Validations Queue

78,110 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 77 of 100, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
FUT_019
Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Biotech/Longevity31%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-08
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
246_014
Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space41%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
FUT_022
Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking...
Peter Zeihan
Macro/Economy72%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
241_005
2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-23
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
246_054
Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space37%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
FUT_017
Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc...
Gerd Leonhard
Media/Ads50%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
236_003
Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs49%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
241_005
2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-10
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.57
Utah vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 41%)
polymarket
2026-04-28
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
242_019
EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport50%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
236_013
Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics50%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
237_010
In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.
Alex Finn
Crypto43%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-04-29
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-01
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57
Lightning vs. Canadiens(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-04-29
231_025
Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-01
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-16
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-16
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57
Magic vs. Pistons(market prob: 27%)
polymarket
2026-04-27
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-26
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-01
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-17
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-05
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
234_004
Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-16
231_019
Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Other39%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-03
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
238_033
Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks35%
0.57
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)(market prob: 54%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57
76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 21%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-03
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-06
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-06
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-03
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.57
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-05-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
TK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-14
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
INF_039
Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v...
Alex Finn
Consumer77%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
SPC_009
Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
SPC_009
Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-04
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
SEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).
Jensen Huang
Manufacturing86%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
FUT_018
Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Energy39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-10
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57
Thunder vs. Lakers(market prob: 83%)
polymarket
2026-05-05
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-05
247_047
Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030
Peter Diamandis
Energy50%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-09
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
235_027
Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026.
Peter Diamandis
Biotech/Longevity46%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-12
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-10
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-09
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-14
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-05
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-12
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-10
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-10
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-12
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-13
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-06
FUT_008
China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics30%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-12
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-08
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57
Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 39%)
polymarket
2026-05-09
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2025-09-17
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-05
229_020
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Brett Adcock
Robotics20%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-05
233_011
Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption.
Joe Liemandt
Education37%
0.57
Spread: Dallas Wings (-3.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-05-14
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-10
CMQ_037
Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory24%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2025-09-30
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57
Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 37%)
polymarket
2026-05-11
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-07
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-07
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-10
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-10
CMQ_037
Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory24%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks41%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-07
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-15
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57
Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-17
230_006
The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.
Peter Diamandis
AI48%
0.57
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-05-16
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2025-08-17
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-17
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-15
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2025-09-11
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-08
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-08
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-28
FUT_008
China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics30%
0.57
Spurs vs. Thunder(market prob: 43%)
polymarket
2026-05-24
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-23
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-24
246_054
Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space37%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-02
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-02
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-02
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-26
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-25
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-31
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-06
246_011
Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years.
Dave Blundin
AI42%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-26
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-09
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-26
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-23
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-23
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-30
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-09
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)(market prob: 59%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-02
CYB_028
The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups...
Mark Cuban
Markets/Stocks48%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-11
FUT_023
'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri...
Ian Bremmer
Geopolitics68%
0.57
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 43%)
polymarket
2026-05-29
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-03
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-24
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 37%)
polymarket
2026-06-03
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-27
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-12
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-04
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-04
238_072
Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days
Emad Mostaque
AI74%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-01
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-02
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-26
231_002
Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-01
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-01
SPC_009
Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-31
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-31
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-30
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-02
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-02
244_008
If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up
Dara Khosrowshahi
Other53%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-07
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-07
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-07
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-02
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%