Validations Queue
75,032 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 59 of 97, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
Pending (total)
75,032
Reviewed
13
Filtered
19,236
page 59 / 97
Showing on page
200
Filters
URL params control source + min-similarity threshold
Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-07?(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2025-05-02 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-10.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-8.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will AC Goianiense vs. São Bernardo FC end in a draw?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: ZYB Esport vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-09-23 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Delhi Capitals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-24 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: REBORN vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-03-19 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-10-22 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Knicks (-6.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-31 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Monaco vs. Nanterre(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Monaco vs. Nanterre(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-01-08 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-09-19 | S_COMPUTE_STARGATE_FAILURE Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029 | compute_scale | 15% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-3.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-07-24 | 246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin | AI | 42% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-12-15 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-6.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-7.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-13.5)(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Carolina Panthers next?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the New England Patriots next?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-01-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-1.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Nanterre vs. Monaco(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the Dallas Cowboys next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | |
| 0.58 | Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | 241_017 Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built Eric Schmidt | Energy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Ashlyn Krueger be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5)(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.58 | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Noah Okafor be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | O/U 1.5 Rounds(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | O/U 1.5 Rounds(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Argentina (-2.5)(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Athletics (-1.5)(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-13 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Mexico (-2.5)(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-08 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-03-06 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-12-10 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-12-10 | 236_034 Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 56% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-03-19 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 55% | |
| 0.58 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Kash Patel out by April 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-03 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | |
| 0.58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2025-07-24 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Lightning (-1.5)(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% |