Validations Queue
80,311 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 145 of 176, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Will Stuttgart 21 open in 2031?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_041 Maine data center moratorium gives other states / Elon time to move compute to orbit. Peter Diamandis | Space | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-11 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the Jews admit that they control the weather before 2030?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | INF_021 AI data centers are the 'steel mills of the 21st century' — humanity will miss near-term climate-change mitigation goals, with the bet that a sufficiently capable AI later solves the climate crisis retroactively. Eric Schmidt | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before Europeans?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.57 | Starmer out by the end of this week(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Does Starship flight 150 happen before New Glenn 15?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 242_038 Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Will I get chicken katsu tonight?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 243_029 Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban markets Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Free Lottery (dark matter & banana)(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-22 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 241_034 One or two frontier AI companies in Europe Eric Schmidt | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-29 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | US-Iran negotiations resume before June 2026? (check description)(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | VALVE?!(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 234_036 Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 29% | ||
| 0.57 | Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-02 | IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 23% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | AUT_018 Level 1 customer support sector functionally extinct and replaced by autonomous voice/text agents within 2-3 years, slashing operational costs by up to 50%; 2026 industry-defining blockbuster M&A deal exceeding $500 billion in AI sector; substantive ea... Jason Calacanis | Labor/Jobs | 29% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Rudy Giuliani die in 2026?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_003 NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kalshi or Polymarket be convicted of fraud before 2029?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-07 | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 242_004 Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-09 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.57 | Will The_real_LV hit 150 followers on twitch?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-10 | COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | Alternate requested FairlyRandom market(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 234_020 AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Will national dry van spot rate be $2.00–$2.25/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-15 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% |