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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-12	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	FDA BLA761291: TECVAYLI (TECLISTAMAB-CQYV) — JANSSEN BIOTECH	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.0.0	github_release 2025-10-16	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.0	github_release 2024-03-21	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-13	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Will this coordination-metrics market get at least 3 unique traders in its first 24 hours?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Aligning Flow Map Policies with Optimal Q-Guidance	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Aligning Flow Map Policies with Optimal Q-Guidance	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	TriBand-BEV: Real-Time LiDAR-Only 3D Pedestrian Detection via Height-Aware BEV and High-Resolution Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-05-12	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	Multi-Task Representation Learning for Conservative Linear Bandits	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Augmented Lagrangian Method for Last-Iterate Convergence for Constrained MDPs	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Compositional Neural Operators for Multi-Dimensional Fluid Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	A Composite Activation Function for Learning Stable Binary Representations	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	FDA ANDA205807: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — TEVA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-05-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-14	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	How many people will be regularised in Spain in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-12	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	Will "Maybe I was too harsh on deep learning theory..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Conformal Anomaly Detection in Python: Moving Beyond Heuristic Thresholds with 'nonconform'	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Limits of Personalizing Differential Privacy Budgets	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.61	OSDN: Improving Delta Rule with Provable Online Preconditioning in Linear Attention	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	On the Limits of Latent Reuse in Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Pretraining Language Models with Subword Regularization: An Empirical Study of BPE Dropout in Low-Resource NLP	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	The Diffusion Encoder	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Beyond Oversquashing: Understanding Signal Propagation in GNNs Via Observables	arxiv 2026-05-13	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	LightSplit: Practical Privacy-Preserving Split Learning via Orthogonal Projections	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Mix, Don't Tune: Bilingual Pre-Training Outperforms Hyperparameter Search in Data-Constrained Settings	arxiv 2026-05-13	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	GAGPO: Generalized Advantage Grouped Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-13	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	FDA ANDA075710: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — IMPAX LABS INC	fda 2026-04-23	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA201446: FALLBACK SOLO (LEVONORGESTREL) — LUPIN	fda 2026-05-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will SPY close above $750 on Friday, May 15, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-15	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will CISA add at least 25 vulnerabilities to the KEV catalog in May 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-14	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.61	How will I perform at IPhO 2026?	manifold 2026-05-10	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Proposal and study of statistical features for string similarity computation and classification	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Logging Policy Design for Off-Policy Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	TFGN: Task-Free, Replay-Free Continual Pre-Training Without Catastrophic Forgetting at LLM Scale	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	PROCESS-2: A Benchmark Speech Corpus for Early Cognitive Impairment Detection	arxiv 2026-05-14	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	TAPIOCA: Why Task- Aware Pruning Improves OOD model Capability	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	The Rate-Distortion-Polysemanticity Tradeoff in SAEs	arxiv 2026-05-14	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Efficient Multi-objective Prompt Optimization via Pure-exploration Bandits	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.61	Distributionally Robust Multi-Task Reinforcement Learning via Adaptive Task Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Exemplar Partitioning for Mechanistic Interpretability	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	Exemplar Partitioning for Mechanistic Interpretability	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Guided Diffusion Sampling for Precipitation Forecast Interventions	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	ICED: Concept-level Machine Unlearning via Interpretable Concept Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	TILT: Target-induced loss tilting under covariate shift	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Uncovering Trajectory and Topological Signatures in Multimodal Pediatric Sleep Embeddings	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Uncovering Trajectory and Topological Signatures in Multimodal Pediatric Sleep Embeddings	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	FDA NDA016730: DEXTROSE 5% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — B BRAUN	fda 2026-05-12	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.61	FDA BLA761331: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INC	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-16	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in August?	manifold 2026-05-16	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.61	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in August?	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.37.0	github_release 2026-05-15	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Litecoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will TSLA close below $400 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	X-Energy, Inc. (XE) (CIK 0002088896)	edgar_8k 2026-05-19	246_010 SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	43%
