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86,658 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 174 of 183, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently Dave Blundin | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-11 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals go to a Game 7?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before June 20?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently Dave Blundin | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | Will greyhound racing be banned in the US by the end of 2027?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 244_013 Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the US Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Will Robin Hanson receive the Nobel Prize in Economics?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade Peter Diamandis | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-12 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-17 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 240_004 A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Haaland play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will Haaland play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | Will somebody mammogram/managram me 1500 times(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 245_027 Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026 Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | |
| 0.56 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by August 15?(market prob: 91%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.56 | Will Caroline Ellison Attend Manifest 2026?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.56 | Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | SPC_020 Archer Aviation's flagship Midnight eVTOL will launch commercial passenger flights by late 2026 — bolstered by FAA federal pilot programs; integrates NVIDIA IGX Thor onboard compute for predictive awareness, pilot safety, and autonomy-ready flight syst... Brett Adcock | Auto/Transport | 26% | |
| 0.56 | Will Jannik Sinner play in Rome M1000 2026(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 241_063 America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 239_026 Future will be very entertaining Elon Musk | Other | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 24% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | The Boys Finale IMDB score ≤ 7.0 at end of May?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I present my APUSH project before the end of the school year?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will I go to gym at least 3x a week for the rest of the May?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | |
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be $2.00–$2.25/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. Dario Amodei | AI | 77% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 242_015 Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license Salim Ismail | Auto/Transport | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 237_028 Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 78% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 234_040 Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in America Elon Musk | Real Estate | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | New fish species (market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 245_008 More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 45% |