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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 205.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 205.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	How many members will Reform UK have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	LLMs understand language [Convince the Machine #4](market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-03	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-03	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.59	What will I get at IMO 2026?	manifold 2026-05-03	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	232_059 Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	34%
0.59	Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.59	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.59	Will isaak freeman become a nobel laureate?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.59	Will MIT accept anyone from their 2026 waitlist?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-03	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.59	Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will my friend Aryan make ARML tb(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-05	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.59	EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) (CIK 0000034088)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	FDA ANDA217281: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — NOVUGEN	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	FDA ANDA212414: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — HETERO LABS LTD V	fda 2026-04-27	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	FDA NDA219293: DANZITEN (NILOTINIB TARTRATE) — AZURITY	fda 2026-04-14	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	FDA ANDA220264: VERICIGUAT (VERICIGUAT) — CHANGZHOU PHARMACEUTICAL FACTORY	fda 2026-04-08	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	openai/openai-python v2.8.1	github_release 2025-11-17	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.59	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.2.3	github_release 2025-09-29	237_019 Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.14.0	github_release 2023-09-26	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	figure out the code - Insider trading and bluffing	manifold 2026-05-06	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.59	Will abhishaike mahajan ever win the nobel prize?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.59	Revisiting Graph-Tokenizing Large Language Models: A Systematic Evaluation of Graph Token Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-05	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	GeoDecider: A Coarse-to-Fine Agentic Workflow for Explainable Lithology Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	MedStruct-S: A Benchmark for Key Discovery, Key-Conditioned QA and Semi-Structured Extraction from OCR Clinical Reports	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Compress Then Adapt? No, Do It Together via Task-aware Union of Subspaces	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	mdok-style at SemEval-2026 Task 9: Finetuning LLMs for Multilingual Polarization Detection	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.59	The 2026 ACII Dyadic Conversations (DaiKon) Workshop & Challenge	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.59	Memory-Efficient Continual Learning with CLIP Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	Donor-Aware scRNA-seq Benchmarks for IBD Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Sparse Memory Finetuning as a Low-Forgetting Alternative to LoRA and Full Finetuning	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.59	Beyond Activation Alignment: The Geometry of Neural Sensitivity	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Attribution-Guided Masking for Robust Cross-Domain Sentiment Classification	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.59	Physics-Informed Neural Learning for State Reconstruction and Parameter Identification in Coupled Greenhouse Climate Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_021 AI data centers are the 'steel mills of the 21st century' — humanity will miss near-term climate-change mitigation goals, with the bet that a sufficiently capable AI later solves the climate crisis retroactively. Eric Schmidt	Energy	47%
0.59	A Paradigm for Interpreting Metrics and Identifying Critical Errors in Automatic Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.59	From prompting to evidence-based translation: A RAG+prompt system for Japanese-Chinese translation and its pedagogical potential	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.59	CLaC at SemEval-2026 Task 6: Response Clarity Detection in Political Discourse	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Tensegrity crutches with compliance from a pre-stressed self-tensile module improve ground reaction force profiles, speed, effort, comfort, and perceived stability	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Natural Gradient Bayesian Filtering: Geometry-Aware Filter for Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Entangling gates for the SU(N) anyons	arxiv 2026-05-05	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.59	Preparing High-Fidelity Thermofield Double States	arxiv 2026-05-04	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Comment on `On computing quantum waves exactly from classical action'	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Pair creation via Amplitude-Modulated Periodic and Quasiperiodic Pulse Sequences	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	Separability from Multipartite Measures	arxiv 2026-05-03	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.59	FDA ANDA215759: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — BIOCON PHARMA	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	FDA ANDA211559: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-04-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA211579: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — LUPIN	fda 2026-04-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA NDA217180: JAKAFI XR (RUXOLITINIB PHOSPHATE) — INCYTE CORPORATION	fda 2026-05-01	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.59	facebookresearch/map-anything v1.0.1	github_release 2026-01-18	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	Will Trump visit China by May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.59	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	What will happen related to the Hantavirus in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	What will be the Opening Weekend Domestic Gross of 'Mortal Kombat II' (2026)?	manifold 2026-05-07	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	Beyond Semantics: An Evidential Reasoning-Aware Multi-View Learning Framework for Trustworthy Mental Health Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-06	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Uncertainty-Aware Exploratory Direct Preference Optimization for Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	StoryAlign: Evaluating and Training Reward Models for Story Generation	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Harnessing Linguistic Dissimilarity for Language Generalization on Unseen Low-Resource Varieties	arxiv 2026-05-06	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	GEM: Graph-Enhanced Mixture-of-Experts with ReAct Agents for Dialogue State Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	FDA BLA761349: COSENTYX (SECUKINUMAB) — NOVARTIS PHARMS CORP	fda 2026-04-17	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.2	github_release 2025-12-19	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.2	github_release 2025-12-19	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.2	github_release 2025-12-19	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.5.1	github_release 2019-05-30	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.5.1	github_release 2019-05-30	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.59	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.31.post1	github_release 2025-07-08	S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026	robotaxi_deployment	40%
0.59	Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	27%
0.59	If we survive the singularity, will the average guy be able to get a catgirl harem with almost zero effort?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-08	230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	41%
0.59	Who will become president first?	manifold 2026-05-07	236_002 UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	42%
0.59	From Token Lists to Graph Motifs: Weisfeiler-Lehman Analysis of Sparse Autoencoder Features	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	CredibleDFGO: Differentiable Factor Graph Optimization with Credibility Supervision	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Quantum Kernels for Audio Deepfake Detection Using Spectrogram Patch Features	arxiv 2026-05-07	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	iPhoneBlur: A Difficulty-Stratified Benchmark for Consumer Device Motion Deblurring	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_001 Single operators utilizing low-cost hardware (e.g., $600 Mac Minis) will be able to replicate the output of entire enterprise teams, drastically reducing the friction of multi-million-dollar software development — leading to total dissolution of middle... Alex Finn	Labor/Jobs	48%
0.59	Beyond Uniform Credit Assignment: Selective Eligibility Traces for RLVR	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	Efficient Techniques for Data Reconstruction, with Finite-Width Recovery Guarantees	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Dynamic Controlled Variables Based Dynamic Self-Optimizing Control	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Federated Cross-Client Subgraph Pattern Detection	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.59	FRInGe: Distribution-Space Integrated Gradients with Fisher--Rao Geometry	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	A Flow Matching Algorithm for Many-Shot Adaptation to Unseen Distributions	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	ConquerNet: Convolution-Smoothed Quantile ReLU Neural Networks with Minimax Guarantees	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Trade-off Functions for DP-SGD with Subsampling based on Random Shuffling: Tight Upper and Lower Bounds	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.59	When Brain Networks Travel: Learning Beyond Site	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	TabCF: Distributional Control Function Estimation with Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Sharper Guarantees for Misspecified Kernelized Bandit Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Who and What? Using Linguistic Features and Annotator Characteristics to Analyze Annotation Variation	arxiv 2026-05-07	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.59	Quantifying the Statistical Effect of Rubric Modifications on Human-Autorater Agreement	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.59	Uncovering Entity Identity Confusion in Multimodal Knowledge Editing	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.59	Uncovering Entity Identity Confusion in Multimodal Knowledge Editing	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	RVPO: Risk-Sensitive Alignment via Variance Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.59	When2Speak: A Dataset for Temporal Participation and Turn-Taking in Multi-Party Conversations for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Tightly-Coupled Estimation and Guidance for Robust Low-Thrust Rendezvous via Adaptive Homotopy	arxiv 2026-05-06	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.59	Pro-Tensor Network	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.59	Exact solutions, trajectories and radiation patterns in the classical relativistic Störmer problem	arxiv 2026-05-06	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.59	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	FLUOR CORP (FLR) (CIK 0001124198)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.59	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.59	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 217.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will OMIE Spain 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed €60/MWh?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-04	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	price of silver at the end of may?	manifold 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.9	github_release 2025-03-05	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will CR Brasil vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will AC Goianiense vs. São Bernardo FC end in a draw?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. /DE/ (LHX) (CIK 0000202058)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.8	github_release 2025-04-09	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.5	github_release 2024-09-26	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.2	github_release 2024-06-14	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.0	github_release 2024-03-21	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.59	Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.59	Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.59	Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-22	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Can anyone get talkie-1930 to describe Chomskian recursive syntax?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-13	247_012 The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) (CIK 0001970622)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SPC_018 Five North America-linked miners — MP Materials, Almonty Industries, Freeport-McMoRan, Alcoa, Teck Resources — are critical dependencies for the emerging space hardware supply chain: copper (regenerative cooling channels, Raptor/BE-4 pressure scaling),... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	65%
