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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-13	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.7.2	github_release 2019-07-19	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.61	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-14	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?	manifold 2026-06-13	247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	55%
0.61	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-29	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	[Free Mana] Bot Cucking Market	manifold 2026-06-15	234_032 Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	29%
0.61	facebookresearch/pytorch3d V0.7.8	github_release 2024-09-13	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.0	github_release 2022-08-10	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-16	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	How many traders will I have by the end of June?	manifold 2026-06-12	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.61	Scalable Circuit Learning for Interpreting Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	RAID: Semantic Graph Diffusion for True Cold-Start and Cross-Lingual Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	MA-SBI: Misspecification-Aware Simulation-Based Inference via Side-Channel Guidance	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Robust Spoofed Speech Detection via Temporal Pyramid Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	From Affect Prediction to Affect Forecasting: Evidence for Distinct Information Sources in Longitudinal Text	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	Unified Multimodal Model for Brain MRI Imputation and Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Uncertainty Quality of VGGT: An Analysis on the DTU Benchmark Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	Variance Reduction for Non-Log-Concave Sampling with Applications to Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	The Complexity of Min-Max Optimization for Quadratic Polynomials	arxiv 2026-06-15	231_034 Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it suddenly becomes massive. Dave Blundin	Energy	54%
0.61	Factorized Neural Operators Decompose Dynamic and Persistent Responses	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Context-Aware Markov VAE for CSI Compression in Wireless Systems	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	On the Entropy Formula for Real, Complex, and Quaternionic Deep Linear Networks	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Contrastive Learning for Seismic Horizon Tracking with Domain-Specific Priors	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	To forget is to preserve: Machine Unlearning for 3D medical image segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.61	Stop the Sampler! Classifier-Based Adaptive Stopping for Sampling Kernels	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	Beyond the Blood Draw: Explainable Machine Learning for Non-Invasive Dysglycemia Risk Screening	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.61	Inference-Time Decision Calibration for Temporal Classification	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Learning the generating functional for variance reduction in lattice QCD	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Learning ground state observables from quantum computing experiments	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.61	Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data	arxiv 2026-06-14	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	Scalar-pathway fidelity improves physical accuracy in short-range equivariant interatomic potentials	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Revisiting the Systematicity in Negation in the Era of In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	Multi-Turn Reflective Masking Elicits Reasoning in Mask Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	Vernier: Probing Representational Misalignment Behind Lexical Gaps in Causal Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-14	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	ExoTraj: A General Lower-limb Exoskeleton Assistance Policy for Complex Environments	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	MVOFormer: Flow-Semantic Transformer for Robust Monocular Visual Odometry	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	TO-SoFiT: Topology Optimization of Hydraulic Soft Fish Tail Design for programmable undulating locomotion	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	FDA ANDA212374: EMPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (EMPAGLIFLOZIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LIMITED	fda 2026-06-11	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.42.0	github_release 2026-06-16	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Eury Perez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will one new couple who met at 2026 LO--->Vibecamp festival season have a healthy baby by the first day of August 2027(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-15	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.61	MoCo-AIS: A Contrastive Learning Framework for Similarity Computation of Vessel Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-16	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	See First, Answer Later: Visual Evidence Pre-Alignment via Sufficiency-Driven RL	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_049 Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Handling Feature Heterogeneity with Learnable Graph Patches	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	TerraTransfer: Learning End-to-End Driving Policies Without Expert Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Adaptive Volumetric Mechanical Property Fields Invariant to Resolution	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Meta-classification of one-class classification models using ranking correlation and nearest neighbor	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	Physics-Constrained Neural Networks for Improved Short-Term Weather Forecasting: A Case Study over the South Pacific	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Public transit gains and spatially uneven travel demand changes after NYC congestion pricing	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_064 Within 15-20 years, the vast majority of global ride-hailing trips will be fulfilled by autonomous robotic vehicles — with human labor entirely removed from driving/delivery and transitioned to "mission control" roles (fleet maintenance, rapid rechargi... Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	58%
0.61	A Bayesian Boolean Matrix Factorization with Application to Copy Number Analysis in Cancer	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.61	CheckMIABench: Firm Foundations For Membership Inference Attacks on Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Amortized Probabilistic Retrieval of Atmospheric CO2 from OCO-2 Spectra Using Deep Learning with Laplace Approximations and Normalizing Flows	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk	Energy	62%
0.61	Tight $L_\infty$ Sample Complexity for Low-Degree and Sparse Boolean Polynomials	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Sum-of-Squares Degree Barriers for the Reweighted-Hinge Method in Robust Halfspace Learning: A Christoffel-Function Characterization	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Constrained Diffusion Models with Primal-Dual Inference	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Towards Fast GNN Surrogates for CO2 Migration in Complex Geological Formations	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Fine-tuning LLMs for Passive Depression Severity Estimation from AI Mental Health Dialogue	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Self-Generated Error Training for Token Editing in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	245_025 Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	80%
0.61	Self-Generated Error Training for Token Editing in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	The Critical Role of Model Selection in Causal Inference: A Comparative Analysis of Classification Models within the InferBERT Framework for Pharmacovigilance	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Black hole equations of state and response functions	arxiv 2026-06-15	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will a Midjourney Scanner be available for paid public full-body scans in the US by Dec 31, 2027?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-18	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	Will anyone other than me make mana on this market?(market prob: 96%)	manifold 2026-06-18	239_022 Future AI will care about power/mass rather than human currency Elon Musk	AI	36%
0.61	Will anyone other than me make mana on this market?(market prob: 96%)	manifold 2026-06-18	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.61	A Hybrid LSTM--Vision Transformer Architecture for Predicting HRRR Forecast Errors	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	TRAP: Benchmark for Task-completion and Resistance to Active Privacy-extraction	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	Domain-Shift Aware Neural Networks for Unbalance Characterization in Rotating Systems	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_045 Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoid is the bet. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.61	Confidence is Not Reliability: Rethinking MC Dropout in Brain Tumour Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Risk Stratification for ICU Delirium using Pervasive Ambient Sensing Information	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.61	Structured Inference with Large Language Gibbs	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	OpenAnt: LLM-Powered Vulnerability Discovery Through Code Decomposition, Adversarial Verification, and Dynamic Testing	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Semantic Robustness Certification for Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Toward Simultaneously Optimal Regret in U-Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	From Sparse Features to Trustworthy Proxies: Certifying SAE-Based Interpretability	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Modeling Branches for Active Manipulation using Iterative Parameter Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.61	FAST-LIVGO: A Degeneracy-Robust LiDAR-Inertial-Visual-GNSS Fusion Odometry	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Viking Hill Dataset: A Lidar-Radar-Camera Dataset for Detection and Segmentation in Forest Scenes	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	High-Degree-of-Freedom Lightweight Bioinspired Leg for Enhanced Mobility in Small Robots	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	The Collins-Soper kernel from a vacuum soft function	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-19	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	SARLO-80: Worldwide Slant SAR Language Optic Dataset 80cm	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.61	SafeSpec: Fast and Safe LLM via Dynamic Reflective Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	LOKI: Memory-Free Null-Space Constrained Lifelong Knowledge Editing	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	Configurable Clinical Information Extraction with Agentic RAG: What Works, What Breaks, and Why	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.61	Judging to Improve: A De-biased VLM-as-3D-Judge Protocol for Single-Image 3D Generation	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Quantum ring all-reduce: communication and privacy advantages for distributed learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Integrating national forest inventory, airborne lidar, and satellite imagery for wall-to-wall mapping of forest structure with computer vision	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.61	Off-Policy Evaluation for Missingness-Aware Policies in MDPs with Rewards Missing Not at Random	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Pose6DAug: Physically Plausible Multi-view Object Swapping for Robot Data Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.61	Optimal Coarse Correlated Equilibria in Mean Field Games: Linear Programming and No-Regret Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Exploring the potential of AlphaEarth and TESSERA embeddings for Fine-scale Local Climate Zone Mapping: A case study across five cities in Switzerland	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.61	Investigating Human-Model Discrepancies in Speech Quality Assessment via Acoustic and Prosodic Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Multimodal Concept Bottleneck Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Prompt, Plan, Extract: Zero-Shot Agentic LLMs Workflows for Lung Pathology Extraction from Clinical Narratives	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Calibrating Generative Models to Feature Distributions with MMD Finetuning	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.61	Spectral Retrieval-Augmented Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	NEST: Narrative Event Structures in Time for Long Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Route-Constrained Robust Fusion Estimation for MEMS/GNSS Integrated Navigation of Unmanned Ground Vehicles in GNSS Degraded Environments	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.61	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2025-12-19	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-20	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Will eldar grow his dick by 5 cm by the end of June 2026?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-20	S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033	humanoid_deployment	10%
0.61	Will I stay in masters conditional on Starmer not being out before July?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.61	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.61	Spread: Croatia (-1.5)(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Erling Haaland: 1+ goals(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-22	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.61	Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Spread: Japan (-1.5)(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.61	Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Spread: Croatia (-2.5)(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	It is more likely that the Moon is made of Parmesan cheese than Gouda cheese [Convince the Machine #17](market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-06-23	234_029 Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	30%
0.61	Solve for the Hyperparameter, Skip the Search: Kolmogorov-Optimal Scaling Laws for Spline Regression	arxiv 2026-06-22	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.61	Field-level weak lensing cosmology with $<100$ simulations using multifidelity simulation-based inference	arxiv 2026-06-22	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Field-level weak lensing cosmology with $<100$ simulations using multifidelity simulation-based inference	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	MuPPET: A Benchmark for Contextual Privacy of LLM Assistants in Multi-Party Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Neural Architecture Search of Sample Reweighting Networks for Complex Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-06-22	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.61	Neural Architecture Search of Sample Reweighting Networks for Complex Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-06-22	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	Graph-Enhanced Large Language Models for Spatial Search	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb	AI	62%
0.61	Orthogonal Representation Editing: Decoupling Semantic Entanglement in Batch Knowledge Editing of LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	From CVE to CWE: Syscall-Based HIDS Generalisation	arxiv 2026-06-21	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Quantifying the Agreement Between Data-Influence and Data-Similarity to Understand LLM Behavior	arxiv 2026-06-22	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	Subject-Level Unknown-Identity Identification from Leap Motion Controller 2 Hand Landmarks	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Learning Graphs through Continuous Information Entropy Fields	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	From Complaint Narratives to Monetary Relief: A Hybrid Machine Learning Framework for CFPB Consumer Complaints	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_004 Equity markets will algorithmically reward corporate entities that utilize AI to slash headcount while ruthlessly punishing those that retain human-heavy operational structures — transforming AI from productivity tool into an economic surveillance mech... Andrew Yang	Markets/Stocks	30%
0.61	A Markov Chain Approach to Preference Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Stationary Robust Mean-Field Games under Model Mismatches	arxiv 2026-06-21	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Structured Hyperedge Adaptation for Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning of Vision Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-21	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Kiwano: A Cutting-Edge Open-Source Toolkit for Speaker Verification	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Breaking the Likelihood Trap: Variance-Calibrated Modulation for Large Language Model Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	A Reduced Order Model for Emergent Mechanics in Woven Systems	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Autonomous Subsea Cable Search and Tracking with Graph-Optimised Priors and Visual Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-22	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	Improving Robotic Imitation Learning via Trajectory Standardization	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Dynamics of ($Z_N$) Domain Walls in SU(N) Gauge Theories	arxiv 2026-06-21	230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	FDA ANDA040608: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — MIKART	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-24	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Free Lottery (radiation domination end)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-24	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Props about Meta's Prediction Markets ("Arena")	manifold 2026-06-23	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will June 2026 CPI inflation (YoY) come in above 4.2%?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-23	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.61	IV-CoT: Implicit Visual Chain-of-Thought for Structure-Aware Text-to-Image Generation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Solving Inverse Problems of Chaotic Systems with Bidirectional Conditional Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.61	EG-VQA: Benchmarking Verifiable Video Question Answering with Grounded Temporal Evidence	arxiv 2026-06-23	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.61	When CQs Go Wrong: Challenges in CQ Verification with OE-Assist	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	CompressKV: Semantic-Retrieval-Guided KV-Cache Compression for Resource-Efficient Long-Context LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Towards Federated Long-Tailed Graph Learning: An Energy-Guided Dual Decoupling Approach	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	FlowR2A: Learning Reward-to-Action Distribution for Multimodal Driving Planning	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Breaking the Filter Bubble: A Semantic Pareto-DQN Framework for Multi-Objective Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	RASC+: Retrieval-Constrained LLM Adjudication for Clinical Value Set Authoring	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	ARIA: Adaptive Region-Based Importance Allocation for Conditional Diffusion Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-22	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	A Physics-Informed Fourier-Wavelet Transformer for Multiscale Computational Fluid Dynamics Surrogate Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-23	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	Deep numerical schemes for systems of Ergodic BSDEs with applications to regime-switching forward utilities	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	A Comparative Study of Bayesian Contextual Bandits for Real-Time Warehouse Sorter Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	The Degeneracy Distillery	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Reconstructing GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage with Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks: An Application to South America	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	SHERLOC: Structured Diagnostic Localization for Code Repair Agents	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.61	The Warrant Gap: Claim-Conditioned Re-scoring for Fact-Checking	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	To Compare, or Not to Compare: On Methodological Practices in Evaluating Social Bias	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Best Preprocessing Techniques for Sentiment Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-23	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.61	Enforcing Human-like Kinematics in Dexterous Piano Playing via Adversarial Posture Regularization	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	FDA ANDA040203: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ACTAVIS ELIZABETH	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA078316: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE AND IBUPROFEN (IBUPROFEN) — BARR LABS INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%