Predictions
1,664 of 1,664 predictions match — page 28 of 34. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 247_027 | AI | $100T | Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_030 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillions | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_038 | Crypto | crypto | Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) | Michael Saylor | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_055 | AI | AI-scaling | Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will becom… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 248_007 | AI | AI-timing | We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 239_012 | Robotics | Optimus | Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027 | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-07-01 – 2027-07-31 |
| COD_SPC_007 | Space | ESCAPADE-New-Glenn | NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 75.0% | pending | 2027-09-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| 229_009 | Robotics | humanoids | Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| 229_025 | Robotics | AI-timing | Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two yea… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 230_002 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | AI will automate away CEO labor; a few more years needed for machines to exce… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 230_005 | AI | AI-scaling | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withhe… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 230_017 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then il… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 230_022 | Robotics | AGI | Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 35.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 232_037 | Space | AI-timing | Bootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2032-10-31 |
| 235_020 | Robotics | humanoids | Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 235_021 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years. | Zipline | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 235_024 | Energy | abundance | In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 236_011 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 236_013 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 236_045 | Geopolitics | economy | Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry … | Andrew Yang | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 238_043 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | A mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human wh… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| 238_049 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 238_051 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenu… | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-05-31 |
| 238_059 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as … | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 241_007 | AI | AI-timing | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | San Francisco AI community | 4/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 241_043 | AI | AGI | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | in_progress | 2028-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| 242_001 | AI | AGI | Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current glob… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 242_005 | Space | SpaceX | Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 242_013 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 242_015 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 242_019 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 242_031 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 242_038 | Space | SpaceX | Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 242_051 | Space | orbital-AI | Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 244_019 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 246_013 | Space | orbital-AI | Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 246_039 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 247_015 | Macro/Economy | economy | Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 247_052 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs later | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 248_002 | Space | AI-timing | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial network… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 248_015 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 248_016 | AI | AI-scaling | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of y… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 248_033 | AI | AI-scaling | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| AI_018 | Energy | global-DC-construction | Global data center construction spend will reach approximately $2.9 trillion … | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| AI_032 | Biotech/Longevity | Astromech-predictive-biology | Astromech (co-founded with Harvard geneticist George Church) will quickly bec… | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | B | 18.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2035-09-30 |
| CMQ_002 | AI | AGI-capability-roadmap | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving auton… | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| COD_BIO_004 | Biotech/Longevity | mammoth-deextinction | Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028 | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 32.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| COD_SPC_002 | Space | Artemis-lunar-landing | The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| INF_006 | AI | DC-land-coverage | Over time, very large fractions of the earth's land surface will be given ove… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| INF_010 | Energy | US-power-shortfall | US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW pow… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |