Predictions
1,664 of 1,664 predictions match — page 23 of 34. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 247_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_010 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_011 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_012 | AI | AI-timing | The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_019 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for n… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_003 | Space | SpaceX | SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 sate… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_005 | Space | SpaceX | V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink… | Video Narration (SpaceX) | 5/5 | D | 92.0% | hit | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_012 | AI | AI-scaling | AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-report… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_013 | AI | AI-scaling | Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_014 | AI | AI-timing | If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_018 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Young software developer job decline is self-correcting and has reversed in r… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_019 | Space | orbital-AI | US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_020 | Robotics | humanoids | Jevons paradox: bandwidth demand will explode as 10 billion robots and AVs ne… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_021 | Space | AI-scaling | Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dolla… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_022 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_023 | AI | AI-scaling | Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_024 | Other | AI-timing | AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_025 | Other | AI-timing | Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while prolife… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_027 | Other | AI-scaling | Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. | Dave Blundin | 1/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_028 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_029 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_030 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_032 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_034 | Markets/Stocks | AGI | Capital chasing AI stories is outpacing operating reality; narrative leverage… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_035 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-1… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_036 | AI | AI-timing | AI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_037 | AI | orbital-AI | State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute i… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_038 | Robotics | humanoids | We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_039 | AI | NVIDIA | Social license, not chips or compute, may be the true bottleneck to AI and wi… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_040 | AI | AI-timing | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_042 | Robotics | humanoids | A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_044 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_045 | Biotech/Longevity | humanoids | Another humanoid species will emerge at some future point beyond homo sapiens. | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_046 | Space | AI-scaling | Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_047 | Markets/Stocks | AGI | Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic e… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_048 | AI | AI-scaling | AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_049 | AI | AI-timing | Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligen… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_050 | AI | AI-scaling | Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| PMCI_AMPX_20260601 | short_horizon_breakout | — | AMPX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-01 | pmci_v1 | — | — | 2.5% | miss | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-08 |
| PMCI_CB_20260601 | short_horizon_breakout | — | CB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-01 | pmci_v1 | — | — | 2.5% | miss | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-08 |
| PMCI_RMBS_20260601 | short_horizon_breakout | — | RMBS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-01 | pmci_v1 | — | — | 2.5% | hit | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-08 |
| PMCI_COIN_20260602 | short_horizon_breakout | — | COIN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-02 | pmci_v1 | — | — | 2.5% | miss | 2026-06-02 – 2026-06-09 |
| PMCI_FSLR_20260602 | short_horizon_breakout | — | FSLR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-02 | pmci_v1 | — | — | 2.5% | miss | 2026-06-02 – 2026-06-09 |
| PMCI_GOOGL_20260602 | short_horizon_breakout | — | GOOGL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-02 | pmci_v1 | — | — | 2.5% | miss | 2026-06-02 – 2026-06-09 |
| PMCI_HOOD_20260602 | short_horizon_breakout | — | HOOD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-02 | pmci_v1 | — | — | 2.5% | miss | 2026-06-02 – 2026-06-09 |
| PMCI_ITRI_20260602 | short_horizon_breakout | — | ITRI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-02 | pmci_v1 | — | — | 2.5% | miss | 2026-06-02 – 2026-06-09 |
| PMCI_NET_20260602 | short_horizon_breakout | — | NET >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-02 | pmci_v1 | — | — | 2.5% | miss | 2026-06-02 – 2026-06-09 |
| PMCI_SPOT_20260602 | short_horizon_breakout | — | SPOT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-02 | pmci_v1 | — | — | 2.5% | miss | 2026-06-02 – 2026-06-09 |
| PMCI_WDC_20260602 | short_horizon_breakout | — | WDC >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-02 | pmci_v1 | — | — | 2.5% | miss | 2026-06-02 – 2026-06-09 |