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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	FDA ANDA217281: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — NOVUGEN	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	FDA ANDA212773: IMATINIB MESYLATE (IMATINIB MESYLATE) — EUGIA PHARMA	fda 2026-04-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA078582: LEVETIRACETAM (LEVETIRACETAM) — STRIDES PHARMA	fda 2026-04-21	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	FDA ANDA215243: RAMELTEON (RAMELTEON) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-06-04	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	FDA NDA020310: NIZORAL ANTI-DANDRUFF (KETOCONAZOLE) — KRAMER	fda 2026-04-30	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.3.1	github_release 2023-01-12	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.3.1	github_release 2023-01-12	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.59	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.3	github_release 2022-08-25	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.59	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.3	github_release 2022-08-25	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.59	huggingface/transformers v5.6.0	github_release 2026-04-22	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.18.1	github_release 2025-03-11	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.14.0-rc0	github_release 2023-08-17	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	pytorch/pytorch v2.7.0	github_release 2025-04-23	237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Spread: Knicks (-10.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will @grins or @megahertz fakesolve a TSTST problem with the Method of Moving Points?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-06	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Who will send the most mana to @traders	manifold 2026-05-06	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	mdok-style at SemEval-2026 Task 10: Finetuning LLMs for Conspiracy Detection	arxiv 2026-05-04	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	ViewSAM: Learning View-aware Cross-modal Semantics for Weakly Supervised Cross-view Referring Multi-Object Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	A Closed-Form Adaptive-Landmark Kernel for Certified Point-Cloud and Graph Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Conditional Diffusion Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Multimodal Learning on Low-Quality Data with Conformal Predictive Self-Calibration	arxiv 2026-05-05	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.59	Nora: Normalized Orthogonal Row Alignment for Scalable Matrix Optimizer	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Tempered Guided Diffusion	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Intrinsic effective sample size for manifold-valued Markov chain Monte Carlo via kernel discrepancy	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.59	CNNs for Vis-NIR Chemometrics: From Contradiction to Conditional Design	arxiv 2026-05-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Gradient Boosted Risk Scores	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Physics-Informed Neural Learning for State Reconstruction and Parameter Identification in Coupled Greenhouse Climate Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	From prompting to evidence-based translation: A RAG+prompt system for Japanese-Chinese translation and its pedagogical potential	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	Shadow-Loom: Causal Reasoning over Graphical World Model of Narratives	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.59	Leveraging Argument Structure to Predict Content Hatefulness	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.59	Fight Poison with Poison: Enhancing Robustness in Few-shot Machine-Generated Text Detection with Adversarial Training	arxiv 2026-05-04	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.59	Temporally Consistent Object 6D Pose Estimation for Robot Control	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.59	The weak gravity conjecture in perturbative strings	arxiv 2026-05-05	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.59	Albertian Channel Memory in Black-Hole Evaporation	arxiv 2026-05-04	232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.59	FDA BLA761451: SAPHNELO (ANIFROLIMAB-FNIA) — ASTRAZENECA AB	fda 2026-04-24	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	FDA ANDA090348: ZIPRASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (ZIPRASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — CHARTWELL RX	fda 2026-04-24	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-07?(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-10	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30? [Polymarket](market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-07	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	Measuring Psychological States Through Semantic Projection: A Theory-Driven Approach to Language-Based Assessment	arxiv 2026-05-06	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.59	Measuring Psychological States Through Semantic Projection: A Theory-Driven Approach to Language-Based Assessment	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	FAAST: Forward-Only Associative Learning via Closed-Form Fast Weights for Test-Time Supervised Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.59	GEM: Graph-Enhanced Mixture-of-Experts with ReAct Agents for Dialogue State Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.3	github_release 2022-12-08	COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.2	github_release 2022-06-15	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.14.1	github_release 2026-03-06	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.10.0	github_release 2025-01-31	COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack	Space	33%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.5.0	github_release 2019-05-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	facebookresearch/balance 0.17.0	github_release 2026-03-17	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	facebookresearch/balance 0.7.0	github_release 2023-04-10	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	facebookresearch/balance 0.5.0	github_release 2023-03-08	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.59	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government)	Space	46%
0.59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31st 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 90%)	manifold 2026-05-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31st 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 90%)	manifold 2026-05-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	If we survive the singularity, will the average guy be able to get a catgirl harem with almost zero effort?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-08	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp or more at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-08	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.59	Multimodal Deep Generative Model for Semi-Supervised Learning under Class Imbalance	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Event-Causal RAG: A Retrieval-Augmented Generation Framework for Long Video Reasoning in Complex Scenarios	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Logic-Regularized Verifier Elicits Reasoning from LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.59	CLAD: A Clustered Label-Agnostic Federated Learning Framework for Joint Anomaly Detection and Attack Classification	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Estimate Level Adjustment For Inference With Proxies Under Random Distribution Shifts	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.59	When Does $\ell_2$-Boosting Overfit Benignly? High-Dimensional Risk Asymptotics and the $\ell_1$ Implicit Bias	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.59	ConquerNet: Convolution-Smoothed Quantile ReLU Neural Networks with Minimax Guarantees	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.59	The Role of Node Features in Graph Pooling	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	Expressivity of Bi-Lipschitz Normalizing Flows: A Score-Based Diffusion Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Robust $\mathcal{H}_\infty$ Controller Design For INDI-Controlled Quadrotor Using Online Parameter Identification	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	When Does Gene Regulatory Network Inference Break? A Controlled Diagnostic Study of Causal and Correlational Methods on Single-Cell Data	arxiv 2026-05-06	234_003 Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.59	FDA ANDA074544: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-05-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2025-05-02	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	On what days will I go to the bathroom more than 5 times a day	manifold 2026-05-08	236_019 Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer Andrew Yang	Robotics	44%
0.59	Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	Will El Masry SC win on 2026-05-20?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-05-11	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will SF Prop A, June 2026, pass?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-11	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.59	Valorant: Joblife vs WIP Esports (BO5) - VCL France: Revolution Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will CR Brasil vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in May 2026?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-05-12	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Will the Mechanize.work team have to hire bodyguards/bomb scanners by EOY2031?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-12	247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently Dave Blundin	AI	41%
0.59	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	247_039 Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right Dave Blundin	Crypto	54%
0.59	FDA ANDA075327: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — ANI PHARMS	fda 2026-05-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	facebookresearch/HolisticTraceAnalysis v0.5.0	github_release 2025-05-28	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.59	Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.59	Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.59	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2025-12-01	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.59	Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-22	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Kash Patel still be FBI Director On 1st July 2026(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-13	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	247_039 Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right Dave Blundin	Crypto	54%
0.59	Missingness-MDPs: Bridging the Theory of Missing Data and POMDPs	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.59	TriBand-BEV: Real-Time LiDAR-Only 3D Pedestrian Detection via Height-Aware BEV and High-Resolution Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	STRUM: A Spectral Transcription and Rhythm Understanding Model for End-to-End Generation of Playable Rhythm-Game Charts	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Bin Latent Transformer (BiLT): A shift-invariant autoencoder for calibration-free spectral unmixing of turbid media	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Learning Feature Encoder with Synthetic Anomalies for Weakly Supervised Graph Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	Generative climate downscaling enables high-resolution compound risk assessment by preserving multivariate dependencies	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	ArcVQ-VAE: A Spherical Vector Quantization Framework with ArcCosine Additive Margin	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	Local Inverse Geometry Can Be Amortized	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	CRePE: Curved Ray Expectation Positional Encoding for Unified-Camera-Controlled Video Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	meta-llama/llama-api-python v0.6.0	github_release 2025-12-18	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	How many Prime ministers will the UK have before 2028?	manifold 2026-05-15	ROB_015 The 2025-2028 period is defined by massive automation/job displacement equivalent to 25 years of Industrial Revolution economic upheaval compressed into 3 traumatic years — followed by the dawn of the 'Agentic Era' in 2027 where autonomous AI agents pa... Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	38%
0.59	Will SPY close above $750 on Friday, May 15, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-15	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.59	BCI-Based Assessment of Ocular Response Time Using Dynamic Time Warping Leveraging an RDWT-Driven Deep Neural Framework	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Nearest-Neighbor Radii under Dependent Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-14	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.59	DT-Transformer: A Foundation Model for Disease Trajectory Prediction on a Real-world Health System	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	FDA BLA761352: BIZENGRI (ZENOCUTUZUMAB-ZBCO) — MERUS N.V.	fda 2026-05-08	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	FDA BLA761304: VYVGART HYTRULO (EFGARTIGIMOD ALFA AND HYALURONIDASE-QVFC) — ARGENX BV	fda 2026-05-08	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.59	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.0	github_release 2020-09-03	242_051 Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.59	Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Semi-Finals	manifold 2026-05-17	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2025-07-11	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.59	Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	On what days will I go to the bathroom more than 5 times a day	manifold 2026-05-18	236_019 Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer Andrew Yang	Robotics	44%
0.59	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-05-18	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Will MrBeast become a billionaire before age 35?(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-05-18	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.59	What award will I get at AMM 2026?	manifold 2026-05-18	AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley	AI	42%
0.59	Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Vision-OPD: Learning to See Fine Details for Multimodal LLMs via On-Policy Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-18	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	Beyond Morphology: Quantifying the Diagnostic Power of Color Features in Cancer Classification	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Subject-Specific Analysis of Self-Initiated Attention Shifts from EEG with Controlled Internal and External Attention Conditions	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Wasserstein bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models via the Föllmer process	arxiv 2026-05-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	SAS: Semantic-aware Sampling for Generative Dataset Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Universal Adversarial Triggers	arxiv 2026-05-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	A Unified Framework for Data-Free One-Step Sampling via Wasserstein Gradient Flows	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Is Complex Training Necessary for Long-Tailed OOD Detection? A Re-think from Feature Geometry	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Spread: Thunder (-3.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.59	Will David Njoku play for Indianapolis Colts in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.59	Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	What will happen as a result of the Delaney Hall protests?	manifold 2026-05-30	230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will New Glenn 7x2 ever fly again?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-05-29	232_046 SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. Elon Musk	Space	32%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of August? [Polymarket](market prob: 56%)	manifold 2026-05-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket](market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will I comment on this market?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-28	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.59	Will Project Hail Mary finish the year as the highest rated 2026 cinematic release on Letterboxd?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-28	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-05-25	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Who is the best human ever to exist (revised edition)	manifold 2026-05-25	AI_035 In a world where superintelligent AI can perform all economically valuable, scientific, and creative tasks, humanity faces profound existential questions regarding its 'meaning of life' — potentially leaving humans without a primary teleological purpos... Nick Bostrom	Other	37%
0.59	Disbursements from Trump Anti-Weaponization Fund exceed 1 billion dollars before dissolution?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-24	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.59	MIRA: Mid-training Rubric Anchoring for Source-Aware Data Selection	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	CRITIC-R1: Learning Structured Critics for Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.59	Data filtering methods for training language models	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	The Sample Complexity of Multiclass and Sparse Contextual Bandits	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Predicting Causal Effects from Natural Language Queries using Structured Representations	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	ParaTool: Shifting Tool Representations from Context to Parameters	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.59	Xetrieval: Mechanistically Explaining Dense Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Privacy-Enhanced Zero-Order Federated Learning via xMK-CKKS over Wireless Channels	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.59	Robust Frequency-Calibrated Virtual EEG Channel Generation from Four Frontal Electrodes for Wearable EEG Augmentation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Robust Frequency-Calibrated Virtual EEG Channel Generation from Four Frontal Electrodes for Wearable EEG Augmentation	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.59	Uncertainty-driven 3D Gaussian Splatting Active Mapping via Anisotropic Visibility Field	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	FDA ANDA077615: DIVALPROEX SODIUM (DIVALPROEX SODIUM) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	facebookresearch/map-anything v1.1.2	github_release 2026-05-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%