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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.58	IMPACTeen: Intentions, Manipulation, Persuasion, Annotations, and Consequences in Teen Communication Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	A Perception vs. Distortion Perspective on Score-Based Generative Channel Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.58	Koshur Diacritizer: A Byte-Level Sequence-to-Sequence Model for Kashmiri Diacritic Restoration	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Analytic Torsion and Spectral Gap Capture Persistent-Laplacian Performance	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Privacy from Symmetry: Orthogonally Equivariant Transformers for LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.58	Privacy from Symmetry: Orthogonally Equivariant Transformers for LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.58	Taylor-Calibrate: Principled Initialization for Hybrid Linear Attention Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-15	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Robust Neural Tucker Factorization with Bias Correction and Adaptive Initialization	arxiv 2026-06-15	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Decomposing one-class support vector machine into an ensemble of one-data support vector machines	arxiv 2026-06-14	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	The O(4)-breaking bubble	arxiv 2026-06-14	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	FDA ANDA209286: DIVALPROEX SODIUM (DIVALPROEX SODIUM) — LUPIN	fda 2026-06-11	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA BLA761119: VYEPTI (EPTINEZUMAB-JJMR) — Lundbeck Seattle BioPharmaceuticals, Inc.	fda 2026-06-05	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Does Starship flight 150 happen before New Glenn 15?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-17	232_046 SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. Elon Musk	Space	32%
0.58	SkillMoV: Mixture-of-View Routing with Prototype-Conditioned Gating for Unified Multi-View Proficiency Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	Feynman Kac Reweighted Schrödinger Bridge Matching for Surface-Based Tau PET Harmonization	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.58	Graph Neural Networks for Semi-Supervised Image Classification with Multi-Feature Aggregation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	The free boundary problem in general relativity	arxiv 2026-06-16	234_038 Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity Alex Wissner-Gross	Real Estate	35%
0.58	A Lindbladian for holographic Brownian motion	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Probing the QCD Phase Structure with Dileptons from SIS to LHC Energies	arxiv 2026-06-16	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.58	Hamiltonian formalism for Bose excitations in a plasma with a non-Abelian interaction: plasmon bremsstrahlung	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.58	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Julio Rodríguez lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.58	Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Spread: Mexico (-2.5)(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) (CIK 0001674101)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.58	NextDecade Corp (NEXT) (CIK 0001612720)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.58	RankGraph-2: Lifecycle Co-Design for Billion-Node Graph Learning in Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	INDEQS: Informed Neural controlled Differential EQuationS	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.58	Wasserstein Policy Learning for Distributional Outcomes	arxiv 2026-06-17	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.58	Approximate Structured Diffusion for Sequence Labelling	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis	AI	54%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis	AI	54%
0.58	Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.58	Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	2026 FIFA World Cup: Will there be exactly 6 or 7 knockout matches ending 3–0?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-19	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.58	Will Ralsei Transition by the end of Deltarune?	manifold 2026-06-18	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	HilDA: Hierarchical Distillation with Diffusion for Advancing Self-Supervised LiDAR Pre-trainin	arxiv 2026-06-18	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.58	Latent Confounded Causal Discovery via Lie Bracket Geometry	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Adversarial Bandit Optimization with Globally Bounded Perturbations to Convex Losses	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.58	Optimal Ansatz-free Hamiltonian Learning In Situ	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	TIDY: Thermal Infrared Image Denoising via Wavelet Domain Entropy and Directional Stripe Index	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	Space-time duality approach to (inhomogeneous) integrable quenches	arxiv 2026-06-18	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Moduli Stabilisation for ADD and the Dark Dimension Scenario	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	Bootstrapping Pion Form Factors at Large $N$	arxiv 2026-06-17	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.58	Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.58	Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2025-12-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	FDA NDA208434: ALECENSA (ALECTINIB HYDROCHLORIDE) — HOFFMANN-LA ROCHE	fda 2026-06-11	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.58	Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Will Ronald Acuña Jr. hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Ronald Acuña Jr. hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Jeremy Peña have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Oneil Cruz have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt	Education	37%
