Validations Queue
75,032 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 60 of 97, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
Pending (total)
75,032
Reviewed
13
Filtered
19,236
page 60 / 97
Showing on page
200
Filters
URL params control source + min-similarity threshold
Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-01-07 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Sabres vs. Bruins(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | COD_BIO_003 Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Netanyahu out by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.58 | Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Eliakim Coulibaly(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.58 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | 2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.58 | 2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | LoL: Forsaken vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Santos: Miguel Tobon vs Facundo Mena(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-29 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Iga Swiatek(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-02-12 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Thunder (-11.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.58 | Will El Ahly SC win on 2026-05-20?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.58 | Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 33% | |
| 0.58 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Thunder (-6.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Bengaluru 3: Karan Singh vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-10-22 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-03-19 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Rob Thomson win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Rob Thomson win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Gloucestershire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Teichmann (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 87% | |
| 0.58 | Will David Njoku play for Philadelphia Eagles in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will David Njoku play for Los Angeles Chargers in 2026-27?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Connecticut Sun win the 2026 WNBA Finals?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Will Connecticut Sun win the 2026 WNBA Finals?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Arnaldi(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-11 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-07-24 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-8.5)(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-7.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-3.5)(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.58 | Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Knicks (-2.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | ITF Decatur: Ena Koike vs Ana Grubor(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C.(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | |
| 0.58 | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.58 | United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Kevin Roy win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 69%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Türkiye leading at halftime?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Türkiye leading at halftime?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.58 | Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.58 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Donna Vekic win the 2026 Women’s US Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Ghana (-2.5)(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Carlos Correa lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% |