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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.63	First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Decoupled Guidance Diffusion for Adaptive Offline Safe Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	TOC-SR: Task-Optimal Compact diffusion for Image Super Resolution	arxiv 2026-05-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Perceptual Flow Network for Visually Grounded Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-04	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	SAIL: Structure-Aware Interpretable Learning for Anatomy-Aligned Post-hoc Explanations in OCT	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.63	Dependency Parsing Across the Resource Spectrum: Evaluating Architectures on High and Low-Resource Languages	arxiv 2026-05-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Distribution-Free Pretraining of Classification Losses via Evolutionary Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.63	Free Decompression with Algebraic Spectral Curves	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.63	A Few-Step Generative Model on Cumulative Flow Maps	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Distributed Learning with Adversarial Gradient Perturbations	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Trust, but Verify: Peeling Low-Bit Transformer Networks for Training Monitoring	arxiv 2026-05-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Visual Latents Know More Than They Say: Unsilencing Latent Reasoning in MLLMs	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Benchmarking Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning of Large Language Models for Low-Resource Tajik Text Generation with the Tajik Web Corpus	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.63	FunFuzz: An LLM-Powered Evolutionary Fuzzing Framework	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	A multilingual hallucination benchmark: MultiWikiQHalluA	arxiv 2026-05-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	InfoLaw: Information Scaling Laws for Large Language Models with Quality-Weighted Mixture Data and Repetition	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.63	Decoding-Time Debiasing via Process Reward Models: From Controlled Fill-in to Open-Ended Generation	arxiv 2026-05-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Height Control and Optimal Torque Planning for Jumping With Wheeled-Bipedal Robots	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.63	Parking Assistance for Trailer-Truck Transport Vehicles Using Sensor Fusion and Motion Planning	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.63	Temporally Consistent Object 6D Pose Estimation for Robot Control	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	FDA ANDA211846: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-04-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	FDA ANDA211579: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — LUPIN	fda 2026-04-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	openai/openai-python v2.35.1	github_release 2026-05-06	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.63	Budgeted LoRA: Distillation as Structured Compute Allocation for Efficient Inference	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	Budgeted LoRA: Distillation as Structured Compute Allocation for Efficient Inference	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	ADAPTS: Agentic Decomposition for Automated Protocol-agnostic Tracking of Symptoms	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.63	FDA NDA020785: THALOMID (THALIDOMIDE) — BRISTOL-MYERS	fda 2026-04-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	FDA ANDA220398: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — MANKIND PHARMA	fda 2026-04-16	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA NDA219008: LAZCLUZE (LAZERTINIB MESYLATE) — JANSSEN BIOTECH	fda 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.0	github_release 2023-10-20	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.63	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.6	github_release 2020-09-18	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.63	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.3	github_release 2019-10-14	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.63	facebookresearch/faiss v1.5.2	github_release 2019-05-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.63	facebookresearch/balance 0.10.0	github_release 2025-01-06	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.63	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.26.post1	github_release 2024-04-29	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.63	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.22.post7	github_release 2023-10-25	S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026	robotaxi_deployment	40%
0.63	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.63	Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.63	Fed rate hike in 2026?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.63	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp or more at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	ActCam: Zero-Shot Joint Camera and 3D Motion Control for Video Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Are We Making Progress in Multimodal Domain Generalization? A Comprehensive Benchmark Study	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.63	Directional Consistency as a Complementary Optimization Signal: The GONO Framework	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	Operator-Guided Invariance Learning for Continuous Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	ReasonSTL: Bridging Natural Language and Signal Temporal Logic via Tool-Augmented Process-Rewarded Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Rethinking Vacuity for OOD Detection in Evidential Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	TinyBayes: Closed-Form Bayesian Inference via Jacobi Prior for Real-Time Image Classification on Edge Devices	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	The Weight Gram Matrix Captures Sequential Feature Linearization in Deep Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Price of Fairness in Short-Term and Long-Term Algorithmic Selections	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.63	FunctionalAgent: Towards end-to-end on-top functional design	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	AdaGamma: State-Dependent Discounting for Temporal Adaptation in Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	Safety Certification is Classification	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Visual Fingerprints for LLM Generation Comparison	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	In Data or Invisible: Toward a Better Digital Representation of Low-Resource Languages with Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Scene-Adaptive Continual Learning for CSI-based Human Activity Recognition with Mixture of Experts	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	LatentRAG: Latent Reasoning and Retrieval for Efficient Agentic RAG	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	Towards Generation-Efficient Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	DiBA: Diagonal and Binary Matrix Approximation for Neural Network Weight Compression	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.63	EMO: Pretraining Mixture of Experts for Emergent Modularity	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	The Frequency Confound in Language-Model Surprisal and Metaphor Novelty	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	Uncovering Entity Identity Confusion in Multimodal Knowledge Editing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Driver-WM: A Driver-Centric Traffic-Conditioned Latent World Model for In-Cabin Dynamics Rollout	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2025-05-02	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 12?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.63	Will April 2026 core CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-10	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.63	Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 14?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	FDA ANDA075327: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — ANI PHARMS	fda 2026-05-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.4.0	github_release 2024-02-28	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	57%
0.63	Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	When will the Jai programming language be public?	manifold 2026-05-10	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.63	Elastic Attention Cores for Scalable Vision Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	High-arity Sample Compression	arxiv 2026-05-12	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.63	ORBIT: Preserving Foundational Language Capabilities in GenRetrieval via Origin-Regulated Merging	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	MetaColloc: Optimization-Free PDE Solving via Meta-Learned Basis Functions	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	From Message-Passing to Linearized Graph Sequence Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	BSO: Safety Alignment Is Density Ratio Matching	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Transferable Delay-Aware Reinforcement Learning via Implicit Causal Graph Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Delay-Empowered Causal Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification	arxiv 2026-05-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Missing Old Logits in Asynchronous Agentic RL: Semantic Mismatch and Repair Methods for Off-Policy Correction	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Stochastic Minimum-Cost Reach-Avoid Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.63	Understanding Sample Efficiency in Predictive Coding	arxiv 2026-05-12	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.63	Delightful Gradients Accelerate Corner Escape	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	LOFT: Low-Rank Orthogonal Fine-Tuning via Task-Aware Support Selection	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	One-Step Generative Modeling via Wasserstein Gradient Flows	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	WorldComp2D: Spatio-semantic Representations of Object Identity and Location from Local Views	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.63	Quantifying Sensitivity for Tree Ensembles: A symbolic and compositional approach	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Quantifying Sensitivity for Tree Ensembles: A symbolic and compositional approach	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Force-Aware Neural Tangent Kernels for Scalable and Robust Active Learning of MLIPs	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	VectorSmuggle: Steganographic Exfiltration in Embedding Stores and a Cryptographic Provenance Defense	arxiv 2026-05-13	231_017 A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Min Generalized Sliced Gromov Wasserstein: A Scalable Path to Gromov Wasserstein	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Sampling from Flow Language Models via Marginal-Conditioned Bridges	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Self-Supervised On-Policy Reinforcement Learning via Contrastive Proximal Policy Optimisation	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Rescaled Asynchronous SGD: Optimal Distributed Optimization under Data and System Heterogeneity	arxiv 2026-05-13	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Kernel-based guarantees for nonlinear parametric models in Bayesian optimization	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	ERPPO: Entropy Regularization-based Proximal Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Amortized Neural Clustering of Time Series based on Statistical Features	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	Ergodic Trajectory Design by Learned Pushforward Maps: Provable Coverage via Conditional Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Ergodic Trajectory Design by Learned Pushforward Maps: Provable Coverage via Conditional Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.63	Frequency Bias and OOD Generalization in Neural Operators under a Variable-Coefficient Wave Equation	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.63	facebookresearch/neuroai v0.2.1	github_release 2026-05-14	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16?(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-05-14	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.63	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026 or Starmer out before July 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-14	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.63	ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC (AMD) (CIK 0000002488)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.63	Forgetting That Sticks: Quantization-Permanent Unlearning via Circuit Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.63	Boosting Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards via Randomly Selected Few-Shot Guidance	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	DeepTokenEEG Enhancing Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimers Classification via Tokenized EEG Features	arxiv 2026-05-14	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.63	InfoSFT: Learn More and Forget Less with Information-Aware Token Weighting	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Learning with Shallow Neural Networks on Cluster-Structured Features	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Fast Adversarial Attacks with Gradient Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	REALM: Retrospective Encoder Alignment for LFP Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	A Non-Monotone Preconditioned Trust-Region Method for Neural Network Training	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	XFP: Quality-Targeted Adaptive Codebook Quantization with Sparse Outlier Separation for LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	Compositional Sparsity as an Inductive Bias for Neural Architecture Design	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Spontaneous symmetry breaking and Goldstone modes for deep information propagation	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Action-Inspired Generative Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.63	SeesawNet: Towards Non-stationary Time Series Forecasting with Balanced Modeling of Common and Specific Dependencies	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	Exploring Geographic Relative Space in Large Language Models through Activation Patching	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Reinforcement Learning with Semantic Rewards Enables Low-Resource Language Expansion without Alignment Tax	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	FDA BLA761347: TECENTRIQ HYBREZA (ATEZOLIZUMAB AND HYALURONIDASE-TQJS) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-05-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Starship Flight 12 Achieve All Flight Goals?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-16	246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk	Space	36%
0.63	Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.63	Will SPY close below $720 on Friday, May 29, 2026?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-17	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20?(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Litecoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-19	247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.63	Any new Veo model released during Google I/O(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-05-18	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.63	Can machine learning for quantum-gas experiments be explainable?	arxiv 2026-05-18	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	KairosHope: A Next-Generation Time-Series Foundation Model for Specialized Classification via Dual-Memory Architecture	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	When Outcome Looks Right But Discipline Fails: Trace-Based Evaluation Under Hidden Competitor State	arxiv 2026-05-18	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	What is Holding Back Latent Visual Reasoning?	arxiv 2026-05-18	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	On Stability and Decomposition of Sample Quantiles under Heavy-Tailed Distributions	arxiv 2026-05-18	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	Proximal basin hopping: global optimization with guarantees	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Are Sparse Autoencoder Benchmarks Reliable?	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.63	$\boldsymbol{f}$-OPD: Stabilizing Long-Horizon On-Policy Distillation with Freshness-Aware Control	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	OSCAR: Offline Spectral Covariance-Aware Rotation for 2-bit KV Cache Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.63	Toy Combinatorial Interpretability Models Reveal Lottery Tickets in Early Feature Space	arxiv 2026-05-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.63	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	What will (top 1% 2026 AMC 12A) + 10 * (top 5% 2027 AIME I) be?	manifold 2026-05-28	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.63	Will 1mon (Max) wear a dress in 2026(market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-05-25	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.63	LLUMI: Improving LLM Writing Assistance for Mental Health Support with Online Community Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Reinforcement Learning with Robust Rubric Rewards	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Reinforcement Learning with Robust Rubric Rewards	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	BORA: Bridging Offline Reinforcement Learning and Online Residual Adaptation for Real-World Dexterous VLA Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	No More K-means:Single-Stage Sparse Coding for Efficient Multi-Vector Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Meta-Programming for Linear-time Temporal Answer Set Programming	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	HoliTok:A Coutinuous Holistic Tokenization with Robust Dual Capabilities of Speech Generation and Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	From XXLTraffic to EvoXXLTraffic: Scaling Traffic Forecasting to Sensor-Evolving Networks	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.63	Uncertainty-Aware Transfer Learning for Cross-Building Energy Forecasting: Toward Robust and Scalable District-Level Energy Management	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.63	SCOPE: A Lightweight-training LLM Framework for Air Traffic Control Readback Monitoring	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.63	BuilDyn: Excitation-Driven Data Generation for Building Thermal Dynamics Modeling and Control	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	When Do Graph Foundation Models Transfer? A Data-Centric Theory	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.63	The Interplay Between Interpolation and Aggregation in Regression: Optimal Sample Complexity	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.63	On-Policy Replay for Continual Supervised Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	Access Sets Matter: Budgeting Expert Reads for Scalable Weight-Space Model Merging	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_001 Single operators utilizing low-cost hardware (e.g., $600 Mac Minis) will be able to replicate the output of entire enterprise teams, drastically reducing the friction of multi-million-dollar software development — leading to total dissolution of middle... Alex Finn	Labor/Jobs	48%
0.63	Information-Directed Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	BrahmicTokenizer-131K: An Indic-Capable Drop-In Replacement for o200k_base	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.63	User-Aware Active Knowledge Acquisition for Emotional Support Dialogue	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Inform, Coach, Relate, Listen: Auditing LLM Caregiving Support Roles	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.63	SkillBrew: Multi-Objective Curation of Skill Banks for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	Beyond Bilingual Transfer: Multilingual Code-Switching in Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.63	FDA NDA008085: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA ANDA212438: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — ENCUBE	fda 2026-05-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.63	[snigus] Will I convince Destiny that managing AI-risk should be in top 2 policy priority of his?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-31	247_053 AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	38%
0.63	openai/openai-python v2.39.0	github_release 2026-06-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Am I a brain in a vat?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-01	240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.63	Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE) (CIK 0001706946)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.63	AdaCodec: A Predictive Visual Code for Video MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Initialization is Half the Battle: Generating Diverse Images from a Guidance Potential Posterior	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Food Noise & False Safety: A Systematic Evaluation of How LLMs Fail to Adapt to Eating Disorder Queries with Clinician Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_019 Physical intervention (literally unplugging data centers) may be required once AI agents begin communicating in proprietary, non-human-decipherable languages. Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	16%