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80,311 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 143 of 176, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-27 | COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 48% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | Next James Bond officially announced before end of June 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Skeletor is gonna reference the meme “until we meet again”?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 229_032 Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis | Energy | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | Will any 2026 World Cup match be disrupted by security or weather?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I be promoted to platinum at the end of this season?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-10 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I reach a streak of 100 in Wordle?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Israel hold an election in 2027?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-13 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-13 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-14 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis | Space | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-15 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump Tweet within the next 7 days?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 241_059 Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems Peter Diamandis | Energy | 54% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | will x have a significant other
by the end of ross(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 40% | |
| 0.57 | will x have a significant other
by the end of ross(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 242_039 NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator) | Space | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-21 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 67% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the winner of the 2026 Kentucky Derby finish in under 2:02.00?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.57 | USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-30 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% |