0.58	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Spread: Croatia (-1.5)(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.58	ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) (CIK 0001680062)	edgar_8k 2026-06-22	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.58	Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Will Nneka Ogwumike have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Paris Basketball vs. Monaco(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	It is more likely that Islam is true than Christianity [Convince the Machine #18](market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-23	248_027 Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. Dave Blundin	Other	39%
0.58	It is more likely that the Moon is made of Parmesan cheese than Gouda cheese [Convince the Machine #17](market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-06-23	229_036 Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. Dave Blundin	Space	47%
0.58	Against Proxy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-22	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.58	UnBias-Plus: Detect, Explain, and Rewrite Bias	arxiv 2026-06-22	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	SteerVTE: Seamless Video Text Editing with Style and Glyph Control	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	A Spectral Theory of Normalized Corrected GNN Propagation	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Patient-Aware Contrastive Learning Preserves Per-Patient Structure in RR-Interval Representations	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	FairBED: A Bayesian Experimental Design Approach to Gathering Fairer Data	arxiv 2026-06-22	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	FairBED: A Bayesian Experimental Design Approach to Gathering Fairer Data	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.58	DT-GOL: Dual-Track Geometric Online Learning in Nonstationary Environment with Label Delay	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.58	DT-GOL: Dual-Track Geometric Online Learning in Nonstationary Environment with Label Delay	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	LangMAP: A Language-Adaptive Approach to Tokenization	arxiv 2026-06-22	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.58	From Speech to Text Corpora: Evaluating ASR-Based Data Acquisition for Low-Resource Fongbe and Hausa	arxiv 2026-06-20	AI_034 The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approximately 5 years — driven by sub-$1,000 offline tablets and AI tutors capable of lifting historically lagging demographics (e.g. New Mexico, Sub-Saharan Africa) into top-tier performanc... Joe Liemandt	Education	22%
0.58	Flow6D: Discrete-to-Continuous Flow Matching for Efficient and Accurate Category-Level 6D Pose Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	Geometric and Statistical Thermo Field Dynamics in de Sitter Spacetime	arxiv 2026-06-22	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Dark matter from the quadratic spinor Lagrangian I: Geometric mass for a gravitationally produced spin-1/2 fermion	arxiv 2026-06-22	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	8%
0.58	FDA ANDA200411: MORPHINE SULFATE (MORPHINE SULFATE) — IMPAX LABS INC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.58	Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Will Trump and Putin not meet?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2025-09-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will anyone send me 1000 or more Mana before July 1(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	LLMs Prompted for Legal Context Object More: Overrefusal from Small On-Premises LLMs in Criminal Legal Context	arxiv 2026-06-23	INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy	AI	64%
0.58	MedPCFM: Improving Medical Point Cloud Completion by Integrating Point Transformers and Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.58	Exact Schur-Sylvester Dimensionality Reductions for Non-Smooth Stochastic Complexity and Manifold Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	CANDLE: Character-level Arabic Noise Deduplication using Lightweight Encoder	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Progressive Alignment Objectives for Aligner-Encoder based ASR	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Layer-wise Probing of wav2vec 2.0 and Whisper for Consonant Cluster Reduction in African American English	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.58	LangMAP: A Language-Adaptive Approach to Tokenization	arxiv 2026-06-22	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.58	Compact Object-Level Representations with Open-Vocabulary Understanding for Indoor Visual Relocalization	arxiv 2026-06-23	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.58	Multi-dimensional chaos II: String scattering amplitudes, curve repulsion, and RMT	arxiv 2026-06-23	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Binary black hole scattering with generic spins	arxiv 2026-06-23	232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.58	FDA ANDA213571: ISOTRETINOIN (ISOTRETINOIN) — UPSHER SMITH LABS	fda 2026-06-16	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	FDA NDA218754: APREPITANT (APREPITANT) — AZURITY	fda 2026-06-16	247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	55%
0.58	Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	241_017 Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built Eric Schmidt	Energy	50%
0.58	Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Will a new theatrical Star Trek movie be released on or before January 30, 2030 (1/30/30)?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-20	246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk	Space	36%
