Predictions
1,664 of 1,664 predictions match — page 27 of 34. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROB_001 | AI | runaway-superintelligence-recursive | If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 … | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 22.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| ROB_004 | AI | solve-physics-unification | By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve… | Demis Hassabis | 5/5 | A | 8.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| ROB_005 | Robotics | physical-intelligence-AGI-prerequisite | True AGI requires 'physical intelligence' — an AGI system must be able to con… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| ROB_027 | AI | paperclip-maximizer-revisited | The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence co… | Nick Bostrom | 4/5 | C | 35.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| SPC_007 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX-Tesla-reverse-merger | SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company wil… | Chamath Palihapitiya | 4/5 | B | 15.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| SPC_012 | Space | SpaceX-orbital-refueling-2027 | SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical pr… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 230_003 | AI | AI-scaling | AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely re… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_006 | AI | AI-scaling | The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an al… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_012 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivit… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_014 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI t… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_042 | AI | AI-timing | A pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'li… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_004 | AI | AI-timing | The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, an… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_013 | AI | AI-timing | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_003 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by tw… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_008 | AI | AI-timing | Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mecha… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_009 | AI | AI-timing | Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers vo… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_010 | AI | AI-timing | Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_034 | AI | AI-timing | Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best pro… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_044 | AI | AI-scaling | There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitor… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_051 | Space | SpaceX | Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Sta… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_052 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hir… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_053 | AI | AI-scaling | To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 233_001 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Rapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling em… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 234_010 | Defense | AI-scaling | Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_015 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_019 | Robotics | humanoids | Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_025 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_034 | Consumer | AI-scaling | Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_037 | AI | AI-scaling | Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one u… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_043 | Defense | AI-timing | Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. | Salim Ismail | 2/5 | D | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_044 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_047 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back a… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 236_012 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 236_016 | Education | AI-timing | College premium is quickly evaporating | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 236_024 | Real Estate | AI-timing | Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 236_025 | Real Estate | jobs | Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell … | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 236_026 | Education | AI-timing | College bankruptcy rate will skyrocket | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 236_029 | AI | AI-timing | Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regul… | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 237_005 | Markets/Stocks | AGI | Apple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by lever… | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 237_017 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in fi… | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 237_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 237_021 | Crypto | AI-scaling | Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can gen… | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 237_023 | AI | AGI | Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 241_008 | AI | AI-scaling | AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially mill… | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 241_057 | Robotics | AGI | Elon Musk believes robot building robot is imminent | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_023 | AI | AI-scaling | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_024 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AI | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_025 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_026 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via en… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |