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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.62	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	Will the Mechanize.work team have to hire bodyguards/bomb scanners by EOY2031?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-12	232_044 There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Will I be promoted to Mana Gold by 12 am May 31, 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-13	236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.62	Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of August 2026?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-05-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	High-arity Sample Compression	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Multi-Variable Conformal Prediction: Optimizing Prediction Sets without Data Splitting	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	LOFT: Low-Rank Orthogonal Fine-Tuning via Task-Aware Support Selection	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	From Token to Token Pair: Efficient Prompt Compression for Large Language Models in Clinical Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Dual-Temporal LSTM with Hybrid Attention for Airline Passenger Load Factor Forecasting: Integrating Intra-Flight and Inter-Flight Booking Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	FERMI: Exploiting Relations for Membership Inference Against Tabular Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.62	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.62	Will the global refined copper market record a deficit of 500,000+ tonnes for full-year 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-14	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.62	How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?	manifold 2026-05-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	QLAM: A Quantum Long-Attention Memory Approach to Long-Sequence Token Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Reducing cross-sample prediction churn in scientific machine learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.62	Min-Max Optimization Requires Exponentially Many Queries	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Force-Aware Neural Tangent Kernels for Scalable and Robust Active Learning of MLIPs	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Rethinking Generalization in Graph Neural Networks: A Structural Complexity Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	Spatiotemporal downscaling and nowcasting of urban land surface temperatures with deep neural networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_006 Over time, very large fractions of the earth's land surface will be given over to data centers as AI compute demand scales — hyperscaler DC footprint transitions from discrete campuses to regional-scale compute territories. Sam Altman	AI	40%
0.62	Decoupled and Divergence-Conditioned Prompt for Multi-domain Dynamic Graph Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Temper and Tilt Lead to SLOP: Reward Hacking Mitigation with Inference-Time Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Reward-Weighted On-Policy Distillation with an Open Property-Equivalence Verifier for NL-to-SVA Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Beyond Oversquashing: Understanding Signal Propagation in GNNs Via Observables	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.62	Chem-GMNet: A Sphere-Native Geometric Transformer for Molecular Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Chem-GMNet: A Sphere-Native Geometric Transformer for Molecular Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Mix, Don't Tune: Bilingual Pre-Training Outperforms Hyperparameter Search in Data-Constrained Settings	arxiv 2026-05-13	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	McCast: Memory-Guided Latent Drift Correction for Long-Horizon Precipitation Nowcasting	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	Generative Modeling of Approximately Periodic Time Series by a Posterior-Weighted Gaussian Process	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Amortized Neural Clustering of Time Series based on Statistical Features	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_004 Equity markets will algorithmically reward corporate entities that utilize AI to slash headcount while ruthlessly punishing those that retain human-heavy operational structures — transforming AI from productivity tool into an economic surveillance mech... Andrew Yang	Markets/Stocks	30%
0.62	Understanding and Accelerating the Training of Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.62	Revisiting Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards from a Contrastive Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-13	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	FDA NDA212306: XPOVIO (SELINEXOR) — KARYOPHARM THERAPS	fda 2026-04-30	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	FDA ANDA075435: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — TEVA PHARMS	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2025-10-15	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.62	How much additional mana will be printed by the 2x trader bonuses in 7 days? (total trader bonuses divided by 2)	manifold 2026-05-15	247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.62	Will Apple's WWDC26 Keynote transcript mention MCP or Model Context Protocol?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-05-14	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.62	Beam Global (BEEM) (CIK 0001398805)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.62	Learning from Language Feedback via Variational Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-14	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.62	Road Maps as Free Geometric Priors: Weather-Invariant Drone Geo-Localization with GeoFuse	arxiv 2026-05-14	243_030 Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots Dara Khosrowshahi	Robotics	31%
0.62	AIMing for Standardised Explainability Evaluation in GNNs: A Framework and Case Study on Graph Kernel Networks	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Denoising-GS: Gaussian Splatting with Spatial-aware Denoising	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	REALM: Retrospective Encoder Alignment for LFP Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Video2GUI: Synthesizing Large-Scale Interaction Trajectories for Generalized GUI Agent Pretraining	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	IsoNet: Spatially-aware audio-visual target speech extraction in complex acoustic environments	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Scalable Solution of the Stochastic Multi-path Traveling Salesman Problem via Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	Action-Inspired Generative Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Enjoy Your Layer Normalization with the Computational Efficiency of RMSNorm	arxiv 2026-05-14	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	A Novel Schur-Decomposition-Based Weight Projection Method for Stable State-Space Neural-Network Architectures	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Distributionally Robust Multi-Task Reinforcement Learning via Adaptive Task Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	AIM-DDI: A Model-Agnostic Multimodal Integration Module for Drug-Drug Interaction Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Architecture-Aware Explanation Auditing for Industrial Visual Inspection	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Towards Real-Time Autonomous Navigation: Transformer-Based Catheter Tip Tracking in Fluoroscopy	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	Quantum Advantage in Multi Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	ProtoMedAgent: Multimodal Clinical Interpretability via Privacy-Aware Agentic Workflows	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Will Starship Flight 12 Achieve All Flight Goals?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-16	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.62	FDA NDA212728: NURTEC ODT (RIMEGEPANT SULFATE) — PFIZER	fda 2026-05-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-08-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-18	237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis	AI	59%
0.62	Will Solana reach $170 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will there be a trend spike for The Third Man Theme before 2038?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-19	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Robots reliably do my laundry by?	manifold 2026-05-19	229_040 When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millimeter' of every other task because it's all just data. Dave Blundin	Robotics	43%
0.62	Learning to Look Benign: Targeted Evasion of Malware Detectors via API Import Injection	arxiv 2026-05-18	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	Learning to Look Benign: Targeted Evasion of Malware Detectors via API Import Injection	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.62	On Stability and Decomposition of Sample Quantiles under Heavy-Tailed Distributions	arxiv 2026-05-18	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.62	Improved Baselines with Representation Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-05-18	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Training data attribution in diffusion models via mirrored unlearning and noise-consistent skew	arxiv 2026-05-18	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	OSCAR: Offline Spectral Covariance-Aware Rotation for 2-bit KV Cache Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Domain Incremental Learning for Pandemic-Resilient Chest X-Ray Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-18	230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.62	How does feature learning reshape the function space?	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Will Polymarket feature a market about Teamfight Tactics before 2028?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-05-24	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.62	mcp-proto-okn: Natural-language access to open scientific knowledge graphs through the Model Context Protocol	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.62	CalArena: A Large-Scale Post-Hoc Calibration Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	Neural Network Verification using Partial Multi-Neuron Relaxation	arxiv 2026-05-28	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Evolving Features vs Evolving Entire Trees with GP for Interpretable Survival Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-28	237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.62	MuPHI: Learning Implicit Multimodal Harm Reasoning via Semantically Grounded Reward Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Towards Localized and Disentangled Knowledge Editing for Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Inferring Code Correctness from Specification	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.62	FHRFormer: A Self-Supervised Masked Transformer Framework for Fetal Heart Rate Time-Series Inpainting and Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.62	COMET: Concept Space Dissection of the Modality Gap in Audio-Text Multimodal Contrastive Embeddings	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Quotient DAGs for Off-Policy Evaluation:Forward-Flow Importance Sampling and Exact Slate Propensities	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Unveiling the Visual Counting Bottleneck in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	MIC: Maximizing Informational Capacity in Adaptive Representations via Isotropic Subspace Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	A Domain-Informed Multi-Objective Framework for EEG Channel Selection in Motor Imagery BCIs	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	TraceCodec: A Compiler-Backed Neural Codec for Stateful Multi-Flow Network Traffic Traces	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	A Triple-Modal Contrastive Learning Framework with Sequence, Graph, and 3D Features for Drug-Target Interaction Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.62	STAP: A Shuffle-Tokenized App Predictor with Ultra Long Context for Vocabulary-Free Mobile App Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Bastion: Budget-Aware Speculative Decoding with Tree-structured Block Diffusion Drafting	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Attention as In-Context Empirical Bayes: A Two-Stage View via Particle Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Causal Interventions on Continuous Variables: A Case Study on Verb Bias in Steering Vectors for In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Leveraging Routing Dynamics in Mixture-of-Experts Models for Efficient Language Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Phase-Conditioned Imitation Learning with Autonomous Failure Recovery for Robust Deformable Object Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	FDA ANDA212682: NEBIVOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE (NEBIVOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — PRINSTON INC	fda 2026-05-20	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	huggingface/transformers v5.9.0	github_release 2026-05-20	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.62	LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.62	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-03-17	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.62	US Gas Price $3.800 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-31	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Bitcoin's biggest single-hour move this week be up or down?	manifold 2026-05-29	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.62	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	By how much will Colombia's 10Y bond yield drop when bond markets open after 5/31/26?	manifold 2026-06-01	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.62	Resolves to floor(sqrt(traders)) mod 2(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-01	240_011 NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being floored Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	FDA ANDA216988: CLONAZEPAM (CLONAZEPAM) — RUBICON RESEARCH	fda 2026-05-21	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA ANDA208002: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — AMNEAL PHARMS CO	fda 2026-05-19	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.40.0	github_release 2026-06-01	230_046 OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public. Dave Blundin	AI	43%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.39.0	github_release 2026-06-01	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.62	Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.62	Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.62	Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.62	Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.62	Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Will Vietnam's real GDP grow by at least 12% in 2026(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-02	232_022 Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI. Ben Horowitz	Macro/Economy	42%
0.62	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-02	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.62	Will ETH be more or less volatile than BTC this week?	manifold 2026-05-29	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.62	TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC (TXN) (CIK 0000097476)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.62	Topological texture analysis of microscopy images of dynamic casein gelation and its relation to rheological properties	arxiv 2026-06-01	245_029 IVF will be transformed by Colossal's hydrogel/microfluidics embryo tech and new grading scale Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.62	Topological texture analysis of microscopy images of dynamic casein gelation and its relation to rheological properties	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.62	Towards 3D-Aware Video Diffusion Models: Render-Free Human Motion Control with Mesh Tokenization	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	RA-LWLM: Retrieval-Augmented In-Context Localization with Wireless Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Learning Implicit Bias in Generative Spaces for Accelerating Protein Dynamics Emulation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.62	STaR-KV: Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Re-weighting for KV Cache Compression in GUI Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	THRD: A Training-Free Multi-Turn Defense Framework for Jailbreak Attacks on Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Off-the-Shelf LLMs as Process Scorers: Training-Free Alternative to PRMs for Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	E4GEN: Event-level Explainable Extreme-Enhanced Time-series Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	RoleCDE:Benchmarking and Mitigating Role-Alignment Trade-offs in Role-Playing Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	A Minimalist Brain-Computer Musical Interface for Real-Time Emotion-Driven Sonification: System Design and Preliminary Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-31	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.62	TabPrep: Closing the Feature Engineering Gap in Tabular Benchmarks	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	Minimax-Optimal Policy Regret in Partially Observable Markov Games	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	Riemannian Gradient Descent for Low-Rank Architectures	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Hybrid Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Data-Efficient Polymerization Modeling with Incomplete Kinetics	arxiv 2026-06-01	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.62	Planar Symmetric Pattern Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Flow-Transformed Implicit Processes for Function-Space Variational Inference	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	IstGPT: LLM-based Anomaly Detection for Spatial-Temporal Graph in Industrial Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.62	Gate the Filter, Not the Message: Node-Channel Mixtures for Pre-Propagation GNNs	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Scalable Counterfactual Risk Estimation for Rare Events in Longitudinal Data	arxiv 2026-06-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	Do Gender Cues Affect LLM Value Trade-offs? Evidence from a Controlled Decision Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.62	Cross-Environment Neural Reranking for Sample-Efficient Action Selection in Text-Based Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	On the Salience of Low-Probability Tokens for AI-Generated Text Detection: A Multiscale Uncertainty Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	TukaBench: A Culturally Grounded Jailbreak Benchmark for African Languages	arxiv 2026-05-31	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Don't Read Everything: A Curvature-Conditioned Query for Linear Attention	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Trust Functions: Near-Lossless Weak-to-Strong Generalization by Learning When to Trust the Weak Teacher	arxiv 2026-05-31	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Trust Functions: Near-Lossless Weak-to-Strong Generalization by Learning When to Trust the Weak Teacher	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	Will the June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 50.0?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-02	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.62	Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.62	Gold price above 5,100.00 in June 2026(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-04	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Best METR 80% Time Horizon in 2026	manifold 2026-06-04	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.62	Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6?(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.62	Regret Minimization with Adaptive Opponents in Repeated Games	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	In-Context Multiple Instance Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	Unsupervised Pattern Analysis in Japanese Veterinary Toxicology: A Regulatory-Compliant Framework for Cross-Species Risk Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.62	Where does Absolute Position come from in decoder-only Transformers?	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	A Pre-Registered Causal Partition of Self-Consistency Elicitation and Reward Design in RLVR	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	An Improved CNN-LSTM Based Intrusion Detection System for IoT Networks	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	When Surface Form Changes Moderation Decisions: A Paired Study of Code-Mixed Workflow Instability	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_005 AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12 months (by late 2026) — humans relegated to reviewer/editor role. Dario Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	SlotGCG: Exploiting the Positional Vulnerability in LLMs for Jailbreak Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Causal Atlases from Entropic Inference: Bayesian Networks beyond Optimal DAGs	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	The Post-GCN Decade Revisited: Curvature-Stratified Evaluation of Relational Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Learned Response-Field Inertia Operator for HEC-RAS 2D Water-Surface Elevation Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Learned Response-Field Inertia Operator for HEC-RAS 2D Water-Surface Elevation Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	A Machine Learning-Based Framework for Discovering Huntington's Disease Stages: Integrating Graph Representation Learning and clustering to Uncover Progression Dynamics in Longitudinal Enroll-HD Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	On the training of physics-informed neural operators for solving parametric partial differential equations	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.62	Tight list replicability bounds via a novel sphere covering theorem	arxiv 2026-06-04	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.62	High-Dimensional Theory of LoRA Fine-Tuning in a Solvable Attention Model	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	Revisiting Prototype Rehearsal for Exemplar-Free Continual Learning: Manifold-Aware Boundary Sampling with Adaptive Class-Balanced Loss	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	Revisiting Prototype Rehearsal for Exemplar-Free Continual Learning: Manifold-Aware Boundary Sampling with Adaptive Class-Balanced Loss	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Two-Way Is Better Than One: Bidirectional Alignment with Cycle Consistency for Exemplar-Free Class-Incremental Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.62	Monte Carlo Steklov Operators for Large-Scale Geometry Processing in the Wild	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	PJ-RoPE: A Fourier-Jet-Affine Position Space for Relative Attention	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	The Invisible Hand of Physics: When Video Diffusion Models Know More Than They Show	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Multimarginal flow matching with optimal transport potentials	arxiv 2026-06-03	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	STRIDE: Training Data Attribution via Sparse Recovery from Subset Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-03	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	GLASS: GRPO-Trained LoRA for Acoustic Style Steering in Zero-Shot Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Bootstrapping Semantic Layer from Execution for Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	EpiEvolve: Self-Evolving Agents for Streaming Pandemic Forecasting under Regime Shifts	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Depth-Attention: Cross-Layer Value Mixing for Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	DeliChess: A Multi-party Dialogue Dataset for Deliberation in Chess Puzzle Solving	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	BEATS: Bootstrapping E-commerce Attribute Taxonomies for Search through Iterative Human-AI Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	NextMotionQA: Benchmarking and Judging Human Motion Understanding with Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	A Novel Method with Encoder-Decoder for Cross-Sensor Adaptation in Surface Shape Sensing with Sparse Strain Sensors	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	D$^3$-MoE:Dual Disentangled Diffusion Mixture-of-Experts for Style-Controllable End-to-End Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	OLIVE: Online Low-Rank Incremental Learning for Efficient Adaptive Exoskeletons	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	FDA NDA209091: QTERN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — ASTRAZENECA AB	fda 2026-06-03	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	FDA NDA204042: INVOKANA (CANAGLIFLOZIN) — JANSSEN PHARMS	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA ANDA218405: SITAGLIPTIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (SITAGLIPTIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — MANKIND PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-21	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	FDA ANDA077802: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — GLENMARK PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will May 2026 headline CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-06-03	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.62	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-01-15	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.62	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Will Andrej Kramarić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will Antoine Semenyo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will the June 2026 ISM Services PMI be at least 50.0?(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-06-03	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.62	facebookresearch/vissl v0.1.6	github_release 2021-11-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%