0.59	USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) (CIK 0001970622)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SPC_018 Five North America-linked miners — MP Materials, Almonty Industries, Freeport-McMoRan, Alcoa, Teck Resources — are critical dependencies for the emerging space hardware supply chain: copper (regenerative cooling channels, Raptor/BE-4 pressure scaling),... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	65%
0.59	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.59	KAN-CL: Per-Knot Importance Regularization for Continual Learning with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	Missingness-MDPs: Bridging the Theory of Missing Data and POMDPs	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	Sobolev Regularized MMD Gradient Flow	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Constrained Stochastic Spectral Preconditioning Converges for Nonconvex Objectives	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Sharpen Your Flow: Sharpness-Aware Sampling for Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-05-12	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Taming Extreme Tokens: Covariance-Aware GRPO with Gaussian-Kernel Advantage Reweighting	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Generative climate downscaling enables high-resolution compound risk assessment by preserving multivariate dependencies	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.59	Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.59	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community	AI	40%
0.59	Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	If we automate every FIFA World Cup market and resolution, how many traders will @ManifoldSports have by the end?	manifold 2026-05-13	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.59	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.59	Fast and effective algorithms for fair clustering at scale	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.59	DisAgg: Distributed Aggregators for Efficient Secure Aggregation in Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	ArcVQ-VAE: A Spherical Vector Quantization Framework with ArcCosine Additive Margin	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Pretraining Language Models with Subword Regularization: An Empirical Study of BPE Dropout in Low-Resource NLP	arxiv 2026-05-13	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	LIFT: Last-Mile Fine-Tuning for Table Explicitation	arxiv 2026-05-13	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	Support-Conditioned Flow Matching Is Kernel Smoothing	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Proximal-Based Generative Modeling for Bayesian Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Coupling-Informed Transport Maps for Bayesian Filtering in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-05-13	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation with Pre-training	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Coreset-Induced Conditional Velocity Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	CRePE: Curved Ray Expectation Positional Encoding for Unified-Camera-Controlled Video Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	IV-ICL: Bounding Causal Effects with Instrumental Variables via In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.59	FDA ANDA212336: ANDA212336 ((unspecified)) — DR REDDYS LABS LTD	fda 2026-05-07	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	Will Delhi Capitals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Jimmy Lai released by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Haotong Li win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.59	Globalstar, Inc. (GSAT) (CIK 0001366868)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE) (CIK 0001923891)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	S_COMPUTE_100GW_2030 Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030	compute_scale	20%
0.59	BCI-Based Assessment of Ocular Response Time Using Dynamic Time Warping Leveraging an RDWT-Driven Deep Neural Framework	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	IsoNet: Spatially-aware audio-visual target speech extraction in complex acoustic environments	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Deep Image Segmentation via Discriminant Feature Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Deep Image Segmentation via Discriminant Feature Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Beyond Binary: Reframing GUI Critique as Continuous Semantic Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.59	ICED: Concept-level Machine Unlearning via Interpretable Concept Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	To See is Not to Learn: Protecting Multimodal Data from Unauthorized Fine-Tuning of Large Vision-Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.59	Artificial Intelligence-Assistant Cardiotocography: Unified Model for Signal Reconstruction, Fetal Heart Rate Analysis, and Variability Assessment	arxiv 2026-05-14	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.59	To discretize continually: Mean shift interacting particle systems for Bayesian inference	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-16	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.59	FDA ANDA216537: CARBIDOPA AND LEVODOPA (CARBIDOPA) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	facebookresearch/sound-spaces v0.1.2	github_release 2021-06-22	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	52%
0.59	facebookresearch/sound-spaces v0.1.0	github_release 2021-01-23	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.59	facebookresearch/hydra v1.3.0	github_release 2022-12-08	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%