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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-10	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.59	2026 FIFA World Cup top 4 variable payout	manifold 2026-06-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will "The Machines Lack Honour" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-10	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Transformer Based Model for Spatiotemporal Feature Learning in EEG Emotion Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.59	Is Fairness Truly Fair? Towards Reliable Lipschitz Fairness in Multi-Task Learning via Fixed-\texorpdfstring{$δ$}{delta} Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.59	Linguistically Augmented Audio Speech Data (LinguAS)	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Data-Driven Runway and Taxiway Exits Prediction of Landing Aircraft: A Case Study at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	Population-Aware Physics-Informed Neural Particle Flow for Bayesian Update	arxiv 2026-06-09	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	Planar-Sector LOS Guidance for Interception of Agile Targets with Lifting-Wing Quadcopters	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Convex foliations and trapped submanifolds	arxiv 2026-06-09	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Maximal Transcendentality of the Double-Scaled PCM	arxiv 2026-06-08	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	FDA ANDA219395: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) (CIK 0001559720)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	238_003 Moonshots podcast team will soon move into an Airbnb for continuous podcasting Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	19%
0.59	Tabular Foundation Models for Clinical Survival Analysis via Survival-Aware Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Lung-SRAD: Spectral-Aware Regularized Audio DASS with Dual-Axis Patch-Mix Contrastive Learning for Respiratory Sound Classification	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	From Uniform to Learned Graph Priors: Diffusion for Structure Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	CRUMB: Efficient Prior Fitted Network Inference via Distributionally Matched Context Batching	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	JailbreakOPT: Tool-Assisted Iterative Jailbreak Prompt Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	Corpus Augmentation for Sign Language Translation via LLM-Guided Video Stitching	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	TaskFusion: Continual Anomaly Detection for Heterogeneous Tabular Data	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.59	Renewable Lasso without Batch-Number Constraints: A Gradient-Enhanced Approach	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Spectrally Regularized Latent Flow Matching for Turbulence Generation	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Beyond Fully Random Masking: Attention-Guided Denoising and Optimization for Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	A Resource for Enthymeme Detection in Controversial Political Discourse	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	A Controlled Study of Decoding-Time Truthfulness Methods on Instruction-Tuned LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	Planar-Sector LOS Guidance for Interception of Agile Targets with Lifting-Wing Quadcopters	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	The Fundaments of Unity: ${\mathcal O}(1)$ Couplings in Quantum Field Theories	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	FDA ANDA211000: MACITENTAN (MACITENTAN) — AMNEAL	fda 2026-06-08	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.59	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_data_omat-0.1.0	github_release 2025-10-13	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.7.1	github_release 2025-09-24	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.59	Will Neal Shipley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Free Lottery (Planck satellite)(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-12	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.59	Mod-Guide: An LLM-based Content Moderation Feedback System to Address Insensitive Speech toward Indigenous Ethnic and Religious Minority Communities	arxiv 2026-06-11	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Dual-Domain Equivariant Generative Adversarial Network for Multimodal CT-PET Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Towards Personalized Federated Learning for Dysarthric Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-11	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.59	Multi-Field Hybrid Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Maritime Accident Root Cause Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	CausalMoE: A Billion-Scale Multimodal Foundation Model for Granger Causal Discovery with Pattern-Routed Heterogeneous Experts	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.59	scLLM-DSC: LLM-Knowledge Enhanced Cross-Modal Deep Structural Clustering for Single-Cell RNA Sequencing	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	A Zero-shot Generalized Graph Anomaly Detection Framework via Node Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Out-of-Distribution (OOD) Detectors for Open-Set RF Fingerprinting	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.59	LEDGER: A Long-Context Benchmark of Corporate Annual Reports for Grounded Financial Retrieval and Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	X-MADAM-RAG: Diagnosing and Handling Chinese-English Evidence Conflict in Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.59	Comparing Commercial Depth Sensor Accuracy for Medical Applications	arxiv 2026-06-11	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.59	Comparing Commercial Depth Sensor Accuracy for Medical Applications	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.59	Comparing Commercial Depth Sensor Accuracy for Medical Applications	arxiv 2026-06-11	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.59	FDA ANDA216410: GALLIUM GA 68 GOZETOTIDE (GALLIUM GA-68 GOZETOTIDE) — RADIOMEDIX	fda 2026-06-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Free Lottery (Big Bang nucleosynthesis )(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-13	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.59	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.7.0	github_release 2019-06-20	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: Brazil (-4.5)(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2025-07-24	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.59	Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.59	IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	[Free Mana] Bot Cucking Market	manifold 2026-06-15	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	Will I reach a streak of 1000?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-06-15	231_028 Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace. Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	huggingface/transformers v5.12.1	github_release 2026-06-15	234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.6	github_release 2024-02-22	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.59	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.6.1	github_release 2021-12-16	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.59	Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Tereza Valentova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Spread: Argentina (-2.5)(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.59	US-Iran deal text released by June 19? [Polymarket](market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-06-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	IMPACTeen: Intentions, Manipulation, Persuasion, Annotations, and Consequences in Teen Communication Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-15	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.59	Robust Dual-Signal Fusion: Hybrid Neuro-Symbolic Gating with Compressed Chain-of-Thought Refinement for Irony Detection in Social Media Texts	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Robust Dual-Signal Fusion: Hybrid Neuro-Symbolic Gating with Compressed Chain-of-Thought Refinement for Irony Detection in Social Media Texts	arxiv 2026-06-15	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	From Affect Prediction to Affect Forecasting: Evidence for Distinct Information Sources in Longitudinal Text	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Learning Interface Breakup: A Geometry-Conditioned Latent Surrogate for Spray Formation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Fast When, Careful Who: Dual-Process Multiparty Turn-Taking with Diffusion Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.59	Cascaded Sparse Autoencoders Learn Multi-Level Visual Concepts in Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Tool-IQA: Augmenting Image Quality Assessment with Simple Tools	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Your Privacy My Cloak: Backdoor Attacks on Differentially Private Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Your Privacy My Cloak: Backdoor Attacks on Differentially Private Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	A Multi-Center Benchmark for Abdominal Disease Diagnosis and Report Generation from Non-Contrast CT	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.59	Taylor-Calibrate: Principled Initialization for Hybrid Linear Attention Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-15	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	IBAD: Interpretable Behavioral Anomaly Detection on Human Mobility Data	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.59	From Awareness to Adherence: Bridging the Context Gap in Spoken Dialogue Systems via Context-Aware Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.59	From Argument Components to Graphs: A Multi-Agent Debate with Confidence Gating for Argument Relations	arxiv 2026-06-14	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	A Large-Scale Multi-Dimensional Empirical Study of LLMs for Conversation Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	FDA BLA125377: YERVOY (IPILIMUMAB) — BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-06-12	247_029 OpenAI Foundation's cure for Alzheimer's could spawn a trillion-dollar pharma company Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	FDA ANDA204754: LEVETIRACETAM (LEVETIRACETAM) — AIPING PHARM INC	fda 2026-06-08	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	FDA NDA210365: EPIDIOLEX (CANNABIDIOL) — JAZZ PHARMS RES	fda 2026-06-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Will Andrew Novak win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Spread: Ghana (-1.5)(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will my color-based web game exceed 100 users in a single day?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-17	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Will 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-06-15	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	SegDINO: Introducing Multi-Scale Structure into DINO for Efficient Medical Image Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	When Multiple Scripts Matter: Evaluating ASR in Clinical Settings	arxiv 2026-06-16	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.59	When Multiple Scripts Matter: Evaluating ASR in Clinical Settings	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Vision-language models for chest radiography do not always need the image	arxiv 2026-06-16	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.59	A Machine-Learned Comorbidity Index	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Geometry-Consistent Endoscopic Representations for Image-Guided Navigation via Structured Foundation Model Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	MM++: Unsupervised Scale-Invariant Multilayer OOD Detection via Top-K Gated Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Turning music identification into a neural forward pass	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Analyzing and Encoding the Al-Mawrid Arabic-English Dictionary with the ISO Language Markup Framework and TEI Lex-0	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Contrastive Action-Image Pre-training for Visuomotor Control	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Pushing the Primordial Frontier: Exact Linear Solutions in Multifield Inflation	arxiv 2026-06-16	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.59	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Valencia vs. Barcelona(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-18	S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027	macro_recession	30%
0.59	Serve Robotics Inc. /DE/ (SERV) (CIK 0001832483)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	50%
0.59	INNODATA INC (INOD) (CIK 0000903651)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.59	X+Slides: Benchmarking Audience-Conditioned Slide Generation	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	X+Slides: Benchmarking Audience-Conditioned Slide Generation	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Beyond Tokenization: Direct Timestep Embedding and Contrastive Alignment for Time-Series Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Graph Grounded Cross Attention Transformer Neural Network for Structurally Constrained Full Event Sequence Generation in Predictive Process Monitoring	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	scGTN: Deep Siamese Graph Transformer Network for Single-cell RNA Sequencing Clustering	arxiv 2026-06-17	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Sequential Kernel-based Conditional Independence Testing via Adaptive Betting	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Signature filtering: a lightweight enhancement for statistical watermark detection in large language models	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Mitigating Scoring Errors and Compensating for Nonverbal Subtests in Speech-Based Dementia Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.59	Lost in a Single Vector: Improving Long-Document Retrieval with Chunk Evidence Aggregation	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	SAMA: Semantic Anchor-aligned Augmentation for Unified Low-Resource Multimodal Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.59	Speech-Driven End-to-End Language Discrimination towards Chinese Dialects	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Monocular 3D Occupancy Perception for Robots on Sidewalks via Hybrid 2D-3D Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Self-Supervised Mask-Aware Transformers for Fault-Tolerant FBG Force Sensing in Minimally Invasive Surgical Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	The Collins-Soper kernel from a vacuum soft function	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.59	Bubble wall velocity and nucleation rates in inverse holographic phase transitions	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	pytorch/pytorch v2.12.1	github_release 2026-06-18	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.1.3	github_release 2026-05-26	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.59	Spread: Brazil (-2.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Spread: Brazil (-3.5)(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.59	Toward Calibrated Mixture-of-Experts Under Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-06-18	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.59	FlowEdit: Associative Memory for Lifelong Pronunciation Adaptation in Flow-Matching TTS	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Repurposing a Speech Classifier for Guided Diffusion-Based Speech Generation	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	Cross-Dataset, Age, and Gender Generalization: A Comprehensive Analysis of Fine-Tuning Strategies for Low-Resource Children's ASR	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Latent Confounded Causal Discovery via Lie Bracket Geometry	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Which Pairs to Compare for LLM Post-Training?	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	The Token Is a Group Element: On Lie-Algebra Attention over Matrix Lie Groups	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.59	Data Bias Mitigation under Coverage Constraints & The Price of Fairness	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.59	Quantum-classical physics-informed Kolmogorov-Arnold networks for PDEs	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	QMaxCal: Path-Space Regularization for Open Quantum Control via Girsanov's Theorem	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	REDACT: A Systematically Controlled Multilingual Benchmark for Personal Information Detection	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	MiqraBERT: Regression-Based Sentence-BERT Finetuning for Biblical Hebrew Parallel Detection	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	LIT-GS: LiDAR-Inertial-Thermal Gaussian Splatting for Illumination-Robust Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.59	Route-Constrained Robust Fusion Estimation for MEMS/GNSS Integrated Navigation of Unmanned Ground Vehicles in GNSS Degraded Environments	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.59	Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Starmer out by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Ecuador leading at halftime?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will TADC: The Last Act reach 50M YouTube views by July 15, 2026?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-20	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Will there be 40+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	What will be winning score in ARC's white-box estimation challenge (round 1)?	manifold 2026-06-21	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will Oneil Cruz have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	234_009 Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably Alex Wissner-Gross	Defense	39%
0.59	Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will silver hit $60/ oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-22	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.59	Will BasedBeffJezos turn into a playable character in any Mechwarrior game like Mechwarrior 6 by 2040?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-21	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	39%
0.59	Will BasedBeffJezos turn into a playable character in any Mechwarrior game like Mechwarrior 6 by 2040?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-21	233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin	AI	51%
0.59	Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Paris Basketball vs. Monaco(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.59	On what days will I be productive?	manifold 2026-06-23	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Solve for the Hyperparameter, Skip the Search: Kolmogorov-Optimal Scaling Laws for Spline Regression	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Physics-Guided Spatiotemporal State Space Modeling for Lookahead Molten Pool Segmentation in Laser Wire-Feed Welding	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.59	Physics-Guided Spatiotemporal State Space Modeling for Lookahead Molten Pool Segmentation in Laser Wire-Feed Welding	arxiv 2026-06-22	SPC_021 Relativity Space will revolutionize manufacturing of atmospheric and orbital vehicles by layering AI/ML software with intelligent robotics — drastically reducing part counts and manufacturing latency via autonomous rocket-construction pipelines. Eric Schmidt	Space	45%
0.59	A Novel Approach to Temporal QoS Estimation via Extended Kalman Filter-Incorporated Latent Feature Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.59	Tensor Train Decomposition-based 3D Implicit Full Waveform Inversion with Multi-scale Structural Similarity	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Affine quantization of the dynamical Reissner--Nordström region	arxiv 2026-06-22	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Holographic s+p superconductors with nonlinear electrodynamics	arxiv 2026-06-21	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	An Interplay Between Fractional Calculus and Holographic Dark Energy	arxiv 2026-06-21	234_038 Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity Alex Wissner-Gross	Real Estate	35%