Predictions
1,178 of 1,660 predictions match — page 14 of 24. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 241_048 | Education | AI-timing | AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_049 | AI | AI-timing | Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_051 | AI | AI-timing | AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_054 | Space | AI-timing | Space wins by far on energy argument for data centers | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_055 | Space | AI-timing | Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_056 | Robotics | humanoids | Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs down | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_059 | Energy | AI-timing | Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_060 | Space | AI-timing | Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_063 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 242_042 | AI | AI-scaling | Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 243_027 | Auto/Transport | jobs | Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_013 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_031 | Energy | autonomous | Uber's network will move to EVs as autonomous becomes bigger reality | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_033 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_035 | Other | AI-timing | Uber will only enter adjacencies that 'rhyme' with core capabilities | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_036 | AI | AI-scaling | Uber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model tes… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_037 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Uber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of work | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 245_017 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of … | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 245_018 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Invasive species problem is currently measured at $5.4 trillion globally | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 245_019 | Macro/Economy | AGI | US spends over $500B per year on invasive species economic impact | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 245_022 | Macro/Economy | $100T | Gene drive technology now represents a $5 trillion problem opportunity | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 245_035 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Gene drive tech is safer than prior dispersals and can be rolled back | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_007 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_024 | AI | AI-scaling | Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_027 | AI | AI-timing | AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathoge… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_035 | AI | AI-timing | Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_048 | AI | AI-timing | Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_050 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after i… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_010 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_011 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_012 | AI | AI-timing | The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_019 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for n… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_012 | AI | AI-scaling | AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-report… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_013 | AI | AI-scaling | Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_014 | AI | AI-timing | If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_018 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Young software developer job decline is self-correcting and has reversed in r… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_020 | Robotics | humanoids | Jevons paradox: bandwidth demand will explode as 10 billion robots and AVs ne… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_021 | Space | AI-scaling | Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dolla… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_022 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_023 | AI | AI-scaling | Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_024 | Other | AI-timing | AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_025 | Other | AI-timing | Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while prolife… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_027 | Other | AI-scaling | Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. | Dave Blundin | 1/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_028 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_029 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_030 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_032 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_034 | Markets/Stocks | AGI | Capital chasing AI stories is outpacing operating reality; narrative leverage… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |