Variability in Healthy Adults	arxiv 2026-06-25	238_022 From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	KARLA: Knowledge-base Augmented Retrieval for Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.57	Parametric Generalized Adaptive Moment Features (PG-AMF) for Bearing Fault Diagnosis and Machine Health Monitoring	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	State-Specific Respiratory Signatures for Affective and Stress Recognition: Interpretable Respiratory Markers, Autocorrelation Lags, and Compact CNN Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	MinGram: A Minimalist Unigram Tokenizer with High Compression and Competitive Morphological Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-25	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	From Vajrayana Tara to Bengali Baul: A Computational Study of Lexical Transmission Across Buddhist, Shakta, and Vaishnava Traditions in Bengal	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.57	Massive Cosmological Correlators from Flat Space: a Laplace-Space Approach	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Weak-Strong Resurgence Duality	arxiv 2026-06-25	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	14%
0.57	Images of Braneworld black holes with radiatively inefficient accretion flows	arxiv 2026-06-24	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Lionel Messi: 1+ goals(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-02-19	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 0.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Bristow Group Inc. (VTOL) (CIK 0001525221)	edgar_8k 2026-06-26	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.57	FDA ANDA205321: PREGABALIN (PREGABALIN) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-06-23	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	Will Marin Čilić be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.57	Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5)(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	How will the Brazil v Japan Round of 32 match end?	manifold 2026-06-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.57	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Will the food messages come back from the f.?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-06-29	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.57	US Gas Price on August 1?	manifold 2026-06-28	S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027	compute_scale	60%
0.57	Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (OPTT) (CIK 0001378140)	edgar_8k 2026-06-29	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.57	HALLIBURTON CO (HAL) (CIK 0000045012)	edgar_8k 2026-06-29	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Spread: New York Liberty (-1.5)(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5)(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	FFAvatar: Feed-Forward 4D Head Avatar Reconstruction from Sparse Portrait Images	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.57	Physically-Constrained Harmonic Separation for Robust Heart and Respiratory Rate Estimation from Wrist Photoplethysmography	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Query-Aware Spreading Activation for Multi-Hop Retrieval over Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.57	Rethinking Generative Reconstruction Attacks against Graph Neural Network Models	arxiv 2026-06-29	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	SonoCLIP: Mask-Guided Region-Aware Vision-Language Pretraining for Fetal Ultrasound Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	Gradient boosting with vector-valued leafs	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Travel-Oriented Reasoning Large Language Model via Domain-Specific Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-28	240_014 Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months Sam Altman	AI	50%
0.57	DistilledGemma: Balanced Efficiency-Accuracy for Person-Place Relation Extraction from Multilingual Historical Articles	arxiv 2026-06-28	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.57	Understanding Color Confinement through Quantum Reference Frames and Relational Observables	arxiv 2026-06-29	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	Searching for the $G(3900)$ via the $K^- p \to D_s^- Λ_c^+ G(3900)^0$ reaction	arxiv 2026-06-28	242_008 Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed Dave Blundin	Energy	27%
0.57	Bounded Chaos in a Ghost-Coupled Hamiltonian System	arxiv 2026-06-28	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	facebookresearch/ProgramBench v1.2.3	github_release 2026-06-29	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	27%
0.57	Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Austin Reaves play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.57	Milan: Completed Match: Elmer Moeller vs Pierluigi Basile(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Nintendo deliver the Ocarina of Time remake in 2026 as promised?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-07-01	229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Will Nintendo deliver the Ocarina of Time remake in 2026 as promised?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-07-01	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Will Nintendo deliver the Ocarina of Time remake in 2026 as promised?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-07-01	239_013 Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every year Elon Musk	Robotics	37%
0.57	How many problems written by me will appear on the 2027 ELMO?	manifold 2026-06-30	235_023 Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. Eric Schmidt	Energy	48%
0.57	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-07-01	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE) (CIK 0001720424)	edgar_8k 2026-07-01	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.57	HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE) (CIK 0001720424)	edgar_8k 2026-07-01	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.57	WIDER-FAIR: An Annotated Version of the WIDER-FACE Dataset for Fairness Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	TabPATE: Differentially Private Tabular In-Context Learning Without Public Data	arxiv 2026-06-30	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.57	FDA ANDA212173: ACYCLOVIR (ACYCLOVIR) — YILING	fda 2026-06-24	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.57	Will a player representing Switzerland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.57	Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Spread: Croatia (-1.5)(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%