0.61	Modality vs. Morphology: A Framework for Time Series Classification for Biological Signals	arxiv 2026-05-18	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.61	TabH2O: A Unified Foundation Model for Tabular Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Generating Physically Consistent Molecules with Energy-Based Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Robust Player-Conditional Champion Ranking for League of Legends: Style Similarity, Mastery Priors, and Archetype-Constrained Discovery	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	Geometric Dictionary Learning of Dynamical Systems with Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	AURORA: Contextual Orthogonalization for Geometric Representation Learning in Healthcare Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Memisis: Orchestrating and Evaluating Synthetic Data for Tabular Health Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.61	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will NRG win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2025-09-22	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-30	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	What will Australia's total net overseas migration be for FY 25/26?	manifold 2026-05-29	AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	13%
0.61	Will Kalshi be operational and legal in the US on January 1, 2030?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-27	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.61	Will GTA VI sell more than 50 million copies by the end of 2027?(market prob: 91%)	manifold 2026-05-24	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.61	Tiny but Trusted: Efficient Vision-Language Reasoning for Time-Series Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	MedCase-Structured: A Text-to-FHIR Dataset for Benchmarking Diagnostic Reasoning in Clinically Realistic EHR Settings	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	HPO: Hysteretic Policy Optimization for Stable and Efficient Training under Sparse-Reward Regime	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	CalArena: A Large-Scale Post-Hoc Calibration Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Meta-Programming for Linear-time Temporal Answer Set Programming	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	CityGen: Structure-Guided City-Style Synthesis for Cross-City Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-05-28	S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026	robotaxi_deployment	40%
0.61	Towards Localized and Disentangled Knowledge Editing for Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Multi-Legal-Bench: Evaluating LLMs on Legal Reasoning Across Jurisdictions, Languages, and Legal Traditions	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Multi-Legal-Bench: Evaluating LLMs on Legal Reasoning Across Jurisdictions, Languages, and Legal Traditions	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.61	NaRA: Noise-Aware LoRA for Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning of Diffusion LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.61	EviLink: Multi-Path Schema Linking with Uncertainty-Guided Evidence Acquisition for Large-Scale Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Xetrieval: Mechanistically Explaining Dense Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	Fisher-Preserving Guidance: Training-Free Manifold Constraints for Safe Diffusion Control	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	A Triple-Modal Contrastive Learning Framework with Sequence, Graph, and 3D Features for Drug-Target Interaction Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Feedback-to-Rubrics: Can We Learn Expert Criteria from Inline Comments?	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	MusTBENCH: Benchmarking and Advancing Temporal Grounding in Music LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	HyperPrecision: A Mathematica package for High-Precision Numerical Evaluation of Multivariate Hypergeometric Functions	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	FDA NDA208573: VENCLEXTA (VENETOCLAX) — ABBVIE	fda 2026-05-20	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA078480: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-20	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.9.0	github_release 2026-05-20	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.61	Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Rcb vs gt who is win(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-31	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.61	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.61	Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-29	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-01	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Starmer out before August?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-01	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.61	New elected president of Iran before EOM May 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-31	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.61	FDA ANDA218488: EVEROLIMUS (EVEROLIMUS) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-12	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	Will Lynn Vision win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.61	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	AdaCodec: A Predictive Visual Code for Video MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Initialization is Half the Battle: Generating Diverse Images from a Guidance Potential Posterior	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	Consistency Training while Mitigating Obfuscation via Rate Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Boosting Multimodal Federated Learning via Chained Modality Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	ProbMoE: Differentiable Probabilistic Routing for Mixture-of-Experts	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	ProbMoE: Differentiable Probabilistic Routing for Mixture-of-Experts	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Minimax-Optimal Policy Regret in Partially Observable Markov Games	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	ArrythML: An Autoencoder-Based TinyML Approach for On-Device Arrhythmia Detection on Resource-Constrained Embedded Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.61	A Doeblin-Anchored Contrastive Chart for Learning Markov Transition Kernels	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	IstGPT: LLM-based Anomaly Detection for Spatial-Temporal Graph in Industrial Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Scalable Counterfactual Risk Estimation for Rare Events in Longitudinal Data	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	CEAR: Certified Ensemble Adversarial Robustness in DNNs	arxiv 2026-05-31	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Target localization, identification and sensing using latent symmetries	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Mitigating Bias in Locally Constrained Decoding via Tractable Proposals	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Mechanistic Diagnostics of Spatial Lexical Bias in Multimodal Large Language Model Spatial Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Cost-Aware Diffusion Draft Trees for Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Why Do Self-Harm Prediction Models Struggle to Generalise? Lexical and Semantic Variations in Emergency Department Triage Notes	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.61	FDA ANDA220055: ANDA220055 ((unspecified)) — MSN LABORATORIES PRIVATE LIMITED	fda 2026-05-20	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will FC Universitario win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-03	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Will I comment on this market? [Creator won't bet](market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-01	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.61	FDA ANDA077120: CARBIDOPA AND LEVODOPA (CARBIDOPA) — APOTEX INC	fda 2026-05-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.61	Will I increase the number of pull ups I can do by 50%+ by 25th June?