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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.63	Taming the Entropy Cliff: Variable Codebook Size Quantization for Autoregressive Visual Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	Entropy-Regularized Adjoint Matching for Offline RL	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	AdaGamma: State-Dependent Discounting for Temporal Adaptation in Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Normalized Architectures are Natively 4-Bit	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.63	DBMSolver: A Training-free Diffusion Bridge Sampler for High-Quality Image-to-Image Translation	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency	arxiv 2026-05-07	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.63	CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	SOPE: Stabilizing Off-Policy Evaluation for Online RL with Prior Data	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	LiVeAction: a Lightweight, Versatile, and Asymmetric Neural Codec Design for Real-time Operation	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.63	FedAttr: Towards Privacy-preserving Client-Level Attribution in Federated LLM Fine-tuning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Hitting Time Isomorphism for Multi-Stage Planning with Foundation Policies	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	FREPix: Frequency-Heterogeneous Flow Matching for Pixel-Space Image Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.63	Reconstruction or Semantics? What Makes a Latent Space Useful for Robotic World Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Independent Learning of Nash Equilibria in Partially Observable Markov Potential Games with Decoupled Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	End-to-End Identifiable and Consistent Recurrent Switching Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Perceive, Route and Modulate: Dynamic Pattern Recalibration for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	AffineLens: Capturing the Continuous Piecewise Affine Functions of Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Geometry-Aware Simplicial Message Passing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Quantifying the Statistical Effect of Rubric Modifications on Human-Autorater Agreement	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Financial Document Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Beyond BLEU: A Semantic Evaluation Method for Code Translation	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.63	Beyond BLEU: A Semantic Evaluation Method for Code Translation	arxiv 2026-05-06	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.63	Every Step Counts: Step-Level Credit Assignment for Tool-Integrated Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	TriRelVLA: Triadic Relational Structure for Generalizable Embodied Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	From Reach to Insert: Tactile-Augmented Precision Assembly under Sub-Millimeter Tolerances	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	ReflectDrive-2: Reinforcement-Learning-Aligned Self-Editing for Discrete Diffusion Driving	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	ReflectDrive-2: Reinforcement-Learning-Aligned Self-Editing for Discrete Diffusion Driving	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Machine Learning Approaches to Building Quantum Circuits for Sets of Matrices	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.63	Lattice fermion formulation via Physics-Informed Neural Networks: Ginsparg-Wilson relation and Overlap fermions	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.63	Neutrino Flavor Transformation in Collapsing Supermassive Objects	arxiv 2026-05-05	240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-09	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.63	FDA ANDA205519: ATORVASTATIN CALCIUM (ATORVASTATIN CALCIUM) — SCIEGEN PHARMS	fda 2026-04-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Will any US brokerage support a third-party-operated user identity by the end of 2027?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-11	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.63	Will Xi Jingping visit US before 2027?(market prob: 86%)	manifold 2026-05-11	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	14%
0.63	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.101.0	github_release 2026-05-11	235_043 Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. Salim Ismail	Defense	36%
0.63	Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-12	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will Senate Banking hold a crypto market-structure markup by May 20, 2026?(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-05-10	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.63	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.4.0	github_release 2024-02-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Keeping Score: Efficiency Improvements in Neural Likelihood Surrogate Training via Score-Augmented Loss Functions	arxiv 2026-05-12	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	Decomposing the Generalization Gap in PROTAC Activity Prediction: Variance Attribution and the Inter-Laboratory Ceiling	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.63	A Controlled Counterexample to Strong Proxy-Based Explanations of OOD Performance: in a Fixed Pretraining-and-Probing Setup	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	huggingface/transformers v5.8.1	github_release 2026-05-13	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Force-Aware Neural Tangent Kernels for Scalable and Robust Active Learning of MLIPs	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	The WidthWall: A Strict Expressivity Hierarchy for Hypergraph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Three-Stage Learning Unlocks Strong Performance in Simple Models for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-13	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.63	Beyond Perplexity: A Geometric and Spectral Study of Low-Rank Pre-Training	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Mixed neural posterior estimation for simulators with discrete and continuous parameters	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.63	HLS-Seek: QoR-Aware Code Generation for High-Level Synthesis via Proxy Comparative Reward Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Strategic PAC Learnability via Geometric Definability	arxiv 2026-05-13	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	Physics Guided Generative Optimization for Trotter Suzuki Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Unified generalization analysis for physics informed neural networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	Unified generalization analysis for physics informed neural networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.63	Do Heavy Tails Help Diffusion? On the Subtle Trade-off Between Initialization and Training	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.63	Understanding Generalization through Decision Pattern Shift	arxiv 2026-05-13	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.63	Amortized Neural Clustering of Time Series based on Statistical Features	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-10-15	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.63	Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.63	Will Apple's WWDC26 Keynote transcript mention MCP or Model Context Protocol?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-05-14	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.63	Forgetting That Sticks: Quantization-Permanent Unlearning via Circuit Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Croissant Baker: Metadata Generation for Discoverable, Governable, and Reusable ML Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-14	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	A Mutual Information Lower Bound for Multimodal Regression Active Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Critic-Driven Voronoi-Quantization for Distilling Deep RL Policies to Explainable Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.63	Critic-Driven Voronoi-Quantization for Distilling Deep RL Policies to Explainable Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Fast Adversarial Attacks with Gradient Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	A Non-Monotone Preconditioned Trust-Region Method for Neural Network Training	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Exploitation of Hidden Context in Dynamic Movement Forecasting: A Neural Network Journey from Recurrent to Graph Neural Networks and General Purpose Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Selective Safety Steering via Value-Filtered Decoding	arxiv 2026-05-14	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	AQKA: Active Quantum Kernel Acquisition Under a Shot Budget	arxiv 2026-05-14	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	RxEval: A Prescription-Level Benchmark for Evaluating LLM Medication Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Guided Diffusion Sampling for Precipitation Forecast Interventions	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Paraphrasing Attack Resilience of Various AI-Generated Text Detection Methods	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	Finite Sample Bounds for Learning with Score Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	ProtoMedAgent: Multimodal Clinical Interpretability via Privacy-Aware Agentic Workflows	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.63	FDA ANDA220421: ANDA220421 ((unspecified)) — HETERO LABS LIMITED, VEMAGAL	fda 2026-05-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Manifold successfully predict the next pandemic at least 2 weeks in advance?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-18	229_007 Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. Brett Adcock	Robotics	48%
0.63	Will I be in a serious, potentially-long-term relationship by the end of 2026?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-18	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.63	Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 19?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.63	X-Energy, Inc. (XE) (CIK 0002088896)	edgar_8k 2026-05-19	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.63	Can Adaptive Gradient Methods Converge under Heavy-Tailed Noise? A Case Study of AdaGrad	arxiv 2026-05-18	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.63	Learning Quantifiable Visual Explanations Without Ground-Truth	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Statistical Limits and Efficient Algorithms for Differentially Private Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	CATA: Continual Machine Unlearning via Conflict-Averse Task Arithmetic	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	XCTFormer: Leveraging Cross-Channel and Cross-Time Dependencies for Enhanced Time-Series Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-18	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.63	Heterogeneous Tasks Offloading in Vehicular Edge Computing: A Federated Meta Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.63	QLIF-CAST: Quantum Leaky-Integrate-and-Fire for Time-Series Weather Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.63	A Unified Framework for Structured Flow Modeling: From Continuous Fields to Data-Driven Representations	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	LogRouter: Adaptive Two-Level LLM Routing for Log Question Answering in Big Data Systems	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	DAD4TS: Data-Augmentation-Oriented Diffusion Model for Time-Series Forecasting with Small-Scale Data	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	Training Infinitely Deep and Wide Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-17	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	FDA ANDA089534: SPIRONOLACTONE AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — SUN PHARM INDUSTRIES	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.63	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.63	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.63	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-24	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.63	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.63	Will the Internet Computer Protocol token/coin (ICP) reach $3.50 by end of June 30, 2026?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-29	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.63	Will "Implications Of Predicting The Next Token" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-27	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.63	Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-26	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.63	Demystifying Data Organization for Enhanced LLM Training	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	PokerSkill: LLMs Can Play Expert-Level Poker without Training or Solvers	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	REPOT: Recoverable Program-of-Thought via Checkpoint Repair	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Moment-KV: Momentum-Based Decode-Time KV Cache Compression for Long Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	ESPO: Early-Stopping Proximal Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	LFQ: Logit-aware Final-block Quantization for Boosting the Generation Quality of Low-Bit Quantized LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	DLM-SWAI: Steering Diffusion Language Models Before They Unmask	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	PhoneWorld: Scaling Phone-Use Agent Environments	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Digitally enriching a screening population for pancreatic cancer using routine blood-based measures and clinical histories	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.63	Faithful Embeddings of Irregular and Asynchronous Data for Online Log-NCDEs	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Unveiling the Visual Counting Bottleneck in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	RL2ML: Finite-Rollout Surrogate Objectives from Reinforcement Learning to Maximum Likelihood	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Striding Across Reynolds Numbers: Representation Geometry in Neural PDE Generalisation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Striding Across Reynolds Numbers: Representation Geometry in Neural PDE Generalisation	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	OVA-IB: One vs All Information Bottleneck for Multi-Modal Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Bastion: Budget-Aware Speculative Decoding with Tree-structured Block Diffusion Drafting	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	When Does Persona Prompting Actually Help? A Retrieval and Metric Analysis of Expert Role Injection in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Mixing Vector Model for Copolymer Inference via Mixed Integer Linear Programming	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Causal Label Recovery in Payment Networks	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	KLAS: Using Similarity to Stitch Neural Networks for Improved Accuracy-Efficiency Tradeoffs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	KLAS: Using Similarity to Stitch Neural Networks for Improved Accuracy-Efficiency Tradeoffs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	CCS: Clinical Consensus Selection for Radiology Report Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.63	UniSteer: Text-Guided Flow Matching in Activation Space for Versatile LLM Steering	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	User-Aware Active Knowledge Acquisition for Emotional Support Dialogue	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Leveraging Routing Dynamics in Mixture-of-Experts Models for Efficient Language Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Draft-OPD: On-Policy Distillation for Speculative Draft Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	DynSess: Dynamic Session-Level Evaluation and Optimization Framework for Role-Playing Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	FDA NDA210251: BIKTARVY (BICTEGRAVIR SODIUM) — GILEAD SCIENCES INC	fda 2026-05-21	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA BLA761468: HEPCLUDEX (BULEVIRTIDE-GMOD) — GILEAD SCIENCES INC	fda 2026-05-22	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-06-01	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.63	[snigus] Will I convince Destiny that managing AI-risk should be in top 2 policy priority of his?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-31	242_032 AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.63	FDA ANDA203708: OLANZAPINE (OLANZAPINE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-26	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	FDA ANDA203708: OLANZAPINE (OLANZAPINE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-26	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA ANDA220499: ANDA220499 ((unspecified)) — ALEMBIC PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED	fda 2026-05-13	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.63	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.63	Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Bitcoin $78K in June?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Bitcoin $80K in June?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.63	Learning When to Translate for Multilingual Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Learning When to Translate for Multilingual Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Initialization is Half the Battle: Generating Diverse Images from a Guidance Potential Posterior	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.63	An Abstract Worlds Semantic Framework for Belief Change Operators	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.63	Community-Aware Assessment of Social Textual Engagement and Resonance: A Human-Centric Perspective on User-Generated Content Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Structure-Guided Adaptive Propagation for Protein-Protein Interaction Site Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.63	HAIM: Human-AI Music Datasets for AI Music Production Tracking Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	RoleCDE:Benchmarking and Mitigating Role-Alignment Trade-offs in Role-Playing Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	TabPrep: Closing the Feature Engineering Gap in Tabular Benchmarks	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.63	Parameter-efficient Dual-encoder Architecture with Differentiable Choquet Integral Fusion for Underwater Acoustic Classification	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	ShaplEIG: Bayesian Experimental Design for Shapley Value Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	EEG-FuseFormer: A Transformer-Driven Feature Fusion Framework for Seizure Onset Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.63	HMPO: Hybrid Median-length Policy Optimization for Chain-of-Thought Compression	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	OmniOPD: Logit-Free On-Policy Distillation via Speculative Verification	arxiv 2026-05-31	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	OmniOPD: Logit-Free On-Policy Distillation via Speculative Verification	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Neural Network Compression by Approximate Differential Equivalence	arxiv 2026-05-31	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	ResMerge: Residual-based Spectral Merging of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	CultureForest: Understanding and Evaluating Cultural Norm Grounded Reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	SkillAdaptor: Self-Adapting Skills for LLM Agents from Trajectories	arxiv 2026-05-31	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	When Is 0.1% Enough? Analyzing the Combined Effects of Dimensionality Reduction and Quantization on Text Embedding Compression	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.63	Will the June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 50.0?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-02	SEM_017 TSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm. TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	59%
0.63	Will the June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 50.0?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will US headline CPI for May 2026 come in at 3.9% or higher year-over-year?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-02	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.63	Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 4?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 4?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	Manifold Markets says I have 140 Traders right now. By June 7th I will have 60 more.(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-06-03	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.63	X-Energy, Inc. (XE) (CIK 0002088896)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027	macro_recession	30%
0.63	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	231_040 Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	38%
0.63	What close prices will the S&P500 hit in June 2026?	manifold 2026-06-05	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.63	Regret Minimization with Adaptive Opponents in Repeated Games	arxiv 2026-06-04	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	F3-Tokenizer: Taming Audio Autoencoder Latents for Understanding and Generation	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.63	MPCoT: Reward-Guided Multi-Path Latent Reasoning for Test-Time Scalable Vision-Language-Action	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	ATT-CR: Adaptive Triangular Transformer for Cloud Removal	arxiv 2026-06-04	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	To Be Multimodal or Not to Be: Query-Adaptive Audio-Visual Person Retrieval via Active Modality Detection	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%