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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 230_015 For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | ||
| 0.64 | GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Gold price above 5,100.00 in June 2026(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Will Qwen 3.6+ 122B A10B be open weights before July 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.64 | Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.64 | Will China Collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-24 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.64 | will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $80K in May?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 243_036 Price of rides will come down with autonomous driving Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 49% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Terminator2 earn more profit than ShogGoth over the next month?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 240_002 Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.64 | Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.64 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Litecoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | Will BTC-USD close below $90,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Top team score for ARML 2026 greater than 235?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | CMQ_011 AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not concurrently, and not after. Demis Hassabis | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $82K in June?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.64 | Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Blue Moon be launched on Falcon Heavy ?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 58% | |
| 0.64 | Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 49% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators | Macro/Economy | 54% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Elon Musk say the word “misanthropic” again before the end of 2027?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 229_014 Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 35% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | ||
| 0.64 | Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | |
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin trade above $90,000 between now and June 1, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) close above $85,000 on June 1, 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 54% | ||
| 0.64 | Will The Democrats Win Every Presidential Election from 2028 to 2040?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $94 on June 10, 2026?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin be below 71K at end of week?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.64 | Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs | Labor/Jobs | 39% | |
| 0.64 | Silver price above 90.000 in June 2026(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.64 | Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.64 | Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.64 | can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.64 | Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 242_049 W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will warfare robots kill multitudes in a city?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 229_041 Robots will bring abundance and a 'sci-fi future' where it will 'feel like 2080 up in here.' Brett Adcock | Other | 37% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will HackerNews #1 story score go up in 24h?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.64 | Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will OKLO reach $200 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.64 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% |