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75,032 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 63 of 83, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Hubble constant)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Hubble constant)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 235_023 Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. Eric Schmidt | Energy | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.58 | Will there be a large-scale riot in NYC after the NBA finals?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Donald Trump praise Allah again before 2027?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-11 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the UzChess Cup (Masters division) go to tiebreaks?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 234_033 David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months David Holz | Robotics | 23% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-14 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Starmer out by the end of this week(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | |
| 0.58 | Will silver hit $75/oz this week by close of market on Friday?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.58 | US/Israel strike on Iran by end of 2030?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I get a Gold Medal on USAMO 2027?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Florida Redistricting Before 2026 Midterms?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Florida Redistricting Before 2026 Midterms?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | CMQ_012 AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | VALVE?!(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.57 | USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | will my application to the 2026 LWCW be accepted? [short fuse](market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | will my application to the 2026 LWCW be accepted? [short fuse](market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis | Space | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Iran's food stockpile run out before Aug 2, 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will the face of Jose Luis Ricon be minted on a physical coin by 2222(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby winner, Golden Tempo win another race?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I place last in Masters Season 37?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.57 | Will I place last in Masters Season 37?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will isaak freeman become a nobel laureate?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 230_039 Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate. Alex Wissner-Gross | Education | 39% | |
| 0.57 | US Consumer Price Index (April '26) < 3.55%(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | China uses military force to take Taiwan by July 1, 2026(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 24% | |
| 0.57 | Will North Korea conduct a major military provocation(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis | Space | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Alternate requested FairlyRandom market(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 243_011 Autonomous driver will be much safer than a human being Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Keir Starmer out before September 1 2026?(market prob: 86%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis | Space | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-18 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Top team score for ARML 2026 greater than 235?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | Will New Glenn 7x2 ever fly again?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 242_019 EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 50% | |
| 0.57 | 1 in 6 Adults are NEET in 2031 (UK)(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.57 | 1 in 6 Adults are NEET in 2031 (UK)(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 231_040 Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Daniel Negreanu win a World Series of Poker Bracelet in 2026(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 87% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026 | macro_recession | 20% | ||
| 0.57 | Free Lottery (Blazar)(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.57 | will we (husband + me) move back to our hometown within 3 years?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 235_004 Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism. Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Free Lottery (Tully–Fisher Relation)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | ||
| 0.57 | Will someone buy 1 block today on mysterybox.art?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% |