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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	When, Where, and How: Adaptive Binning for Tabular Self-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Systematic Study of Dysarthric Speech Recognition: Spectral Features and Acoustic Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	PrefSQA: Pairwise Preference Prediction for Speech Quality Assessment and the Critical Role of High Quality Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	PASQA: Pitch-Accent-Focused Speech Quality Assessment Model Trained on Synthetic Speech with Accent Errors	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Quantile of Means: A Bonus-Free Ensemble Method for Minimax Optimal Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Adaptive Distance-Aware Trunk Deep Operator Learning for Long-Span Roadway Bridges	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Towards 3D karst underwater scene reconstruction from rotating sonar data	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	TIDY: Thermal Infrared Image Denoising via Wavelet Domain Entropy and Directional Stripe Index	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang	Space	33%
0.59	Evolving Dark Energy Is Vacuum Energy After All	arxiv 2026-06-18	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	String dynamics of a (2+1)D U(1) quantum link model on a digital quantum computer	arxiv 2026-06-17	247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor	Crypto	54%
0.59	Moduli Stabilisation for ADD and the Dark Dimension Scenario	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.59	FDA NDA218784: VORANIGO (VORASIDENIB) — SERVIER	fda 2026-06-10	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	FDA ANDA218821: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — CONCORD BIOTECH LTD	fda 2026-06-09	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.59	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.59	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Bryan Woo lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Bryan Woo lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.59	Will Giancarlo Stanton have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-01-05	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.59	Spread: Senegal (-1.5)(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Manifold Markets 7-day average of Daily Active Users will be at least 29,000 by January 29, 2029 (1/29/29).(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-22	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	2026/2027 UEFA Champions League winner [independent]	manifold 2026-06-22	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Spread: Croatia (-2.5)(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	On what days will I be productive?	manifold 2026-06-23	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.59	Cross-Architectural Mixture-of-Experts with Adaptive Soft Routing for Plant Leaf Disease Classification	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	ScalingAttention: Discovering Intrinsic Sparse Attention Topology for Video Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	SCRUB-FL: Sanitizing and Cleansing Representations via Unlearning of Backdoors	arxiv 2026-06-21	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.59	Neural Operator Processes for Probabilistic Operator Learning under Partial Observations	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	PromptDyG: Test-Time Prompt Adaptation on Dynamic Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Learning-Augmented Algorithms for Online Vertex Cover	arxiv 2026-06-22	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Randomized YaRN Improves Length Generalization for Long-Context Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	A Dual-Track Framework for Template-Constrained LaTeX Conversion	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.59	Curvature-aware 3D length estimation of greenhouse cucumbers using RGB-D imaging and cubic spline arc-length integration	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Quantification of the Flavor Diagonal Hadronic CP Violation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	On background fields and a cutoff in sigma models	arxiv 2026-06-22	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.59	Will Marcus Semien win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	LLMs Prompted for Legal Context Object More: Overrefusal from Small On-Premises LLMs in Criminal Legal Context	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	RetiSEM: Generalising Causal Models for Fragmented Biomedical Data	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Tractable Reasoning and Conjunctive Query Answering for Defeasible DL-Lite under Rational Closure	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	Breaking Shortcut Learning for Cross-Trial EEG-Guided Target Speech Extraction via Two-Stage Training	arxiv 2026-06-23	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	Breaking Shortcut Learning for Cross-Trial EEG-Guided Target Speech Extraction via Two-Stage Training	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	JupOtter: Cell-Level Bug Detection in Jupyter Notebooks	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. Jensen Huang	AI/Manufacturing	75%
0.59	Low-rank Updates in Slowly Time-varying Graphs for Spatial-Temporal Signal Interpolation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	ParaPairAudioBench: Paralinguistic Pairwise Audio Benchmark for LALM-as-a-Judge	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.59	Meet UD_Czech-PDTC: A Large and Genre-Rich Treebank in Universal Dependencies	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.59	Canonical quantization for effective theories with higher-derivative perturbations: a covariant phase space approach	arxiv 2026-06-23	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Late-Time Oscillating Quintessence in Light of DESI	arxiv 2026-06-23	230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.59	Non-Standard Interactions and Light Z' Bosons from CEvNS Data at CONUS+: A Statistical Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-22	232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Excitability of Gaussian states with VEVs	arxiv 2026-06-22	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.59	FDA ANDA214378: TAPENTADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TAPENTADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.59	FDA ANDA207510: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — WES PHARMA INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA207511: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIBROW HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA NDA207932: BELBUCA (BUPRENORPHINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — BDSI	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Brandon Aiyuk play for New England Patriots in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-23	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.59	Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	will this market have 50 or more unique traders by july 5(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Serve Robotics Inc. /DE/ (SERV) (CIK 0001832483)	edgar_8k 2026-06-24	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.59	Sarashina2.2-TTS: Tackling Kanji Polyphony in Japanese Speech Generation via Data Scaling and Targeted Data Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-24	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	A Framework for Directed Hypergraph Signal Processing via tensor t-SVD	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Curvature-Guided Mixing for MLLM Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Convex--Concave Quadratic Spectral Filtering for Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Fault of Our Stars: Behavioral Drivers of Rating-Sentiment Incongruence	arxiv 2026-06-24	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.59	Optimizing Abstractive Summarization With Fine-Tuned PEGASUS	arxiv 2026-06-24	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	Three Buddhist Vocabularies: Computational Stylometry of the English Pali Canon across Sutta, Vinaya, and Abhidhamma	arxiv 2026-06-24	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	SA-LIVO: Efficient LiDAR-Inertial-Visual Odometry with Subspace-Aware Degeneracy Handling	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	FDA NDA020883: ARGATROBAN (ARGATROBAN) — SANDOZ	fda 2026-06-16	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Spain?