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83,930 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 151 of 179, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the "5000 Gazans" market bankrupt @Chumchulum?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will the "5000 Gazans" market bankrupt @Chumchulum?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 244_004 Race car driving will persist as a sport Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 236_016 College premium is quickly evaporating Andrew Yang | Education | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 242_021 Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 48% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | VALVE?!(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 240_007 Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 38% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026 | macro_recession | 20% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Rudy Giuliani die in 2026?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will Rudy Giuliani die in 2026?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque | Media/Ads | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 248_044 Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 240_002 Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Stephen Colbert run for president in 2028?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Dan complain about the cost of NYC unprompted?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 231_005 Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 242_050 Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain Dave Blundin | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-18 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.57 | Resolves to Square root of a random number between 1-10,000(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | Will The Democrats Win Every Presidential Election from 2028 to 2040?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | AI_001 AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending the sequential maturation roadmap beyond 'independent researcher' (2028) into full-domain superintelligence. Sam Altman | AI | 33% | |
| 0.57 | Will New Glenn 7x2 ever fly again?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 28% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-31 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-31 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-31 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% |