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in June 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-06-04	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.61	X-Energy, Inc. (XE) (CIK 0002088896)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	246_010 SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	43%
0.61	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will someone buy 1 block today on mysterybox.art?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-05	230_037 Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. Dave Blundin	Consumer	50%
0.61	How many subscribers will Destiny have by the end of June 2026?	manifold 2026-06-05	SPC_006 Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual revenues exceeding $20 billion — internal cash flow essentially eliminates SpaceX's requirement for public market capital and funds high-risk developme... SpaceX	Space	88%
0.61	Self-Augmenting Retrieval for Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	In-Context Multiple Instance Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	A Finite Certificate for the Positive $n=9$ Vasc Inequality	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	TLA-Prover: Verifiable TLA+ Specification Synthesis via Preference-Optimized Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	OrderGrad: Optimizing Beyond the Mean with Order-Statistic Policy Gradient Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	OPRD: On-Policy Representation Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Measuring the sensitivity of LLM-based structured extraction to prompt, model, and schema choices in clinical discharge summaries	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.61	Agentic Molecular Recovery via Molecule-Aware Exploration	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	ViCuR: Visual Cues as Recoverable Privilege for Multimodal On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Beyond Output Matching: Preserving Internal Geometry in NVFP4 LLM Distillatio	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	How abundant are good interpolators?	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Quantifying the Privacy of Counterfactuals by Leveraging Membership Inference Attacks Against Synthetic Data	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.61	Representing Research Attention as Contextually Structured Flows	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Representing Research Attention as Contextually Structured Flows	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Field Validation of a Multi-Resolution ConvLSTM Framework for Retaining Wall Deformation Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.61	STRIDE: Training Data Attribution via Sparse Recovery from Subset Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	ColBERTSaR: Sparsified ColBERT Index via Product Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Beyond Text Following: Repairable Arbitration Reversals in Audio-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.61	Self-Evaluation Is Already There: Eliciting Latent Judge Calibration in Base LLMs with Minimal Data	arxiv 2026-06-03	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Self-Evaluation Is Already There: Eliciting Latent Judge Calibration in Base LLMs with Minimal Data	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	DuDi: Dual-Signal Distillation with Cross-Lingual Verbalizer	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Read What You Hear: Reference-Free Hypotheses Evaluation with Acoustic Discrepancy	arxiv 2026-06-03	237_024 Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation). Peter Diamandis	AI	45%
0.61	HapTile: A Haptic-Informed Vision-Tactile-Language-Action Dataset for Contact-Rich Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Cooperative Circumnavigation for Multiple Unmanned Surface Vehicles Without External Localization	arxiv 2026-06-03	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	rsx: A high-performance streaming toolkit for RAD-seq sex determination	arxiv 2026-06-04	234_027 Element Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in second half of 2026 Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.61	FDA BLA761309: COLUMVI (GLOFITAMAB-GXBM) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-05-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Next unique country Tetra visits after 11th June 2026	manifold 2026-06-06	AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei	AI	16%
0.61	What will be the sum of my AP scores releasing this July?	manifold 2026-06-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-07	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Will the June 2026 ISM Services PMI be at least 50.0?(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-06-03	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.61	CULTURESCORE: Evaluating Cultural Faithfulness in Video Generation Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.61	DIFFRACT: Neuralized Utility Maximization for Wireless Networks by Differentiable Programming	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.61	Hearing the Unspoken: Language Model Priors for Acoustic Adversarial Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Bradley-Terry Rankings for Recommender Systems Across Dataset Taxonomies	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Residual-Controlled Multiplier Learning for Stochastic Constrained Decision-Making	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Bias in Filter Feature Selection Evaluation: A Meta-Analysis of Datasets, Baselines, and Experimental Design Choices	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Phun-Bench: Evaluating LLMs on Phonological Understanding in Chinese	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	Explicit Evidence Grounding via Structured Inline Citation Generation	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	ActionMap: Robot Policy Learning via Voxel Action Heatmap	arxiv 2026-06-05	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will there be more than 150 goals scored in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-09	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-09	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	MeCo: One-Step MeanFlow-based Corrector for Multi-Channel Speech Separation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%