Validations Queue

101,098 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 346 of 938, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.63manifold
2026-04-29
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.63manifold
2026-04-28
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.63manifold
2026-04-27
231_014
Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.63polymarket
2025-07-10
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.63manifold
2026-04-30
230_010
Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks47%
0.63gdelt
2026-04-30
INF_018
SpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 solar, near-absolute-zero vacuum for passive cooling, and eliminating freshwater consumption constraints of terrestrial facilities.
Elon Musk
Space20%
0.63gdelt
2026-04-30
SEM_043
SpaceX is actively exploring deployment of data centers in space — seeking regulatory permission immediately as rivals investigate orbital compute.
Gwynne Shotwell
Space/Compute54%
0.63gdelt
2026-04-30
CMQ_026
NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.
Jensen Huang
Semis83%
0.63gdelt
2026-04-30
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.63gdelt
2026-04-30
246_002
SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks38%
0.63
gdelt
2026-04-30
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-25
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-25
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-16
240_038
Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humans
Jason Calacanis
Labor/Jobs35%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-30
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.63manifold
2026-05-01
TK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25%
0.63polymarket
2025-12-16
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-27
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63polymarket
2026-05-03
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63manifold
2026-05-02
238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI78%
0.63manifold
2026-05-02
248_027
Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos.
Dave Blundin
Other39%
0.63polymarket
2026-05-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-28
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.63polymarket
2026-05-01
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.63polymarket
2025-10-10
230_010
Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks47%
0.63manifold
2026-05-04
238_047
US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar
Emad Mostaque
Energy45%
0.63manifold
2026-05-04
240_034
Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028
Morgan Stanley
Energy47%
0.63manifold
2026-05-04
234_019
Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.63polymarket
2025-11-12
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.63manifold
2026-05-05
TK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15%
0.63
FDA ANDA205081: MILNACIPRAN HYDROCHLORIDE (MILNACIPRAN HYDROCHLORIDE) — AMNEAL PHARMS
fda
2026-04-14
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.63
FDA ANDA220221: VERICIGUAT (VERICIGUAT) — TORRENT PHARMACEUTICALS LTD
fda
2026-04-20
242_048
FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity36%
0.63github_release
2026-03-13
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.63github_release
2026-02-24
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.63github_release
2025-12-19
234_017
OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks
OpenAI Codex Lead
AI41%
0.63github_release
2025-12-10
241_037
Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights
Eric Schmidt
AI49%
0.63github_release
2026-04-09
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.63github_release
2025-11-25
248_038
We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash.
Salim Ismail
Robotics34%
0.63github_release
2024-10-24
SEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.
Jensen Huang
AI/Manufacturing75%
0.63github_release
2024-09-30
SEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.
Jensen Huang
AI/Manufacturing75%
0.63github_release
2023-11-14
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.63polymarket
2026-05-06
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-16
246_001
SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks79%
0.63polymarket
2025-07-28
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.63manifold
2026-05-06
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.63manifold
2026-05-06
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
242_048
FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity36%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
CYB_006
When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr...
Kevin Weil
AI63%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
AUT_002
Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI59%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
CYB_023
Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de...
Michael Saylor
Crypto26%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
FUT_003
Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
INF_027
AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC.
Demis Hassabis
Biotech/Longevity38%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
238_070
Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
COD_TECH_001
A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps
Codex Research Pack
Semis50%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
AUT_004
Equity markets will algorithmically reward corporate entities that utilize AI to slash headcount while ruthlessly punishing those that retain human-heavy operational structures — transforming AI from productivity tool into an economic surveillance mech...
Andrew Yang
Markets/Stocks30%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.63
FDA ANDA210111: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — BRECKENRIDGE
fda
2026-04-27
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.63
FDA ANDA211582: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — ZYDUS PHARMS
fda
2026-04-06
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.63manifold
2026-05-07
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.63manifold
2026-05-03
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-06
238_070
Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
AUT_020
AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag...
MacKenzie Price
Education49%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.63github_release
2021-06-30
229_020
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Brett Adcock
Robotics20%
0.63github_release
2019-08-15
240_020
New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI
Dave Blundin
AI46%
0.63github_release
2023-04-26
242_044
Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.63github_release
2025-11-12
COD_TECH_001
A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps
Codex Research Pack
Semis50%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-20
234_009
Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably
Alex Wissner-Gross
Defense39%
0.63polymarket
2026-05-01
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.63polymarket
2026-05-02
SEM_039
Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory.
Jack Dorsey
Semis/ASICs83%
0.63manifold
2026-05-07
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-07
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-07
AUT_020
AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag...
MacKenzie Price
Education49%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-07
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-07
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-07
ROB_025
Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati...
Peter Dannenberg
Biotech/Longevity70%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-07
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-07
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-07
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-07
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-07
231_027
Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments.
Salim Ismail
Other44%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-07
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%