0.58	Point Cloud Diffusion with Global and Local Reconstruction for Instance-Level 3D Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	STEB: A Speech-to-Speech Translation Expressiveness Benchmark for Evaluating Beyond Translation Fidelity	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	Spam and Sentiment Detection in Arabic Tweets Using MARBERT Model	arxiv 2026-06-24	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.58	Is Variational Monte Carlo Robust? Sharp Moment Thresholds and Heavy-tailed Stochastic Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-24	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.58	RAS: Measuring LLM Safety Through Refusal Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-24	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.58	Laplace--Fisher Gate Identities for Optimal Matrix-Gated Blended Score Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Curvature-Guided Mixing for MLLM Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-23	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	SA-LIVO: Efficient LiDAR-Inertial-Visual Odometry with Subspace-Aware Degeneracy Handling	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.58	Fermion mass relations in one-parameter modular models	arxiv 2026-06-23	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	FDA NDA215960: UTEBZI (TEBIPENEM, PIVOXIL) — GLAXOSMITHKLINE LLC	fda 2026-06-17	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	FDA NDA215960: UTEBZI (TEBIPENEM, PIVOXIL) — GLAXOSMITHKLINE LLC	fda 2026-06-17	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA ANDA209624: BOSUTINIB (BOSUTINIB MONOHYDRATE) — MSN	fda 2026-06-12	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	Spread: Belgium (-2.5)(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5)(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Spread: Belgium (-3.5)(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Beşiktaş Gain win Turkey BSL?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.58	Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	241_017 Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built Eric Schmidt	Energy	50%
0.58	Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.58	Will I get someone IRL to follow me onto Manifold Markets between today and 10/30/26?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-06-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	Game 1 FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Result?	manifold 2026-06-26	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	TOPS: First-Principles Visual Token Pruning via Constructing Token Optimal Preservation Sets for Efficient MLLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-25	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	Transformer-Based Classification of Bacterial Raman Spectra with LOOCV	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Geometric Gradient Rectification for Safe Open-Set Semi-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Causality and the Equivalence Principle for Higher Energy Scattering	arxiv 2026-06-25	232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.58	Weak-Strong Resurgence Duality	arxiv 2026-06-25	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Weak-Strong Resurgence Duality	arxiv 2026-06-25	SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy/Compute	86%
0.58	facebookresearch/SONAR v0.5.0	github_release 2025-10-10	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.58	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Elly De La Cruz win the 2026 National League MVP Award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Spread: DR Congo (-1.5)(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	FDA ANDA204166: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — VISTAPHARM LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA ANDA040255: OXYCODONE AND ASPIRIN (ASPIRIN) — ANI PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA089828: ACETAMINOPHEN AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA ANDA205321: PREGABALIN (PREGABALIN) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-06-23	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA090635: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — THEPHARMANETWORK LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.58	Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.58	Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-22	SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis	Space	41%
0.58	Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.58	Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.58	Will "Why are adversaries assumed to be incapable o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-29	247_024 Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AI Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	41%
0.58	Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	241_017 Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built Eric Schmidt	Energy	50%
0.58	Trump out as President by July 31?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5)(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.58	Spread: Spain (-3.5)(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will anyone finish five chicken bowls in 20 minutes at RSI 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-30	S_ASI_FAST_2031 ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI	asi_recursive_self_improvement	10%
0.58	Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-06-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	FFAvatar: Feed-Forward 4D Head Avatar Reconstruction from Sparse Portrait Images	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Exploiting Local Flatness for Efficient Out-of-Distribution Detection	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%