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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.65	STAR: SpatioTemporal Adaptive Reward Allocation for Text-to-Image RL Post-Training	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	FacProcessTwin: An LLM-Based System for Process Twin Development	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Using Cognitive Models to Improve Language Model Simulation of Human Persuasion Games	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	From Brewing to Resolution: Tracing the Internal Lifecycle of Code Reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Implicit vs. Explicit Prompting Strategies for LVLMs in Referential Communication	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	MemTrace: Probing What Final Accuracy Misses in Long-Term Memory	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	SkillChain-Gym: A Benchmark for Reskilling-Aware Production-Inventory Control under Disruptions	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	Beyond Parallel Sampling: Diverse Query Initialization for Agentic Search	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.65	Beyond Parallel Sampling: Diverse Query Initialization for Agentic Search	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	PowerOPD: Stabilizing On-Policy Distillation with Bounded Power Transformation	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Edge Flow: A Tractable and Predictive Continuous-Time Model for Gradient Descent at the Edge of Stability	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.65	ResAware: Cross-Environment Website Fingerprinting via Resource-Privileged Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	A Closer Look at Failure Modes in Temporal Understanding of Large Audio-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	On the Memorization Behavior of LLMs in Generative Recommendation: Observations, Implications, and Training Strategies	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	Toward Accessible Psychotherapy Training Using AI-Driven Interactive Patient Avatars	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.65	Will BTC hit $70k in June after market creation?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-17	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	STARE: Surprisal-Guided Token-Level Advantage Reweighting for Policy Entropy Stability	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Compute Efficiency and Serial Runtime Tradeoffs for Stochastic Momentum Methods	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Reinforcement Learning Foundation Models Should Already Be A Thing	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Generating Natural and Expressive Robot Gestures through Iterative Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback using LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Benchmarking Action Spaces in Reinforcement Learning for Vision-based Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_046 Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once software enables it. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.65	A Variational Framework for LLM Generator-Regulator Games	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Structured Inference with Large Language Gibbs	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	DIPHINE: Diffusion-based $Φ$-ID Neural Estimator	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.65	PACT: Preserving Anchored Cores in Task-vectors for Model Merging	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	DreamReasoner-8B: Block-Size Curriculum Learning for Diffusion Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Dango: A Strictly L1-Only Large Language Model for Studying Second Language Acquisition	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	LLM Parameters for Math Across Languages: Shared or Separate?	arxiv 2026-06-16	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Implicit vs. Explicit Prompting Strategies for LVLMs in Referential Communication	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Task Allocation and Motion Planning in Dynamic, Cluttered Environments via CBBA and Graphs of Convex Sets	arxiv 2026-06-16	COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI	36%
0.65	Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.65	Will the Twin prime Conjecture be proven before 2030?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-19	232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.65	SoftSkill: Behavioral Compression for Contextual Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	ScholarQuest: A Taxonomy-Guided Benchmark for Agentic Academic Paper Search in Open Literature Environments	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Residual-Space Evolutionary Optimization via Flow-based Generative Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Tri-Info: Generalizable, Interpretable Failure Prediction for VLA Models via Information Theory	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	Library-Aware Doubles and Iterative Repair for Large Language Model-Generated Unit Tests in OpenSIL Firmware	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	Probe-and-Refine Tuning of Repository Guidance for Coding Agents	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Agentic Symbolic Search: Characterizing PDEs Beyond Hand-crafted Expressions, Meshes, and Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Sparsity, Superposition, and Forgetting: A Mechanistic Study of Representation Retention in Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Effective Dimension Governs Generalization in Quantum Kernel Vision Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.65	Leverage Is Not Reach: A Control-Window Law for Single-Neuron Steering in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	MassSpecGym in the Wild: Uncovering and Correcting Evaluation Pitfalls in AI-Driven Molecule Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Safe Local Navigation for Ackermann-Steered Robots in Unmapped Environments	arxiv 2026-06-18	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.65	FlexLAM: Resolving the Bottleneck Trade-off in Latent Action Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	China vs Japan Conflict before 2027?	manifold 2026-04-29	FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	68%
0.65	Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-28	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.65	When will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack?	manifold 2026-04-28	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.65	10729092	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.65		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.65	intelligence trust the equation that will decide australias ai winners 625399	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Bitcoin $69K in May?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	LLMs understand language [Convince the Machine #4](market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-03	241_050 AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new solutions Eric Schmidt	AI	57%
0.65	How many StackOverflow questions in May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-03	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 5?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.65	Will a bot win prize drawing this year?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-05	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.65	FDA NDA018900: METRO I.V. IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (METRONIDAZOLE) — B BRAUN	fda 2026-04-23	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	openai/openai-python v2.29.0	github_release 2026-03-17	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.65	openai/openai-python v2.25.0	github_release 2026-03-05	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.65	openai/openai-python v2.14.0	github_release 2025-12-19	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.65	openai/openai-python v2.13.0	github_release 2025-12-16	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.94.0	github_release 2026-04-10	246_047 Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. Peter Diamandis	AI	76%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.76.0	github_release 2026-01-13	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.76.0	github_release 2026-01-13	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.74.1	github_release 2025-11-19	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	huggingface/transformers v5.8.0	github_release 2026-05-05	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.65	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.0-rc1	github_release 2024-07-02	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.65	pytorch/pytorch v2.5.0	github_release 2024-10-17	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-06	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.65	The Counterexample Game: Iterated Conceptual Analysis and Repair in Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Magic-Informed Quantum Architecture Search	arxiv 2026-05-05	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.65	EvoLM: Self-Evolving Language Models through Co-Evolved Discriminative Rubrics	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	OracleProto: A Reproducible Framework for Benchmarking LLM Native Forecasting via Knowledge Cutoff and Temporal Masking	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Agent-Based Modeling of Low-Emission Fertilizer Adoption for Dairy Farm Decarbonisation using Empirical Farm Data	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.65	AdapShot: Adaptive Many-Shot In-Context Learning with Semantic-Aware KV Cache Reuse	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Automated Large-scale CVRP Solver Design via LLM-assisted Flexible MCTS	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	LLM-ADAM: A Generalizable LLM Agent Framework for Pre-Print Anomaly Detection in Additive Manufacturing	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Stop Automating Peer Review Without Rigorous Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-04	231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.65	Refining Compositional Diffusion for Reliable Long-Horizon Planning	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Deciphering Shortcut Learning from an Evolutionary Game Theory Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	From Code to Prediction: Fine-Tuning LLMs for Neural Network Performance Classification in NNGPT	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Free Decompression with Algebraic Spectral Curves	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Quantum Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning via Variational Quantum Circuits	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Will the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Impact European Electricity Prices? A GNN-Based Network Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.65	The Right Answer, the Wrong Direction: Why Transformers Fail at Counting and How to Fix It	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.65	Multi-fidelity surrogates for mechanics of composites: from co-kriging to multi-fidelity neural networks	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	BifrostUMI: Bridging Robot-Free Demonstrations and Humanoid Whole-Body Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	CoRAL: Contact-Rich Adaptive LLM-based Control for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	FDA ANDA214956: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-04-24	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	FDA NDA021880: REVLIMID (LENALIDOMIDE) — BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-04-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.65	FDA ANDA219540: GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE (GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE) — MSN	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Why Expert Alignment Is Hard: Evidence from Subjective Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-06	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Unintended Negative Impacts of Promotional Language in Patent Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-06	231_048 Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game. Salim Ismail	AI	46%
0.65	facebookresearch/faiss v1.7.4	github_release 2023-04-20	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28	github_release 2024-09-12	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.65	Will XRP reach $1.80 in May?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.65	Will Bitcoin network hashrate go up in 24h?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-08	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.65	Optimizer-Model Consistency: Full Finetuning with the Same Optimizer as Pretraining Forgets Less	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.65	The Structural Origin of Attention Sink: Variance Discrepancy, Super Neurons, and Dimension Disparity	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	NeuroAgent: LLM Agents for Multimodal Neuroimaging Analysis and Research	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.65	Coordination Matters: Evaluation of Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Coordination Matters: Evaluation of Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	CoupleEvo: Evolving Heuristics for Coupled Optimization Problems Using Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Fine-Tuning Small Language Models for Solution-Oriented Windows Event Log Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb	AI	62%
0.65	Rethinking Adapter Placement: A Dominant Adaptation Module Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Autoregressive Visual Generation Needs a Prologue	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	Hedging Memory Horizons for Non-Stationary Prediction via Online Aggregation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.65	FedFrozen: Two-Stage Federated Optimization via Attention Kernel Freezing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Federation of Experts: Communication Efficient Distributed Inference for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	Bandit Learning in General Open Multi-agent Systems	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.65	MobileEgo Anywhere: Open Infrastructure for long horizon egocentric data on commodity hardware	arxiv 2026-05-07	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.65	Belief Memory: Agent Memory Under Partial Observability	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	Monitoring autonomous persistent surveillance missions using invariance	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	On the Emergence of Pendular Structure in Multi-Contact Locomotion	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Adaptive Q-Chunking for Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	LineRides: Line-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Bicycle Robot Stunts	arxiv 2026-05-06	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.65	Driver-WM: A Driver-Centric Traffic-Conditioned Latent World Model for In-Cabin Dynamics Rollout	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	ELVIS: Ensemble-Calibrated Latent Imagination for Long-Horizon Visual MPC	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	HDFlow: Hierarchical Diffusion-Flow Planning for Long-horizon Tasks	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 10?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will April 2026 core CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-10	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 11?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Xi Jingping visit US before 2027?(market prob: 86%)	manifold 2026-05-11	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.65	FDA ANDA072736: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — HIKMA	fda 2026-05-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $89,000 on May 13?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.65	AlphaGRPO: Unlocking Self-Reflective Multimodal Generation in UMMs via Decompositional Verifiable Reward	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Enabling AI-Native Mobility in 6G: A Real-World Dataset for Handover, Beam Management, and Timing Advance	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Trust the Batch, On- or Off-Policy: Adaptive Policy Optimization for RL Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	STRABLE: Benchmarking Tabular Machine Learning with Strings	arxiv 2026-05-12	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	TMRL: Diffusion Timestep-Modulated Pretraining Enables Exploration for Efficient Policy Finetuning	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Intrinsic Vicarious Conditioning for Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Not How Many, But Which: Parameter Placement in Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	SkillSafetyBench: Evaluating Agent Safety under Skill-Facing Attack Surfaces	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.65	Improving the Performance and Learning Stability of Parallelizable RNNs Designed for Ultra-Low Power Applications	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Improving the Performance and Learning Stability of Parallelizable RNNs Designed for Ultra-Low Power Applications	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.65	GEAR: Granularity-Adaptive Advantage Reweighting for LLM Agents via Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	WorldComp2D: Spatio-semantic Representations of Object Identity and Location from Local Views	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Scale-Sensitive Shattering: Learnability and Evaluability at Optimal Scale	arxiv 2026-05-13	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.65	Decoupled and Divergence-Conditioned Prompt for Multi-domain Dynamic Graph Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Teaching and Learning under Deductive Errors	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.65	Safe Bayesian Optimization for Uncertain Correlations Matrices in Linear Models of Co-Regionalization	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	When and Why is Optimistic Multiplicative Weights Slow? The Geometry of Energy Dissipation	arxiv 2026-05-13	241_018 Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox) Eric Schmidt	Energy	55%
0.65	Collaborating in Multi-Armed Bandits with Strategic Agents	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	Implicit Behavioral Decoding from Next-Step Spike Forecasts at Population Scale	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.65	SpikeProphecy: A Large-Scale Benchmark for Autoregressive Neural Population Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Separating Shortcut Transition from Cross-Family OOD Failure in a Minimal Model	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	Separating Intrinsic Ambiguity from Estimation Uncertainty in Deep Generative Models for Linear Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Known By Their Actions: Fingerprinting LLM Browser Agents via UI Traces	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Multi-Dimensional Model Integrity and Responsibility Assessment Index and Scoring Framework	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.65	Prompting Policies for Multi-step Reasoning and Tool-Use in Black-box LLMs with Iterative Distillation of Experience	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Nexus : An Agentic Framework for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Nexus : An Agentic Framework for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	LoMETab: Beyond Rank-1 Ensembles for Tabular Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Semantic Feature Segmentation for Interpretable Predictive Maintenance in Complex Systems	arxiv 2026-05-14	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	Dynamics of the Transformer Residual Stream: Coupling Spectral Geometry to Network Topology	arxiv 2026-05-14	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	Bitcoin $100k before End of June 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-16	234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	59%
0.65	FDA ANDA075471: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — MEITHEAL	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 21?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the Tasmanian Tiger / Thylacine be confirmed alive by the end of 2030?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-05-18	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.65	Claude 5 released by End of September 2026?(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-05-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.65	Will there be a physical protest at YouTube headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.65	Will an all-reused European orbital launch vehicle reach orbit before 2040?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-15	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.65	Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	XCTFormer: Leveraging Cross-Channel and Cross-Time Dependencies for Enhanced Time-Series Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Text2CAD-Bench: A Benchmark for LLM-based Text-to-Parametric CAD Generation	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. Jensen Huang	AI/Manufacturing	75%
0.65	A Unified Framework for Structured Flow Modeling: From Continuous Fields to Data-Driven Representations	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	Attacking the First-Principle: A Black-Box, Query-Free Targeted Mimicry Attack on Binary Function Classifiers	arxiv 2026-05-18	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Foundation Models for Credit Risk Prediction: A Game Changer?	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Federated Learning by Utility-Constrained Stochastic Aggregation for Improving Rational Participation	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	RL4RLA: Teaching ML to Discover Randomized Linear Algebra Algorithms Through Curriculum Design and Graph-Based Search	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	AdaptiveLoad: Towards Efficient Video Diffusion Transformer Training	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	AdaptiveLoad: Towards Efficient Video Diffusion Transformer Training	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.65	Domain Transfer Becomes Identifiable via a Single Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	DAD4TS: Data-Augmentation-Oriented Diffusion Model for Time-Series Forecasting with Small-Scale Data	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Generating Pretraining Tokens from Organic Data for Data-Bound Scaling	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	HydroAgent: Closing the Gap Between Frontier LLMs and Human Experts in Hydrologic Model Calibration via Simulator-Grounded RL	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	StatQAT: Statistical Quantizer Optimization for Deep Networks	arxiv 2026-05-18	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	Training Infinitely Deep and Wide Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-17	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%