Validations Queue
78,110 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 66 of 100, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
Pending (total)
78,110
Reviewed
13
Filtered
19,821
page 66 / 100
Showing on page
200
Filters
URL params control source + min-similarity threshold
Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_037 With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. Peter Diamandis | Energy | 21% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2025-12-29 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.58 | T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-2.5)(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-12-15 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | |
| 0.58 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jonah Heim win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-11-04 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the New England Patriots next?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Knicks (-2.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the Chicago Bears next?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-1.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the Dallas Cowboys next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 29%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan(market prob: 79%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Arizona Cardinals next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Minnesota Vikings next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Will Kyler Murray be traded?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-26 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | |
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.58 | Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Athletics (-1.5)(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.58 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | AUT_023 Urban air mobility (eVTOL) market will generate $29 billion by 2030, scaling exponentially to over $1 trillion by 2040 — ~35x growth over 10 years as regulatory certification, manufacturing capacity, and urban vertiport infrastructure mature. Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Freddy Peralta win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Kazuma Okamoto win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Carlos Correa lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Haiti (-1.5)(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-01-13 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Netanyahu out by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-17 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-03 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Abidjan 2: Calvin Hemery vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-19 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 241_061 China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Pistons (-2.5)(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Forsaken vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey | Labor/Jobs | 74% | |
| 0.58 | 76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.58 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?(market prob: 80%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Isurus vs R2 Esports Club - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Vit Kopriva(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-15 | 231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. 76ers(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5)(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5)(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.58 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Thunder (-11.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2025-09-15 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will América FC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Paris: Diane Parry vs Chloe Paquet(market prob: 58%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-22 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.58 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | GTA VI released before June 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-05-02 | 242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% |