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103,951 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 387 of 482, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | Will someone buy 1 block today on mysterybox.art?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 237_021 Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. Alex Finn | Crypto | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang | Space | 33% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn | Consumer | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA NDA209091: QTERN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — ASTRAZENECA AB | fda 2026-06-03 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA220137: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — SOMERSET THERAPS LLC | fda 2026-06-03 | 248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA215332: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — AUCTA | fda 2026-06-02 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 60% | |
| 0.58 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Carolina Panthers next?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Knicks (-2.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Serge Gnabry be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-06 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2021-07-23 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | 232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 64% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Knicks (-3.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-01 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Knicks (-9.5)(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (expansion of universe)(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 248_027 Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. Dave Blundin | Other | 39% | |
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-08 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-08 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA BLA761480: RANLUSPEC (RANIBIZUMAB-HKDZ) — LUPIN LIMITED | fda 2026-06-02 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.58 | FDA BLA761480: RANLUSPEC (RANIBIZUMAB-HKDZ) — LUPIN LIMITED | fda 2026-06-02 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 240_024 Advanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionate Marc Andreessen | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Hubble constant)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 24% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li | AI | 63% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn | Consumer | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 14% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will George Pickens play for Atlanta Falcons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will George Pickens play for New Orleans Saints in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Arizona Cardinals next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C.(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt | Education | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2018-12-19 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 232_031 Crypto and AI will combine to form the AI economy; most people are underestimating this. Ben Horowitz | Crypto | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis) | Robotics | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA211000: MACITENTAN (MACITENTAN) — AMNEAL | fda 2026-06-08 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | INF_013 Natural gas will meet approximately 20% of the world's new power needs outside China through the late 2020s — serving as the deployable stopgap while small modular reactors, fuel cells, and battery arrays come online for hyperscaler 'Bring Your Own Pow... Morgan Stanley | Energy | 59% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis) | Robotics | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA078232: LOSARTAN POTASSIUM (LOSARTAN POTASSIUM) — LUPIN LTD | fda 2026-06-08 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.58 | Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA NDA209552: ARGATROBAN IN SODIUM CHLORIDE (ARGATROBAN) — EUGIA PHARMA SPECLTS | fda 2026-06-10 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.58 | github_release 2020-11-21 | 231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.58 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will Memphis Depay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (cosmic voids)(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-15 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-15 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2020-03-08 | 237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2020-03-05 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.58 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% |