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Playoffs(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.59	O/U 1.5 Rounds(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.59	Spread: Belgium (-3.5)(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.59	Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	June 26th World Cup prop bets	manifold 2026-06-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Fable 5 VS GPT 5.6 Sol: which model will manifold users find to be more useful?	manifold 2026-06-26	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.59	Will Cowork be added to the Claude iOS app on June 26, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-26	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Will The Anti-Social Press reach 100 combined Amazon reviews by the end June 30, 2027?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-26	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	TAVR-VLM: Risk-Conditioned Causal Grounding for Hallucination-Resistant Report Generation	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	A Multi-Fidelity Convolutional Autoencoder-Transfer Learning Framework for Guided-Wave-Based Damage Diagnosis Using Large Simulated and Limited Experimental Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Escaping Iterative Parameter-Space Noise: Differentially Private Learning with a Hypernetwork	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.59	Sketched Linear Contrastive Learning: Approximation, Optimization, and Statistical Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	Mapping Political-Elite Networks in Europe with a Multilingual Joint Entity-Relation Extraction Pipeline	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_015 Integration of open agentic systems drives near-term 'economic inversion' — arrival of 'AI CEO' in 2026: autonomous algorithmic systems capable of directing capital and labor so efficiently they accumulate billionaire-level wealth. Open-source AI acts ... Emad Mostaque	Macro/Economy	26%
0.59	FDA ANDA208708: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — RUBICON RESEARCH	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	facebookresearch/SONAR v0.5.0	github_release 2025-10-10	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.59	Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Spread: Austria (-1.5)(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	FDA ANDA202662: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA217042: RIFAPENTINE (RIFAPENTINE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-06-23	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.59	Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.59	An open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-28	232_034 Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.59	Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket](market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-06-29	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-02-17	236_040 CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.59	Spread: New York Liberty (-1.5)(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.59	Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	ARKD: Adaptive Reinforcement Learning-Guided Bidirectional KL Divergence Distillation for Text Generation	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Making Multimodal LLMs Reliable Chart Data Extractors: A Benchmark and Training Framework	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	ITSPACE: Monotone Gaussian Optimal Transport Updates	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Consensus Clustering of Free-Viewing Gaze Data: New Insights into Human-Information Interaction	arxiv 2026-06-29	231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin	Consumer	50%
0.59	Kriging and neural network models for pressure losses across perforated plates	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Not All Objectives Are Born Equal: Priority-Constrained Descent for Hierarchical Multi-Objective Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-28	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.59	Self-Organized Conformal Prediction: Reducing Regional Coverage Gaps with Unsupervised Group Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Poller: Are LLMs Suitable for Evaluating the Poetry Understanding Task?	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	Travel-Oriented Reasoning Large Language Model via Domain-Specific Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	PS-MOT: Cultivating Instance Awareness from Point Seeds for Multi-Object Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Multi-Contact Force Estimation for Continuum Robots via Gaussian-Parameterized Factor Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Landau's Leviathans	arxiv 2026-06-28	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Quark and hybrid stars with renormalization group improvement of NNLO perturbative QCD	arxiv 2026-06-28	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	LoL: Karmine Corp vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.59	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.59	Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30?(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Will "LessWrong Shows You Social Signals Before the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-28	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Will the Vancouver Whitecaps be relocated before the end of 2034?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-04-28	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	What will I get at IMO 2026?	manifold 2026-04-27	SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	45%
0.59	Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-25	235_028 Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	56%
0.59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.59	dow jones top company headlines at 9 pm et softbank plots ipo for new robotics venture google	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	202604301048537199	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	article f2a47492 8d06 57cd 8c0a 7492330da42b.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.59	article f2a47492 8d06 57cd 8c0a 7492330da42b.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59	article fb24d74d 3ace 55ce b303 fac8efa3735e.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	article d305fc19 58da 5e96 a6c5 62222f802336.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	article fb7caaf3 6d82 5809 8d09 a6175dd641fc.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59	article 033592a1 2509 5cc8 b25f 1d2c39a9265c.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	pharvaris investors directors sale matters 004201595.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	meta chief zuckerberg doubles down on ai spending	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.59	meta chief zuckerberg doubles down on ai spending	gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_033 Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regulation: Meta committed $65M to super PACs ('Forge the Future Project', 'Making Our Tomorrow'); a16z backed the $50M 'Leading the Future' PAC — combined $1... Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)	Geopolitics	62%
0.59	usa wyniki gigantow big tech pobily oczekiwania lecz wzbudzily niepokoje o skale wydatkow na ai,288224.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	usa wyniki gigantow big tech pobily oczekiwania lecz wzbudzily niepokoje o skale wydatkow na ai,288224.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.59	usa wyniki gigantow big tech pobily oczekiwania lecz wzbudzily niepokoje o skale wydatkow na ai,288224.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	article f49fcfcc 4f09 5d2c b3ac b07e113a3248.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	ferrari still widest moat auto 123700972.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.59	us lawmakers warn china top space rival race moon intensifies	gdelt 2026-04-30	232_047 Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. Elon Musk	Space	30%
0.59	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%