Validations Queue
78,110 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 69 of 168, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | $10m prize for 100m record claimed in 2027(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Will Kalshi be operational and legal in the US on January 1, 2030?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.61 | Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.61 | Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 51% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Sydney Metro exceed 70,000,000 trips taken in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-03 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-04 | COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack | Space | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.61 | can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.61 | Will a Claude Fable model be released Tuesday June 9th?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.61 | Will a Claude Fable model be released Tuesday June 9th?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 47% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Wales become a US state before 2045?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-16 | SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | Will anyone other than me make mana on this market?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 230_037 Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. Dave Blundin | Consumer | 50% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-29 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.61 | Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Will Build a Bear outperform the SP500 for the year of 2027?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.61 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.61 | Will Android 17 be officially released to consumers by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 845(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | Bitcoin $85K in May?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-08 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-08 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 229_012 Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-11 | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. Kevin Weil | AI/Agents | 74% | ||
| 0.61 | Will I be promoted to Mana Gold by 12 am May 31, 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-13 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 237_019 Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Dan complain about the cost of NYC unprompted?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 234_039 Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city Dave Blundin | Real Estate | 50% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-19 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 35% | ||
| 0.61 | Next James Bond officially announced before end of June 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% |