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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	Replacing Parameters with Preferences: Federated Alignment of Heterogeneous Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Deepfake Audio Detection Using Self-supervised Fusion Representations	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Smart Passive Acoustic Monitoring: Embedding a Classifier on AudioMoth Microcontroller	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Coherent Hierarchical Multi-Label Learning to Defer for Medical Imaging	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Ecologically-Constrained Task Arithmetic for Multi-Taxa Bioacoustic Classifiers Without Shared Data	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.61	On Adaptivity in Zeroth-Order Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	GEM-FI: Gated Evidential Mixtures with Fisher Modulation	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Uni-OPD: Unifying On-Policy Distillation with a Dual-Perspective Recipe	arxiv 2026-05-05	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	SURE-RAG: Sufficiency and Uncertainty-Aware Evidence Verification for Selective Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	SURE-RAG: Sufficiency and Uncertainty-Aware Evidence Verification for Selective Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-05	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	A Hierarchical Sampling Framework for bounding the Generalization Error of Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Partial Effective Information Decomposition for Synergistic Causality	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.61	Phoneme-Level Deepfake Detection Across Emotional Conditions Using Self-Supervised Embeddings	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	Online Generalised Predictive Coding	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Representation learning from OCT images	arxiv 2026-05-04	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.61	From prompting to evidence-based translation: A RAG+prompt system for Japanese-Chinese translation and its pedagogical potential	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	FlexSQL: Flexible Exploration and Execution Make Better Text-to-SQL Agents	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	SemEval-2026 Task 7: Everyday Knowledge Across Diverse Languages and Cultures	arxiv 2026-05-04	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	Revisiting Semantic Role Labeling: Efficient Structured Inference with Dependency-Informed Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Leveraging Argument Structure to Predict Content Hatefulness	arxiv 2026-05-04	232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.61	EditPropBench: Measuring Factual Edit Propagation in Scientific Manuscripts	arxiv 2026-05-03	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Task-Aware Scanning Parameter Configuration for Robotic Inspection Using Vision Language Embeddings and Hyperdimensional Computing	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	FDA ANDA211156: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — INVENTIA	fda 2026-05-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	facebookresearch/map-anything v1.1	github_release 2026-01-18	S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026	robotaxi_deployment	40%
0.61	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30? [Polymarket](market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Detecting Hallucinations in Large Language Models via Internal Attention Divergence Signals	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Uncertainty-Aware Exploratory Direct Preference Optimization for Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Gyan: An Explainable Neuro-Symbolic Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-06	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	TajikNLP: An Open-Source Toolkit for Comprehensive Text Processing of Tajik (Cyrillic Script)	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	MedFabric and EtHER: A Data-Centric Framework for Word-Level Fabrication Generation and Detection in Medical LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.7	github_release 2021-02-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	facebookresearch/faiss v1.3.0	github_release 2018-07-12	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.61	facebookresearch/ProgramBench v1.0.1	github_release 2026-05-07	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.61	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.23.post1	github_release 2023-12-15	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.61	Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	Will "x-risk-themed" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Improved techniques for fine-tuning flow models via adjoint matching: a deterministic control pipeline	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	ORTHOBO: Orthogonal Bayesian Hyperparameter Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Mind the Gap? A Distributional Comparison of Real and Synthetic Priors for Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	OBLIQ-Bench: Exposing Overlooked Bottlenecks in Modern Retrievers with Latent and Implicit Queries	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Soft Deterministic Policy Gradient with Gaussian Smoothing	arxiv 2026-05-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	In Data or Invisible: Toward a Better Digital Representation of Low-Resource Languages with Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.61	Online Bayesian Calibration under Gradual and Abrupt System Changes	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	Efficient Techniques for Data Reconstruction, with Finite-Width Recovery Guarantees	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.61	Estimate Level Adjustment For Inference With Proxies Under Random Distribution Shifts	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Dynamic Controlled Variables Based Dynamic Self-Optimizing Control	arxiv 2026-05-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Eliciting associations between clinical variables from LLMs via comparison questions across populations	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	Structure-Preserving Gaussian Processes Via Discrete Euler-Lagrange Equations	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Geometry-Aware Simplicial Message Passing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	GATHER: Convergence-Centric Hyper-Entity Retrieval for Zero-Shot Cell-Type Annotation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	MultiLinguahah : A New Unsupervised Multilingual Acoustic Laughter Segmentation Method	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Negative Before Positive: Asymmetric Valence Processing in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	Generating Roadside LiDAR Datasets from Vehicle-Side Datasets via Novel View Synthesis	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	FDA NDA219249: ITOVEBI (INAVOLISIB) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.61	Valorant: G2 Esports vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.61	Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.61	US x China tariff agreement by May 31st? [Polymarket](market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	US Gas Price average for 11 May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will El Ahly SC win on 2026-05-20?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will any US brokerage support a third-party-operated user identity by the end of 2027?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-11	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.61	Free Lottery (Cosmic Explorer)(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-11	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.61	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	INF_002 By 2027-2028, the US national-security apparatus will effectively appropriate frontier AI data centers — 'The Project' — to secure algorithmic weights and physical infrastructure against state-actor espionage. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	30%
