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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.56 | Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Flyers vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.56 | Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Francavilla: Andrea Guerrieri vs Chun-Hsin Tseng(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.56 | Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Hurricanes vs. Flyers(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims)(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: PlayTime vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Golden Knights vs. Ducks(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Thunder vs. Lakers(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.56 | New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-19 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Michael Zheng(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: PlayTime vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 242_025 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks Dave Blundin | Real Estate | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 0.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 242_025 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks Dave Blundin | Real Estate | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-03-01 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-9.5)(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.56 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | CYB_010 Agentic commerce will radically redistribute — not grow — the global commerce stack, severely affecting traditional software platforms, global payment processors, digital advertising networks, and physical logistics providers. Consumer delegation of pr... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 70% | |
| 0.56 | T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will David Njoku play for Los Angeles Chargers in 2026-27?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-12-22 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Knicks vs. Spurs(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Joventut vs. Saski Baskonia(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Spurs vs. Knicks(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Athletics vs. Houston Astros(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Israel closes its airspace by June 10?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.56 | T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Santiago De La Fuente(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.56 | Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Santiago De La Fuente(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 242_058 Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will George Pickens play for Cleveland Browns in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will George Pickens play for New Orleans Saints in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 24% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 85%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 231_040 Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 38% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.56 | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 230_027 We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% |