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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.60	MOSS-Audio Technical Report	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Breaking the Information Silo: Semantic Personas for Cross-Domain Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Measurement Geometry and Design for Trustworthy Generative Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	Massive Spikes in LLMs are Bias Vectors: Mechanistic Uncovering and Spike-Free Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	A combination of noise and bilateral filters achieve supralinear and scalable adversarial robustness in CNNs	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Hybrid Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Data-Efficient Polymerization Modeling with Incomplete Kinetics	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.60	Error Bounds for a Diffusion Model-Based Drift Estimator	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Error Bounds for a Diffusion Model-Based Drift Estimator	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.60	Planar Symmetric Pattern Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.60	Randomized Least Squares Value Iteration itself is Joint Differentially Private	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Sensitivity as a Double-Edged Sword: A Trade-off Between Discriminability and Adversarial Robustness	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	MomentKV: Closing the Directional Gap in KV Cache Eviction for Long-Context Inference	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Perception First: A Frontier Native-Video Model with Self-Consistency for Implicit Video Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	When Rating Scales Fall Short: LLM-Assisted Discovery of ADHD Signals in Turkish Teacher Narratives	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.60	When Rating Scales Fall Short: LLM-Assisted Discovery of ADHD Signals in Turkish Teacher Narratives	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	CARTE: A Benchmark for Mapping Language Model Knowledge Across France	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.60	What to Format and How: A Benchmark and Workflow Approach for Document Formatting	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.60	TalkTag: Fine-Grained Morphosyntactic Error Annotation for Transcribed Speech	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	DrugClaw and DrugAudit: A Primary-Source-Grounded Agent and Authority-Aware Benchmark for Drug-Information Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-31	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.60	TukaBench: A Culturally Grounded Jailbreak Benchmark for African Languages	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Med-HEAL: Analyzing and Mitigating Hallucinations in Medical LLMs with Hallucination-Aware In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-05-31	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.60	Med-HEAL: Analyzing and Mitigating Hallucinations in Medical LLMs with Hallucination-Aware In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.60	IndoBias: A Dual Track Culturally Grounded Benchmark for LLMs Bias Evaluation in Indonesian Languages	arxiv 2026-05-31	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.60	Beyond Sinusoids: A Morlet Wavelet Framework for Transformer Positional Encoding	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	Beyond Sinusoids: A Morlet Wavelet Framework for Transformer Positional Encoding	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.5	github_release 2020-05-28	AI_017 NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... Jensen Huang	Semis	75%
0.60	Will CD Real Tomayapo vs. Club ABB end in a draw?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	C3.ai, Inc. (AI) (CIK 0001577526)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.60	Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-01-13	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.60	Will Messi have more than or equal to G/A than Ronaldo in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-06-04	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.60	ARGAN INC (AGX) (CIK 0000100591)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.60	Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.60	Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Changers North America Playoffs(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.60	Pretraining Recurrent Networks without Recurrence	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	TRACE: A Temporal Conditional Estimation for Multimodal Time Series Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Unsupervised Pattern Analysis in Japanese Veterinary Toxicology: A Regulatory-Compliant Framework for Cross-Species Risk Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.60	Emotion-Aware Image Generation from Korean Diary Text via LLM-based Prompt Translation and LoRA Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Next-Generation Parallel Decoder for LPDR: Architectural Optimization and Class-Balanced GAN-Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_016 NVIDIA Rubin platform in full production by 2026 — slashes computational cost of generating AI tokens to 1/10 of previous architectures. Autonomous reasoning model 'Alpamayo' shifts self-driving technology from fragile rule-based coding to verifiable l... Jensen Huang	AI	75%
0.60	FIDES: Faithful Inference via Deep Evidence Signals for Retrieval-Memory Conflict in RAG	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	TailLoR: Protecting Principal Components in Parameter-Efficient Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Function-Space Priors for Bayesian Neural ODEs with Application to Vessel Trajectory Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.60	Performance Evaluation of GraphCast for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting over Brazil	arxiv 2026-06-04	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	Wall Shear Stress Reconstruction from Concentration: Differentiable Physics and Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Cross-scale spatially-aware generative modeling of transcriptomic programs underlying neurodegenerative brain organization	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Diff2SP: Diffusion Models for Correlated Scenario Generation in Stochastic Programming	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Monte Carlo Steklov Operators for Large-Scale Geometry Processing in the Wild	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	English-to-Prakrit Machine Translation via Multilingual Transfer Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Caliper: Probing Lexical Anchors versus Causal Structure in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	T-FunS3D: Task-Driven Hierarchical Open-Vocabulary 3D Functionality Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	D$^3$-MoE:Dual Disentangled Diffusion Mixture-of-Experts for Style-Controllable End-to-End Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-03	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	Multi-entropy in random tensor networks	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	FDA NDA209805: STEGLUJAN (ERTUGLIFLOZIN) — MSD SUB MERCK	fda 2026-06-03	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA NDA208400: XATMEP (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — AZURITY	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.60	Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE) (CIK 0001805077)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.60	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07?