0.61	Will this coordination-metrics market get at least 3 unique traders in its first 24 hours?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-13	234_047 Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.61	Trump meets Xi Jinping again in 2026?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-05-13	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.61	LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP (LMT) (CIK 0000936468)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Enovix Corp (ENVX) (CIK 0001828318)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Scalable Token-Level Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Manifold Sampling via Entropy Maximization	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Hypernetworks for Dynamic Feature Selection	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	FIS-DiT: Breaking the Few-Step Video Inference Barrier via Training-Free Frame Interleaved Sparsity	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Fed-BAC: Federated Bandit-Guided Additive Clustering in Hierarchical Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Fed-BAC: Federated Bandit-Guided Additive Clustering in Hierarchical Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	From Token to Token Pair: Efficient Prompt Compression for Large Language Models in Clinical Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-12	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.61	A nonlinear extension of parametric model embedding for dimensionality reduction in parametric shape design	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Federated Client Selection under Partial Visibility: A POMDP Approach with Spatio-Temporal Attention	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	NexOP: Joint Optimization of NEX-Aware k-space Sampling and Image Reconstruction for Low-Field MRI	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	FedOUI: OUI-Guided Client Weighting for Federated Aggregation	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	Sharpen Your Flow: Sharpness-Aware Sampling for Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Primal-Dual Policy Optimization for Linear CMDPs with Adversarial Losses	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	FDA ANDA071198: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — BARR	fda 2026-05-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v2.12.0	github_release 2026-05-13	SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. Jensen Huang	AI/Manufacturing	75%
0.61	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.61	Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Hierarchical Transformer Preconditioning for Interactive Physics Simulation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Context-Aware Web Attack Detection in Open-Source SIEM Systems via MITRE ATT&CK-Enriched Behavioral Profiling	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	Context-Aware Web Attack Detection in Open-Source SIEM Systems via MITRE ATT&CK-Enriched Behavioral Profiling	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	LightSplit: Practical Privacy-Preserving Split Learning via Orthogonal Projections	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.61	Mix, Don't Tune: Bilingual Pre-Training Outperforms Hyperparameter Search in Data-Constrained Settings	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Generative Modeling of Approximately Periodic Time Series by a Posterior-Weighted Gaussian Process	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Generative Modeling of Approximately Periodic Time Series by a Posterior-Weighted Gaussian Process	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_030 By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive to Fortune 500 firms — granting small businesses access to tools rivaling those of large enterprises. Dario Amodei	AI	82%
0.61	Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation with Pre-training	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Offline Two-Player Zero-Sum Markov Games with KL Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-13	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Rethinking Efficient Graph Coarsening via a Non-Selfishness Principle	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.61	A General Bézier Tree Encoding Counterfactual Framework for Retinal-Vessel-Mediated Disease Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	\emph{DRIFT}: A Benchmark for Task-Free Continual Graph Learning with Continuous Distribution Shifts	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	\emph{DRIFT}: A Benchmark for Task-Free Continual Graph Learning with Continuous Distribution Shifts	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	FDA NDA203923: SODIUM THIOSULFATE (SODIUM THIOSULFATE) — HOPE PHARMS	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-09-23	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.61	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-09-23	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.61	Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	How will I perform at IPhO 2026?	manifold 2026-05-10	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Evidential Reasoning Advances Interpretable Real-World Disease Screening	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	A Non-Monotone Preconditioned Trust-Region Method for Neural Network Training	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.61	MahaVar: OOD Detection via Class-wise Mahalanobis Distance Variance under Neural Collapse	arxiv 2026-05-14	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Watch your neighbors: Training statistically accurate chaotic systems with local phase space information	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	Distributionally Robust Multi-Task Reinforcement Learning via Adaptive Task Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	ICED: Concept-level Machine Unlearning via Interpretable Concept Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	On the Burden of Achieving Fairness in Conformal Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-14	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	A Systematic Evaluation of Imbalance Handling Methods in Biomedical Binary Classification	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	bde: A Python Package for Bayesian Deep Ensembles via MILE	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.37.0	github_release 2026-05-15	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.61	facebookresearch/hydra v1.1.0.rc1	github_release 2021-05-13	CYB_014 The Exponential Organization (ExO) framework becomes mandatory corporate structure — ExOs leverage AI agents to scale operations non-linearly without corresponding headcount increases. High-friction services historically reserved for high-net-worth cli... Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	58%
0.61	Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Final (TBD beats TBD)(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-17	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	facebookresearch/AudioDec pretrain_models_v02	github_release 2024-01-03	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Will Solana dip to $60 in May?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.61	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will Biden, Trump, Putin, or Xi die last?	manifold 2026-05-18	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.61	Do you like 2% odds?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-18	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.61	Do you like 2% odds?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-18	247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg	Labor/Jobs	22%
0.61	Will Chainlink go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-18	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	Will MrBeast become a billionaire before age 35?(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-05-18	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.61	Will Brent crude futures close above $110 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will I get catch an illness before Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-19	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will more than 25,000 games be released on Steam this year?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-19	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.61	How far will the USA advance in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-19	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.61	Will a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-18	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.61	Post-Trained MoE Can Skip Half Experts via Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-18	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	GAMMA: Global Bit Allocation for Mixed-Precision Models under Arbitrary Budgets	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	When Fireflies Cluster; Enhancing Automatic Clustering via Centroid-Guided Firefly Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-18	232_049 Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	19%
0.61	Adaptive Experimentation for Censored Survival Outcomes	arxiv 2026-05-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.61	SIREM: Speech-Informed MRI Reconstruction with Learned Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	UTOPYA: A Multimodal Deep Learning Framework for Physics-Informed Anomaly Detection and Time-Series Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Improving Spatio-Temporal Residual Error Propagation by Mitigating Over-Squashing	arxiv 2026-05-18	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Scalable Decision-Focused Learning through Cost-Sensitive Regression	arxiv 2026-05-18	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	MARR: Module-Adaptive Residual Reconstruction for Low-Bit Post-Training Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-18	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	Long-horizon prediction of three-dimensional wall-bounded turbulence with CTA-Swin-UNet and resolvent analysis	arxiv 2026-05-18	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.61	Multi-site PPG: An In-the-Wild Physiological Dataset from Emerging Multi-site Wearables	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Uncertainty-Calibrated Recommendations for Low-Active Users	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Memisis: Orchestrating and Evaluating Synthetic Data for Tabular Health Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	Divergence-Suppressing Couplings for Rectified Flow	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	On Gaussian approximation for entropy-regularized Q-learning with function approximation	arxiv 2026-05-17	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	2026 political predictions (add your own)	manifold 2026-05-29	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.61	2026 political predictions (add your own)	manifold 2026-05-29	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will I comment on this market?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	More than 2000 suspected deaths due to the Ebola outbreak by the end of 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-26	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	What countries will Donald Trump visit in the remainder of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-25	S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026	ai_regulatory_pause	5%
0.61	Confirmed Ebola case in North America by EOY 2026?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-25	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.61	When will I reach 100 followers on this account?	manifold 2026-05-25	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	What amounts of mana will manifolders managram me?	manifold 2026-05-24	INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk	Energy	62%
0.61	Will "Fail safe(r) at alignment by channeling rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-24	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.61	Will this market get between 50-100 unique traders?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-24	234_032 Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	29%
0.61	Disbursements from Trump Anti-Weaponization Fund exceed 1 billion dollars before dissolution?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-24	247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	MedCase-Structured: A Text-to-FHIR Dataset for Benchmarking Diagnostic Reasoning in Clinically Realistic EHR Settings	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Do Language Models Track Entities Across State Changes?	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	What drives performance in molecular MPNNs? An operator-level factorial benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	Genetically Aligned Patient Representations Improve Hematological Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.61	FHRFormer: A Self-Supervised Masked Transformer Framework for Fetal Heart Rate Time-Series Inpainting and Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	SCOPE: A Lightweight-training LLM Framework for Air Traffic Control Readback Monitoring	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	GUITestScape: Towards Open-set Evaluation on Exploratory GUI Testing	arxiv 2026-05-28	234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Active Continual Learning with Metaplastic Binary Bayesian Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-28	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Distributionally Robust Set Representation Learning Under Inference-Time Element Corruption	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Plan, Don't Pose: Long Composite Motion Generation with Text-Aligned BFM	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.61	Forget Less, Generalize More: Unifying Temporal and Structural Adaptation for Dynamic Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Constructing efficient channels for ideal observers using the conjugate gradient method	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Deep Adaptive Dimension Reduction for Bayesian Inference in Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	Mixing Vector Model for Copolymer Inference via Mixed Integer Linear Programming	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	GrepSeek: Training Search Agents for Direct Corpus Interaction	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Learning to Feel Materials from Multisensory Tactile Data via Interpretable Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	FDA BLA761452: IMMGOLIS (GOLIMUMAB-SLDI) — ACCORD BIOPHARMA INC.	fda 2026-05-15	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.61	FDA NDA210251: BIKTARVY (BICTEGRAVIR SODIUM) — GILEAD SCIENCES INC	fda 2026-05-21	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.61	Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	How many unique viewers will this market end with?	manifold 2026-05-30	243_032 Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.61	Will I bet on this market?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Bitcoin's biggest single-hour move this week be up or down?	manifold 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Brazil 2026 Election: Will Brazil’s third way fail the 10% test?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-27	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.61	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-19	240_030 Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	35%
0.61	Global Average Temperature June 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)	manifold 2026-06-01	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.61	Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) (CIK 0001633978)	edgar_8k 2026-06-01	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.61	FDA ANDA220299: ISOPROTERENOL HYDROCHLORIDE (ISOPROTERENOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — ASPIRO	fda 2026-05-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA219529: CARBOPROST TROMETHAMINE (CARBOPROST TROMETHAMINE) — SOMERSET THERAPS LLC	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA213362: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — DAITO	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%