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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	Deep learning-based detection of cessation of breathing in pre-term infants	arxiv 2026-06-22	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Bridge the Gaps: Heterogeneous Attributed Graph Clustering via Quaternion Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	PeLAP-A: Adaptive Latent Pruning for Lightweight Latent Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	DT-GOL: Dual-Track Geometric Online Learning in Nonstationary Environment with Label Delay	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Neural Operator Processes for Probabilistic Operator Learning under Partial Observations	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Statistical Matching via Schrödinger Bridge beyond Conditional Independence	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Scalable Bayesian Additive Models for Stellar Flare Detection via Amortized Gaussian Process Inference and Hidden Markov Models	arxiv 2026-06-21	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.59	Scalable Bayesian Additive Models for Stellar Flare Detection via Amortized Gaussian Process Inference and Hidden Markov Models	arxiv 2026-06-21	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.59	Twisting Small-$x$ Gluon Tomography with Orbital Angular Momentum	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.59	Minimum Virtual Proper Time and Finite Mass--Charge Matching in QED	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Steering a warp drive without exotic matter	arxiv 2026-06-21	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	An Interplay Between Fractional Calculus and Holographic Dark Energy	arxiv 2026-06-21	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	FDA ANDA090659: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — SUN PHARM INDS INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-06-24	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	RetiSEM: Generalising Causal Models for Fragmented Biomedical Data	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	video-SALMONN-R$^3$: Learning to ReWatch, ReAsk, and ReAnswer for Efficient Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	Cycle-Consistent Neural Explanation of Formal Verification Certificates	arxiv 2026-06-23	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.59	Tractable Reasoning and Conjunctive Query Answering for Defeasible DL-Lite under Rational Closure	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	ReMMD: Realistic Multilingual Multi-Image Agentic Verification for Multimodal Misinformation Detection	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	UOL@IDEM at BEA 2026 Shared Task 1: Neural Fusion and Feature-Rich Modeling for L1-Aware Vocabulary Difficulty Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	The Topology of the Universe	arxiv 2026-06-23	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.59	Non-perturbative, background independent Fock representations for canonical quantum gravity	arxiv 2026-06-23	232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Forms, half-densities, and the quantum odd symplectic category in the BV formalism	arxiv 2026-06-22	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	8%
0.59	FDA ANDA078316: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE AND IBUPROFEN (IBUPROFEN) — BARR LABS INC	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	FDA ANDA077723: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND IBUPROFEN (HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE) — STRIDES PHARMA	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA ANDA210758: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA209404: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-23	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.59	Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-23	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (SEDG) (CIK 0001419612)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.59	Adaptive Oscillatory Inductive Bias for Modeling Sharp Prosodic Dynamics in Diffusion-Based TTS	arxiv 2026-06-24	232_010 Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing. Peter Diamandis	AI	52%
0.59	Neural Machine Translation for Low-Resource Tangkhul--English	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	FedReLa: Imbalanced Federated Learning via Re-Labeling	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.59	Efficient Analytic Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Modal Regression	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	ConSolv: Solvent-Conditional Machine Learning Implicit Solvent Potential	arxiv 2026-06-23	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	ConSolv: Solvent-Conditional Machine Learning Implicit Solvent Potential	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Towards Structuring an Arabic-English Machine-Readable Dictionary Using Parsing Expression Grammars	arxiv 2026-06-23	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	ForceBand: Learning Forceful Manipulation with sEMG	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	SAGE-Nav: Leveraging LLM Planning and Alignment Fusion for Hierarchical Scene Graph-Guided Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-24	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.59	Lepton number violation at hadron colliders via pseudo-Dirac heavy neutral leptons	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 93%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Spread: Egypt (-4.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Spain?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: Egypt (-1.5)(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Spread: Egypt (-1.5)(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5)(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	GPT-5.6 Sol vs Claude Fable 5, which will be broadly available first?	manifold 2026-06-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	3D Spatial Pattern Matching	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	MKG-RAG-Bench: Benchmarking Retrieval in Multimodal Knowledge Graph-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	A Multi-Fidelity Convolutional Autoencoder-Transfer Learning Framework for Guided-Wave-Based Damage Diagnosis Using Large Simulated and Limited Experimental Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.59	Transformer-Based Classification of Bacterial Raman Spectra with LOOCV	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	LearniBridge: Learnable Calibration of Feature Caching for Diffusion Models Acceleration	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	Zero-shot Tweet-Level Stance Detection Enhanced by External Knowledge and Reflective Chain-of-Thought Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Approximating Feynman integrals using complete monotonicity and Stieltjes properties	arxiv 2026-06-25	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.59	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	FDA ANDA040893: MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — GENUS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Will Logan Webb strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: Brazil (-1.5)(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-06-28	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? (market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-28	INF_002 By 2027-2028, the US national-security apparatus will effectively appropriate frontier AI data centers — 'The Project' — to secure algorithmic weights and physical infrastructure against state-actor espionage. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	30%
0.59	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 4.5(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 4.5(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	C$^{2}$R: Cross-sample Consistency Regularization Mitigates Feature Splitting and Absorption in Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	SonoCLIP: Mask-Guided Region-Aware Vision-Language Pretraining for Fetal Ultrasound Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-28	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.59	TF-MoE: Time-Frequency Mixture-of-Experts for Efficient Speech Separation	arxiv 2026-06-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	The Verbose Context Problem in Medical Records	arxiv 2026-06-28	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.59	The Verbose Context Problem in Medical Records	arxiv 2026-06-28	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Hybrid Active-Online Learning Framework for Label-Efficient Concept Drift Adaptation in Optical Network Failure Detection	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.59	Managing Map Cardinality in Automatic Disease Classification Mapping: Balancing Precision, Recall and Coverage	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Preference-ASR: A Preference-Aware Test Set for Benchmarking ASR in the Era of Speech LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	DistilledGemma: Balanced Efficiency-Accuracy for Person-Place Relation Extraction from Multilingual Historical Articles	arxiv 2026-06-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Self-supervised Geometry Reasoning for LiDAR Simultaneous Localization and Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Self-supervised Geometry Reasoning for LiDAR Simultaneous Localization and Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Cross-Spectral Stereo Inertial Odometry	arxiv 2026-06-29	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.59	On the Identifiability of Aided Inertial Navigation Under Measurement Delays: A Geometric Approach	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Will Alyssa Thomas win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Milan: Completed Match: Marco Cecchinato vs Raul Brancaccio(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will I run further than @draaglom in July?(market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-07-01	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.59	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-06-30	247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor	Crypto	54%
0.59	Semantic Leakage and Privacy Preservation in Relay-Assisted Semantic Communications	arxiv 2026-06-30	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.59	A Bayesian Filtering Approach for Learning Lagrangian Dynamics from Noisy Measurements	arxiv 2026-06-30	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.59	Can Tabular In-Context Learners Generalize to Biomolecular Property Prediction?	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	The Label Imitation Game: Turing Test Network for Zero-Shot Pseudo-Label Pruning	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	FDA ANDA090895: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA218307: OSELTAMIVIR PHOSPHATE (OSELTAMIVIR PHOSPHATE) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-06-25	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	Will Switzerland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advance(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Spread: Portugal (-3.5)(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Spread: Egypt (-1.5)(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.59	Portugal vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	How many "Will Tiger complete a problem set" markets will it take to result in a yes resolution?	manifold 2026-07-02	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.59	Generative Model Proposal based Particle Filtering for Data Assimilation	arxiv 2026-07-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Deep Multitask Learning for Mixed-Type Outcomes with Shared Sparsity	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Prototype Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Leveraging Multimodality for Real-Time Classification of Transients and Variables found by the Zwicky Transient Facility	arxiv 2026-06-30	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.59	FDA ANDA090707: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — VISTAPHARM LLC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA ANDA203518: MORPHINE SULFATE (MORPHINE SULFATE) — TRIS PHARMA INC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-01-13	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis	Space	49%
0.59	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis	Space	49%
0.59	Canadiens vs. Lightning(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.59	Spread: Lakers (-4.5)(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.59	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-03-06	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.59	LoL: NRG Esports vs Citadel Gaming (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.59	Kash Patel out by April 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-03	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Callais: Which of these states will use a new congressional map for 2026?	manifold 2026-04-29	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will ManiFold Hire a GTM manager until 30 May 2026(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-04-29	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.59	Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Android's age verification system before 2027?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-29	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-04-28	235_020 Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	29%
0.59	Will Poland surpass the UK in GDP per capita by PPP prior to 2035?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-04-26	230_035 GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	32%
0.59	Will Poland surpass the UK in GDP per capita by PPP prior to 2035?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-04-26	AI_001 AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending the sequential maturation roadmap beyond 'independent researcher' (2028) into full-domain superintelligence. Sam Altman	AI	33%
0.59	How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?	manifold 2026-04-24	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	14%
0.59	Will Eliezer Yudkowsky actually debate @47fucb4r8c69323?(market prob: 93%)	manifold 2026-04-24	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.59	MYR GROUP INC. (MYRG) (CIK 0000700923)	edgar_8k 2026-04-29	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	dow jones top company headlines at 9 pm et softbank plots ipo for new robotics venture google	gdelt 2026-04-30	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.59	Read?newsId=04303366645421368&mediaCodeNo=257	gdelt 2026-04-30	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.59	article fb7caaf3 6d82 5809 8d09 a6175dd641fc.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	view?ud=2026042915480706790	gdelt 2026-04-30	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.59	2580647	gdelt 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	google microsoft prove ai cloud driving ad reven.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.59	article e228d3aa c78b 5496 9870 334f0ea6dec7.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.59	article ddcab03b 2b7f 5303 8341 e1e8f4863883.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	article ddcab03b 2b7f 5303 8341 e1e8f4863883.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_025 The entire global installed base of data centers must be ripped out and replaced — legacy DCs unfit for AI factory workloads. Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	49%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	ferrari still widest moat auto 123700972.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	230_010 Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	da davidson initiates micron buy 160024095.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_029 DRAM manufacturers must expand production aggressively — 'NVIDIA will buy all you can make'. Jensen Huang	Semis/Memory	74%
0.59	Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	55%
0.59	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	Stars vs. Wild(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FOKUS (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.59	Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	244_004 Race car driving will persist as a sport Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	50%
0.59	Will US Average Gas Prices rise or fall 10 cents in one day in May 2026?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-04-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.59	Where will the talk on Information Markets given by Ashwin (creator of this Market) be held?	manifold 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Atlassian Corp (TEAM) (CIK 0001650372)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	50%
0.59	Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NTLA) (CIK 0001652130)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.59	Spread: Rockets (-3.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	LoL: Galions vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LFL Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-19	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics (market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%