(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.60	Will I score higher than 1500 on the June 6th SAT?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-06-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.1.2	github_release 2020-05-04	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.60	SV-Detect: AI-generated Text Detection with Steering Vectors	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Never Seen Before: Benchmarking Genuine Zero-Shot Composed Image Retrieval with Consistent Video-Sourced Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	The Proxy Benders Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.60	Constructing VAE Latent Spaces with Prescribed Topology	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	The Lipreading Gap: Do VSR Models Perceive Visual Speech Like Human Lipreaders?	arxiv 2026-06-05	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.60	Learning Perspectivist Social Meaning via Demographic-Conditioned Fusion Embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Vanishing of all redshift modes in Schwarzschild ringdown	arxiv 2026-06-05	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-01-29	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.60	Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in June 2026?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-06-08	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.60	can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-08	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.60	SEMTECH CORP (SMTC) (CIK 0000088941)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	74%
0.60	FDA NDA209637: OZEMPIC (SEMAGLUTIDE) — NOVO	fda 2026-06-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	When will Claude Fable return to Pro	manifold 2026-06-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-09	INF_037 An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	58%
0.60	Will a Claude Fable model be released Tuesday June 9th?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-09	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.60	CARE: A Conformal Safety Layer for Medical Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	CARE: A Conformal Safety Layer for Medical Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	ZIPP:Zero-shot Image Personalization from Personas	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Adaptive directional gradients for parameterised quantum circuits	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	In-Context Learning for Latent Space Bayesian Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Counterfactual Reasoning for Fine-Grained Evidence Disentanglement in VideoQA	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.60	A spectral audit framework reveals task-dependent aperiodic reliance across EEG and ECG deep learning	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.60	TruthSplit: Operationalizing Conditional Validity in Arguments Through Multi-Perspective Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.60	ChinaHeritaQA: A Culturally-Grounded Visual Question Answering Dataset for World Heritage Sites in China	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.60	AsyncLane: Decoupling Refinement from Advancement in Diffusion Language Model Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_001 If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	29%
0.60	Geometry-Aware Fisheye-LiDAR Fusion for Robust 3D Object Detection in Low-Overlap Setups	arxiv 2026-06-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	Certified spectral functions from lattice Monte Carlo data	arxiv 2026-06-08	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	Conceptual and Geometric Foundations for a Teleparallel Approach to Quantum Gravity	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.60	Asymptotic Algebras and Holography of Information in CGHS Model	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.60	FDA BLA761063: EMGALITY (GALCANEZUMAB-GNLM) — ELI LILLY AND CO	fda 2026-06-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA217298: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — MSN	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.60	Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-10	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Monte Carlo Pass Search: Using Trajectory Generation for 3D Counterfactual Pass Evaluation in Football	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Causal Ensemble Agent: Hierarchical Causal Discovery with LLM-guided Expert Reweighting	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Building Change Detection in Earthquake: A Multi-Scale Interaction Network and A Change Detection Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-09	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.60	Building Change Detection in Earthquake: A Multi-Scale Interaction Network and A Change Detection Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	Efficiently Learning Drifting Halfspaces with Massart Noise	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Efficiently Learning Drifting Halfspaces with Massart Noise	arxiv 2026-06-09	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	Data-Driven Runway and Taxiway Exits Prediction of Landing Aircraft: A Case Study at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport	arxiv 2026-06-09	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.60	Pre-AF 13: An Interpretable Atrial Fibrillation Risk Score Mined from Discharge Reports	arxiv 2026-06-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Profy: Interpretable Visualization of Expertise-Dependent Motor Skills Toward Supporting Piano Practice	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Profy: Interpretable Visualization of Expertise-Dependent Motor Skills Toward Supporting Piano Practice	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Few-step Generative Models as Lossy Compression	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	DUET -- Dual User Embedding Transformers for Offsite Conversion Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	ANCHOR: Autoregressive Non-intrusive Chunk-Ordered Refinement for Joint Multi-Resolution Speech Quality Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.60	Prefilling-dLLM: Predictive Prefilling for Long-Context Inference in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Planar-Sector LOS Guidance for Interception of Agile Targets with Lifting-Wing Quadcopters	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.60	A Friendly Phantom: Late-time AdS-to-dS transition and cosmological tensions	arxiv 2026-06-09	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	facebookresearch/fastText v0.9.2	github_release 2020-04-28	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.60	ARGAN INC (AGX) (CIK 0000100591)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.60	Latent World Recovery for Multimodal Learning with Missing Modalities	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Adapting Prithvi-EO for Fallow Detection for Food-Water Nexus: ViT-Adapter Necks and Parameter-Efficient Backbone tuning of Geospatial Foundation Model	arxiv 2026-06-10	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.60	Quality Adaptive Angular Margin Learning for Respiratory Sound Classification	arxiv 2026-06-10	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	TextHOI-3D: Text-to-3D Hand-Object Interaction via Discrete Multi-View Generation and Joint Mesh Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	MultiToP: Learning to Patch Visual Tokens to Mitigate Hallucinations in Video Large Multimodal Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.60	What Limits Does Quantization Place on Dense Top-$k$ Retrieval? A Theoretical Study	arxiv 2026-06-10	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.60	JailbreakOPT: Tool-Assisted Iterative Jailbreak Prompt Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-09	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.60	Adjoint Method versus Physics-Informed Neural Networks in PDE-Constrained Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Adjoint Method versus Physics-Informed Neural Networks in PDE-Constrained Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.60	PianoKontext: Expressive Performance Rendering from Deadpan Context	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Quantum Occam Learning: Sample-Supported Expressibility for Circuit-Based Quantum Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	NARRAS: Edge-Triggered Distributed Inference for CSI-Based Localization in Vehicular IoT Networks	arxiv 2026-06-10	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.60	Conformal Bayes under Label Shift: Post-Hoc Calibration vs. In-Training Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Capacity-Constrained Online Convex Optimization with Delayed Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	DeMix: Debugging Training Data with Mixed Data Error Types by Investigating Influence Vectors	arxiv 2026-06-10	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	Kuramoto Attention: Synchronizing Self-Attention on the Torus	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Spatially Masked Regression Reveals Local and Distributed Predictability in Electrophysiological Recordings	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Decoding Multimodal Cues: Unveiling the Implicit Meaning Behind Hateful Videos	arxiv 2026-06-10	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.60	Pre-AF 13: An Interpretable Atrial Fibrillation Risk Score Mined from Discharge Reports	arxiv 2026-06-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	VLGA: Vision-Language-Geometry-Action Models for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	Human-Guided Co-Manipulation of Carbon Fiber Plies	arxiv 2026-06-10	243_030 Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots Dara Khosrowshahi	Robotics	31%
0.60	Improving Human Diving Endurance with a Field-Deployable, Untethered Exoskeleton	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.60	Improving Human Diving Endurance with a Field-Deployable, Untethered Exoskeleton	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_024 Automated robotics and AI-powered monitoring will establish a global network of BioVaults — a 21st-century high-tech backup plan for life on Earth; as humanity faces potential extinction of nearly half of Earth's species by 2050 due to climate and habi... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.60	Planar-Sector LOS Guidance for Interception of Agile Targets with Lifting-Wing Quadcopters	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.60	Entanglement generation between field modes mediated by a fluctuating conducting wall	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_lammps-0.4.0	github_release 2026-02-17	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.10.0	github_release 2025-10-23	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.9.0	github_release 2025-10-09	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.60	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	SmartFont: Dynamic Condition Allocation for Few-Shot Font Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	Multi-Field Hybrid Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Maritime Accident Root Cause Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	NTS-CoT: Mitigating Hallucinations in LLM-based News Timeline Summarization with Chain-of-Thought Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Zero-source LLM Hallucination Detection with Human-like Criteria Probing	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	JSCGC: Joint Source-Channel-Generation Coding for Wireless Generative Communications	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.60	EquiDexFlow: Contact-Grounded SE(3)-Equivariant Dexterous Grasp Generative Flows	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Dolph2Vec: Self-Supervised Representations of Dolphin Vocalizations	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	The Tone of Awareness: Topic, Sentiment, and Toxicity Maps During Mental Health Month on TikTok	arxiv 2026-06-11	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	When Does Mixing Help? Analyzing Query Embedding Interpolation in Multilingual Dense Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-11	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	MultiToP: Learning to Patch Visual Tokens to Mitigate Hallucinations in Video Large Multimodal Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.60	Comparing Commercial Depth Sensor Accuracy for Medical Applications	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	A ribbon ZX calculus for gauge theory	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	How traversable is a traversable wormhole?	arxiv 2026-06-10	240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	FDA BLA761458: EXDENSUR (DEPEMOKIMAB-ULAA) — GLAXOSMITHKLINE LLC	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA BLA761458: EXDENSUR (DEPEMOKIMAB-ULAA) — GLAXOSMITHKLINE LLC	fda 2026-06-10	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.60	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-13	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.7.0	github_release 2019-06-20	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 85%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.60	Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will this resolves to Yes or No(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-06-14	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.60	Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?	manifold 2026-06-13	232_036 AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. Ben Horowitz	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.60	facebookresearch/QuaterNet v1.0	github_release 2018-06-06	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.60	Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	68%
0.60	Will England win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.60	Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5)(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.6.2	github_release 2022-04-28	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.60	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Tereza Valentova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.60	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	C3.ai, Inc. (AI) (CIK 0001577526)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.60	Learning aligned EEG representations with subject-specific encoders	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Who Should Lead Decoding Now? Tracking Reliable Trajectories for Ensembling Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.60	Who Should Lead Decoding Now? Tracking Reliable Trajectories for Ensembling Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	RealityBridge: Bridging Editable 3D Gaussian Splatting Driving Simulations and Real-World Videos	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.60	A Comprehensive Survey of Medical Image Segmentation: Challenges, Benchmarks, and Beyond	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Cross-Silo De-Anonymization Under Local Differential Privacy: Threat Model, Phase Transition, and Coordination Necessity	arxiv 2026-06-15	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	44%
0.60	Cross-Silo De-Anonymization Under Local Differential Privacy: Threat Model, Phase Transition, and Coordination Necessity	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%