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78,926 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 89 of 171, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 56%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will DELL close above $470 this week?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.60 | Will DELL close above $470 this week?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Elon musk live to see humanity become a Kardashev 3 civilization?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 235_032 Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. Elon Musk | Robotics | 16% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-25 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_018 SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses. SMIC (All-In Podcast analysis) | Semis | 47% | ||
| 0.60 | Will MIT accept anyone from their 2026 waitlist?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | Limitless Markets US approved as a DCM by the CFTC in 2026?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | Will my friend Aryan make ARML tb(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Will Terminator2 have at least 200 Moltbook followers by 2026-05-18?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-06 | INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 56% | ||
| 0.60 | Will I break a bone before the end of 2027?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | will i get gold at amm 2026(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-08 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | ||
| 0.60 | Hentavirus pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Will this market get between 55-75 unique traders?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | Will SPY close above $737.62 on Friday, May 15, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.60 | Will the USD to IDR rate reach IDR 17,845 before 17th August 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | INF_048 Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. IEA | Energy | 48% | |
| 0.60 | Can anyone get talkie-1930 to describe Chomskian recursive syntax?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 232_044 There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | Andy Burnham PM before 1 November 2026?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.60 | Will I buy gasoline for more than $5/gallon this year (USA)(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.60 | will there be a new llm release by the end of may?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt | Education | 51% | |
| 0.60 | 2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Final (TBD beats TBD)(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will I be able to convince Claudius Maximus in any Convince the Machine?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Will SPY close above $750 on Monday, May 18, 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.60 | Will ETH-USD close above $3,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will ETH-USD close above $3,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.60 | Will I get catch an illness before Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will I get catch an illness before Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 55% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-18 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 42% |