Predictions
1,664 of 1,664 predictions match — page 22 of 34. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 241_019 | AI | AI-timing | AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_020 | Energy | AI-timing | 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_024 | Space | AI-timing | Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_025 | Space | AGI | Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellations | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_026 | Space | AI-timing | Space data center technology is understood and largely figured out | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_027 | Robotics | humanoids | China will win low-end robotic hardware race | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_028 | Geopolitics | humanoids | US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_030 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Low-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up by automation | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_032 | AI | AI-timing | World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scale | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_033 | AI | AI-timing | Few frontier AI companies will be in China | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_034 | AI | AI-timing | One or two frontier AI companies in Europe | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_035 | AI | AI-timing | Maybe one frontier AI company in India | Eric Schmidt | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_036 | AI | AI-timing | No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_037 | AI | AI-timing | Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_038 | AI | AGI | Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_040 | AI | AI-timing | A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_041 | AI | AI-timing | Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_042 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance | Eric Schmidt | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_044 | Energy | AI-timing | Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government s… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_045 | AI | AI-scaling | Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_048 | Education | AI-timing | AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_049 | AI | AI-timing | Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_051 | AI | AI-timing | AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_054 | Space | AI-timing | Space wins by far on energy argument for data centers | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_055 | Space | AI-timing | Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_056 | Robotics | humanoids | Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs down | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_059 | Energy | AI-timing | Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_060 | Space | AI-timing | Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_063 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 242_042 | AI | AI-scaling | Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 243_027 | Auto/Transport | jobs | Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_013 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_031 | Energy | autonomous | Uber's network will move to EVs as autonomous becomes bigger reality | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_033 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_035 | Other | AI-timing | Uber will only enter adjacencies that 'rhyme' with core capabilities | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_036 | AI | AI-scaling | Uber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model tes… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_037 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Uber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of work | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 245_017 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of … | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 245_018 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Invasive species problem is currently measured at $5.4 trillion globally | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 245_019 | Macro/Economy | AGI | US spends over $500B per year on invasive species economic impact | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 245_022 | Macro/Economy | $100T | Gene drive technology now represents a $5 trillion problem opportunity | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 245_025 | Biotech/Longevity | synbio | Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal t… | Ben Lamm | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 245_035 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Gene drive tech is safer than prior dispersals and can be rolled back | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_007 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_024 | AI | AI-scaling | Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_027 | AI | AI-timing | AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathoge… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_029 | AI | AI-scaling | Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_035 | AI | AI-timing | Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_048 | AI | AI-timing | Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_050 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after i… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |