Predictions
1,664 of 1,664 predictions match — page 29 of 34. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INF_053 | Energy | nuclear-gigasite-architecture | Valar Atomics "Nuclear Gigasite" model — clustering hundreds of identical Hig… | Isaiah Taylor | 4/5 | C | 30.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| INF_055 | Energy | fusion-commercial-debut | Helion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — … | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 28.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_058 | Energy | decentralized-microgrids | The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decen… | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | partial | 2028-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| 230_008 | AI | AI-timing | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and materi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_010 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_011 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Am… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_019 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the ne… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_032 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_044 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security thre… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_051 | Markets/Stocks | humanoids | Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_007 | AI | AI-timing | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong t… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_008 | AI | AI-timing | AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_017 | AI | AI-scaling | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_020 | Consumer | AI-scaling | Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (pe… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_021 | Consumer | AI-timing | Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and m… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_023 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | US crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and survei… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_024 | AI | AI-scaling | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in th… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_027 | Other | crypto | Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programma… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_028 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't k… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_029 | Other | AI-scaling | Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_034 | Energy | AI-scaling | Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it su… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_035 | Space | SpaceX | SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving othe… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_039 | AI | NVIDIA | Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_043 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Lack of hiring for junior positions will cause social unrest from young peopl… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_048 | AI | AI-timing | Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will compl… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_049 | Crypto | crypto | If privacy is cooked, then crypto is cooked (private keys compromised). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_050 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than thr… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_002 | AI | AI-timing | Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more ra… | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_004 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Big banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productiv… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_005 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast. | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_006 | Media/Ads | AI-timing | YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces res… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_007 | Media/Ads | AI-scaling | TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languag… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_011 | AI | AI-timing | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for hi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_016 | AI | AI-timing | Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inven… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_017 | AI | AI-timing | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_019 | AI | AI-timing | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | Ben Horowitz | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_020 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_023 | AI | AI-timing | AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastr… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_025 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates. | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_026 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | World will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek emp… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_027 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Entry-level/couch-potato workers will find it harder to get simple jobs; but … | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_028 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | In AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' … | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_030 | Crypto | crypto | AI banks will emerge; AI will be full economic actor supported by crypto-base… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_031 | Crypto | economy | Crypto and AI will combine to form the AI economy; most people are underestim… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_032 | Crypto | AGI | Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed. | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_033 | AI | crypto | Cryptographically strong authentication is the only security technique that w… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_035 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_036 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in … | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_040 | AI | superintelligence | Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of… | Nick Bostrom | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_041 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | PhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at gradua… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |